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Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model.

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Title: Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model.
Authors: Morrison, A. L.1,2 ariel.morrison@colorado.edu, Kay, J. E.1,2, Frey, W. R.1,2, Chepfer, H.3,4, Guzman, R.3
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres. Jan2019, Vol. 124 Issue 2, p1003-1020. 18p.
Subject Terms: *Climate change, *Sea ice, *Global warming, *Global temperature changes, Atmospheric models
Abstract: Over the next century, the Arctic is projected to become seasonally sea ice‐free. Assessing feedback between clouds and sea ice as the Arctic loses sea ice cover is important because of clouds' radiative impacts on the Arctic surface. Here we investigate present‐day and future Arctic cloud‐sea ice relationships in a fully coupled global climate model forced by business‐as‐usual increases in greenhouse gases. Model evaluation using a lidar simulator and lidar satellite observations shows agreement between present‐day modeled and observed cloud‐sea ice relationships. Summer clouds are unaffected by sea ice variability, but more fall clouds occur over open water than over sea ice. Because the model reproduces observed cloud‐sea ice relationships and their underlying physical mechanisms, the model is used to assess future Arctic cloud‐sea ice feedback. With future sea ice loss, modeled summer cloud fraction, vertical structure, and optical depth barely change. Future sea ice loss does not influence summer clouds, but summer sea ice loss does drive fall cloud changes by increasing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the summertime ocean and the latent and sensible heat released into the atmosphere when the Sun sets in fall. The future fall boundary layer deepens and clouds become more opaque over newly open water. The future nonsummer longwave cloud radiative effect strengthens as nonsummer cloud cover increases. In summary, we find no evidence for a summer cloud‐sea ice feedback but strong evidence for a positive cloud‐sea ice feedback that emerges during nonsummer months as the Arctic warms and sea ice disappears. Key Points: No summer cloud‐sea ice feedback emerges in a global climate model in a future sea ice‐free ArcticFuture fall clouds become more opaque and the boundary layer deepens over newly open waterAnnual net Arctic cloud‐sea ice feedback is positive but the magnitude may be underestimated in this study [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Geophysical+Research%2E+Atmospheres%22">Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres</searchLink>. Jan2019, Vol. 124 Issue 2, p1003-1020. 18p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Sea+ice%22">Sea ice</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Global+warming%22">Global warming</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Global+temperature+changes%22">Global temperature changes</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Over the next century, the Arctic is projected to become seasonally sea ice‐free. Assessing feedback between clouds and sea ice as the Arctic loses sea ice cover is important because of clouds' radiative impacts on the Arctic surface. Here we investigate present‐day and future Arctic cloud‐sea ice relationships in a fully coupled global climate model forced by business‐as‐usual increases in greenhouse gases. Model evaluation using a lidar simulator and lidar satellite observations shows agreement between present‐day modeled and observed cloud‐sea ice relationships. Summer clouds are unaffected by sea ice variability, but more fall clouds occur over open water than over sea ice. Because the model reproduces observed cloud‐sea ice relationships and their underlying physical mechanisms, the model is used to assess future Arctic cloud‐sea ice feedback. With future sea ice loss, modeled summer cloud fraction, vertical structure, and optical depth barely change. Future sea ice loss does not influence summer clouds, but summer sea ice loss does drive fall cloud changes by increasing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the summertime ocean and the latent and sensible heat released into the atmosphere when the Sun sets in fall. The future fall boundary layer deepens and clouds become more opaque over newly open water. The future nonsummer longwave cloud radiative effect strengthens as nonsummer cloud cover increases. In summary, we find no evidence for a summer cloud‐sea ice feedback but strong evidence for a positive cloud‐sea ice feedback that emerges during nonsummer months as the Arctic warms and sea ice disappears. Key Points: No summer cloud‐sea ice feedback emerges in a global climate model in a future sea ice‐free ArcticFuture fall clouds become more opaque and the boundary layer deepens over newly open waterAnnual net Arctic cloud‐sea ice feedback is positive but the magnitude may be underestimated in this study [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1029/2018JD029142
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      – TitleFull: Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Future Feedback in the CESM1 Climate Model.
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              Text: Jan2019
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