View in EDS HTML Full Text PDF Full Text

Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces.
Authors: Fronzek, Stefan1 stefan.fronzek@ymparisto.fi, Carter, Timothy R.1 tim.carter@ymparisto.fi, Pirttioja, Nina1 nina.pirttioja@ymparisto.fi, Alkemade, Rob2,3 rob.alkemade@wur.nl, Audsley, Eric4 EAudsley@aol.com, Bugmann, Harald5 harald.bugmann@env.ethz.ch, Flörke, Martina6 floerke@usf.uni-kassel.de, Holman, Ian4 i.holman@cranfield.ac.uk, Honda, Yasushi7 honda@taiiku.tsukuba.ac.jp, Ito, Akihiko8 itoh@nies.go.jp, Janes-Bassett, Victoria4,9 v.janes@lancaster.ac.uk, Lafond, Valentine5 valentine.lafond@usys.ethz.ch, Leemans, Rik2 rik.leemans@wur.nl, Mokrech, Marc10 mmokrech@hotmail.com, Nunez, Sarahi2 sarahi.nunezramos@wur.nl, Sandars, Daniel4 daniel.sandars@cranfield.ac.uk, Snell, Rebecca5,11 snell@ohio.edu, Takahashi, Kiyoshi8 ktakaha12@gmail.com, Tanaka, Akemi12 aktanaka@affrc.go.jp, Wimmer, Florian6 wimmer@usf.uni-kassel.de
Source: Regional Environmental Change. Mar2019, Vol. 19 Issue 3, p679-693. 15p.
Subject Terms: *Climate change, *Meteorological precipitation, *Temperature, *Forest productivity, Socioeconomics, Gross domestic product
Abstract: Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Regional Environmental Change is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: GreenFILE
Full text is not displayed to guests.
FullText Links:
  – Type: pdflink
Text:
  Availability: 1
Header DbId: 8gh
DbLabel: GreenFILE
An: 135326354
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fronzek%2C+Stefan%22">Fronzek, Stefan</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> stefan.fronzek@ymparisto.fi</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Carter%2C+Timothy+R%2E%22">Carter, Timothy R.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> tim.carter@ymparisto.fi</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pirttioja%2C+Nina%22">Pirttioja, Nina</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> nina.pirttioja@ymparisto.fi</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Alkemade%2C+Rob%22">Alkemade, Rob</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo><i> rob.alkemade@wur.nl</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Audsley%2C+Eric%22">Audsley, Eric</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><i> EAudsley@aol.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bugmann%2C+Harald%22">Bugmann, Harald</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><i> harald.bugmann@env.ethz.ch</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Flörke%2C+Martina%22">Flörke, Martina</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><i> floerke@usf.uni-kassel.de</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Holman%2C+Ian%22">Holman, Ian</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><i> i.holman@cranfield.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Honda%2C+Yasushi%22">Honda, Yasushi</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo><i> honda@taiiku.tsukuba.ac.jp</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ito%2C+Akihiko%22">Ito, Akihiko</searchLink><relatesTo>8</relatesTo><i> itoh@nies.go.jp</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Janes-Bassett%2C+Victoria%22">Janes-Bassett, Victoria</searchLink><relatesTo>4,9</relatesTo><i> v.janes@lancaster.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lafond%2C+Valentine%22">Lafond, Valentine</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><i> valentine.lafond@usys.ethz.ch</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Leemans%2C+Rik%22">Leemans, Rik</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><i> rik.leemans@wur.nl</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mokrech%2C+Marc%22">Mokrech, Marc</searchLink><relatesTo>10</relatesTo><i> mmokrech@hotmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nunez%2C+Sarahi%22">Nunez, Sarahi</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><i> sarahi.nunezramos@wur.nl</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sandars%2C+Daniel%22">Sandars, Daniel</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><i> daniel.sandars@cranfield.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Snell%2C+Rebecca%22">Snell, Rebecca</searchLink><relatesTo>5,11</relatesTo><i> snell@ohio.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Takahashi%2C+Kiyoshi%22">Takahashi, Kiyoshi</searchLink><relatesTo>8</relatesTo><i> ktakaha12@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tanaka%2C+Akemi%22">Tanaka, Akemi</searchLink><relatesTo>12</relatesTo><i> aktanaka@affrc.go.jp</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wimmer%2C+Florian%22">Wimmer, Florian</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><i> wimmer@usf.uni-kassel.de</i>
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Regional+Environmental+Change%22">Regional Environmental Change</searchLink>. Mar2019, Vol. 19 Issue 3, p679-693. 15p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Temperature%22">Temperature</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+productivity%22">Forest productivity</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Socioeconomics%22">Socioeconomics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gross+domestic+product%22">Gross domestic product</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Regional Environmental Change is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=8gh&AN=135326354
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 15
        StartPage: 679
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Forest productivity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Socioeconomics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Gross domestic product
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Fronzek, Stefan
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Carter, Timothy R.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Pirttioja, Nina
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Alkemade, Rob
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Audsley, Eric
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Bugmann, Harald
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Flörke, Martina
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Holman, Ian
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Honda, Yasushi
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Ito, Akihiko
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Janes-Bassett, Victoria
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Lafond, Valentine
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Leemans, Rik
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Mokrech, Marc
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Nunez, Sarahi
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Sandars, Daniel
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Snell, Rebecca
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Takahashi, Kiyoshi
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Tanaka, Akemi
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Wimmer, Florian
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2019
              Type: published
              Y: 2019
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 14363798
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 19
            – Type: issue
              Value: 3
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Regional Environmental Change
              Type: main
ResultId 1