Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States.
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| Title: | Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Butler, Christopher J.1 (AUTHOR) cbutler11@uco.edu, Larson, Matt1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Ecology & Evolution (20457758). Oct2020, Vol. 10 Issue 19, p10408-10425. 18p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Effect of human beings on climate change, *Climate change, Date palm, Palms |
| Geographic Terms: | United States |
| Abstract: | Palms (Arecaceae) are a relatively speciose family and provide materials for food, construction, and handicraft, especially in the tropics. They are frequently used as paleo‐indicators for megathermal climates, and therefore, it is logical to predict that palms will benefit from predicted warmer temperatures under anthropogenic climate change. We created species distribution models to explore the projected ranges of five widespread southeastern North American palm species (Rhapidophyllum hystrix, Sabal etonia, Sabal minor, Sabal palmetto, and Serenoa repens) under four climate change scenarios through 2070. We project that the amount of habitat with >50% suitability for S. etonia will decline by a median of 50% by 2070, while the amount of habitat with >50% suitability S. minor will decline by a median of 97%. In contrast, the amount of suitable habitat for Rhapidophyllum hystrix will remain stable, while the amount of suitable habitat for Serenoa repens will slightly increase. The projected distribution for S. palmetto will increase substantially, by a median of approximately 21% across all scenarios. The centroid of the range of each species will shift generally north at a median rate of 23.5 km/decade. These five palm species have limited dispersal ability and require a relatively long time to mature and set fruit. Consequently, it is likely that the change in the distribution of these palms will lag behind the projected changes in climate. However, Arecaceae can modify physiological responses to heat and drought, which may permit these palms to persist as local conditions become increasingly inappropriate. Nonetheless, this plasticity is unlikely to indefinitely prevent local extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | GreenFILE |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: 8gh DbLabel: GreenFILE An: 146382201 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Butler%2C+Christopher+J%2E%22">Butler, Christopher J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> cbutler11@uco.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Larson%2C+Matt%22">Larson, Matt</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecology+%26+Evolution+%2820457758%29%22">Ecology & Evolution (20457758)</searchLink>. Oct2020, Vol. 10 Issue 19, p10408-10425. 18p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Effect+of+human+beings+on+climate+change%22">Effect of human beings on climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Date+palm%22">Date palm</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Palms%22">Palms</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Palms (Arecaceae) are a relatively speciose family and provide materials for food, construction, and handicraft, especially in the tropics. They are frequently used as paleo‐indicators for megathermal climates, and therefore, it is logical to predict that palms will benefit from predicted warmer temperatures under anthropogenic climate change. We created species distribution models to explore the projected ranges of five widespread southeastern North American palm species (Rhapidophyllum hystrix, Sabal etonia, Sabal minor, Sabal palmetto, and Serenoa repens) under four climate change scenarios through 2070. We project that the amount of habitat with >50% suitability for S. etonia will decline by a median of 50% by 2070, while the amount of habitat with >50% suitability S. minor will decline by a median of 97%. In contrast, the amount of suitable habitat for Rhapidophyllum hystrix will remain stable, while the amount of suitable habitat for Serenoa repens will slightly increase. The projected distribution for S. palmetto will increase substantially, by a median of approximately 21% across all scenarios. The centroid of the range of each species will shift generally north at a median rate of 23.5 km/decade. These five palm species have limited dispersal ability and require a relatively long time to mature and set fruit. Consequently, it is likely that the change in the distribution of these palms will lag behind the projected changes in climate. However, Arecaceae can modify physiological responses to heat and drought, which may permit these palms to persist as local conditions become increasingly inappropriate. Nonetheless, this plasticity is unlikely to indefinitely prevent local extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1002/ece3.6697 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 18 StartPage: 10408 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Effect of human beings on climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Date palm Type: general – SubjectFull: Palms Type: general – SubjectFull: United States Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Butler, Christopher J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Larson, Matt IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 10 Text: Oct2020 Type: published Y: 2020 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 20457758 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 10 – Type: issue Value: 19 Titles: – TitleFull: Ecology & Evolution (20457758) Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
