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A stochastic model of jaguar abundance in the Peruvian Amazon under climate variation scenarios.

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Title: A stochastic model of jaguar abundance in the Peruvian Amazon under climate variation scenarios.
Authors: Burrage, Kevin1 (AUTHOR) kevin.burrage@qut.edu.au, Burrage, Pamela1 (AUTHOR), Davis, Jacqueline2,3 (AUTHOR), Bednarz, Tomasz1 (AUTHOR), Kim, June1 (AUTHOR), Vercelloni, Julie1 (AUTHOR), Peterson, Erin E.1 (AUTHOR), Mengersen, Kerrie1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Ecology & Evolution (20457758). Oct2020, Vol. 10 Issue 19, p10829-10850. 22p.
Subject Terms: *Climate change, Jaguar, Stochastic models, Prey availability, Predation
Geographic Terms: South America
Abstract: The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the dominant predator in Central and South America, but is now considered near‐threatened. Estimating jaguar population size is difficult, due to uncertainty in the underlying dynamical processes as well as highly variable and sparse data. We develop a stochastic temporal model of jaguar abundance in the Peruvian Amazon, taking into account prey availability, under various climate change scenarios. The model is calibrated against existing data sets and an elicitation study in Pacaya Samiria. In order to account for uncertainty and variability, we construct a population of models over four key parameters, namely three scaling parameters for aquatic, small land, and large land animals and a hunting index. We then use this population of models to construct probabilistic evaluations of jaguar populations under various climate change scenarios characterized by increasingly severe flood and drought events and discuss the implications on jaguar numbers. Results imply that jaguar populations exhibit some robustness to extreme drought and flood, but that repeated exposure to these events over short periods can result in rapid decline. However, jaguar numbers could return to stability—albeit at lower numbers—if there are periods of benign climate patterns and other relevant factors are conducive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: A stochastic model of jaguar abundance in the Peruvian Amazon under climate variation scenarios.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Burrage%2C+Kevin%22">Burrage, Kevin</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> kevin.burrage@qut.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Burrage%2C+Pamela%22">Burrage, Pamela</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Davis%2C+Jacqueline%22">Davis, Jacqueline</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bednarz%2C+Tomasz%22">Bednarz, Tomasz</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kim%2C+June%22">Kim, June</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Vercelloni%2C+Julie%22">Vercelloni, Julie</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Peterson%2C+Erin+E%2E%22">Peterson, Erin E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mengersen%2C+Kerrie%22">Mengersen, Kerrie</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecology+%26+Evolution+%2820457758%29%22">Ecology & Evolution (20457758)</searchLink>. Oct2020, Vol. 10 Issue 19, p10829-10850. 22p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Jaguar%22">Jaguar</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Stochastic+models%22">Stochastic models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prey+availability%22">Prey availability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Predation%22">Predation</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22South+America%22">South America</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the dominant predator in Central and South America, but is now considered near‐threatened. Estimating jaguar population size is difficult, due to uncertainty in the underlying dynamical processes as well as highly variable and sparse data. We develop a stochastic temporal model of jaguar abundance in the Peruvian Amazon, taking into account prey availability, under various climate change scenarios. The model is calibrated against existing data sets and an elicitation study in Pacaya Samiria. In order to account for uncertainty and variability, we construct a population of models over four key parameters, namely three scaling parameters for aquatic, small land, and large land animals and a hunting index. We then use this population of models to construct probabilistic evaluations of jaguar populations under various climate change scenarios characterized by increasingly severe flood and drought events and discuss the implications on jaguar numbers. Results imply that jaguar populations exhibit some robustness to extreme drought and flood, but that repeated exposure to these events over short periods can result in rapid decline. However, jaguar numbers could return to stability—albeit at lower numbers—if there are periods of benign climate patterns and other relevant factors are conducive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1002/ece3.6740
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 22
        StartPage: 10829
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Jaguar
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Stochastic models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Prey availability
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Predation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: South America
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: A stochastic model of jaguar abundance in the Peruvian Amazon under climate variation scenarios.
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            NameFull: Burrage, Kevin
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            – D: 01
              M: 10
              Text: Oct2020
              Type: published
              Y: 2020
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              Value: 10
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