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Long-term extreme response of an offshore turbine: How accurate are contour-based estimates?

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Title: Long-term extreme response of an offshore turbine: How accurate are contour-based estimates?
Authors: Haselsteiner, Andreas F.1 (AUTHOR) a.haselsteiner@uni-bremen.de, Frieling, Malte1 (AUTHOR) frieling@uni-bremen.de, Mackay, Ed2 (AUTHOR) e.mackay@exeter.ac.uk, Sander, Aljoscha1,3 (AUTHOR) aljoscha.sander@uni-bremen.de, Thoben, Klaus-Dieter1 (AUTHOR) thoben@uni-bremen.de
Source: Renewable Energy: An International Journal. Jan2022, Vol. 181, p945-965. 21p.
Subject Terms: *Wind power, *Water depth, *Wind turbines, Bending moment, Turbines, Structural design
Abstract: According to design standards, offshore wind turbines need to withstand environmental loads with a return period of 50 years. This work compares the extreme response along the 50-year environmental contour with the true 50-year wind turbine response. It was found that the environmental contour method that is currently described in the IEC design standard for offshore wind turbines can strongly under-predict the 50-year return value of response variables whose annual maxima typically occur during power production. The bias in the contour-based estimate of the 50-year response can be attributed to three sources: (1) the method used to construct the contour; (2) neglecting serial correlation in environmental conditions; and (3) neglecting the short-term variability in the response. In our analysis the 50-year maximum mudline overturning moment was underestimated by 4–8% by the contour-based approach that is currently recommended, whereas the bending moment at 10 m water depth was underestimated by 25–28%. This underestimation was mainly due to ignoring the short-term variability in the response. The bias associated with contour construction, an effect much discussed in recent publications, was of much smaller magnitude. • Long-term extreme response of an offshore wind turbine was estimated. • Estimates from contour methods were compared to true response. • Sources of bias of the contour-based estimates were quantified. • Bias is due to contour construction, serial correlation and short-term variability. • Applying contour method from IEC's standard can underestimate the extreme response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Renewable Energy: An International Journal is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Long-term extreme response of an offshore turbine: How accurate are contour-based estimates?
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Haselsteiner%2C+Andreas+F%2E%22">Haselsteiner, Andreas F.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> a.haselsteiner@uni-bremen.de</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Frieling%2C+Malte%22">Frieling, Malte</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> frieling@uni-bremen.de</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mackay%2C+Ed%22">Mackay, Ed</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> e.mackay@exeter.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sander%2C+Aljoscha%22">Sander, Aljoscha</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> aljoscha.sander@uni-bremen.de</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thoben%2C+Klaus-Dieter%22">Thoben, Klaus-Dieter</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> thoben@uni-bremen.de</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Renewable+Energy%3A+An+International+Journal%22">Renewable Energy: An International Journal</searchLink>. Jan2022, Vol. 181, p945-965. 21p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wind+power%22">Wind power</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+depth%22">Water depth</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wind+turbines%22">Wind turbines</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bending+moment%22">Bending moment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Turbines%22">Turbines</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Structural+design%22">Structural design</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: According to design standards, offshore wind turbines need to withstand environmental loads with a return period of 50 years. This work compares the extreme response along the 50-year environmental contour with the true 50-year wind turbine response. It was found that the environmental contour method that is currently described in the IEC design standard for offshore wind turbines can strongly under-predict the 50-year return value of response variables whose annual maxima typically occur during power production. The bias in the contour-based estimate of the 50-year response can be attributed to three sources: (1) the method used to construct the contour; (2) neglecting serial correlation in environmental conditions; and (3) neglecting the short-term variability in the response. In our analysis the 50-year maximum mudline overturning moment was underestimated by 4–8% by the contour-based approach that is currently recommended, whereas the bending moment at 10 m water depth was underestimated by 25–28%. This underestimation was mainly due to ignoring the short-term variability in the response. The bias associated with contour construction, an effect much discussed in recent publications, was of much smaller magnitude. • Long-term extreme response of an offshore wind turbine was estimated. • Estimates from contour methods were compared to true response. • Sources of bias of the contour-based estimates were quantified. • Bias is due to contour construction, serial correlation and short-term variability. • Applying contour method from IEC's standard can underestimate the extreme response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Renewable Energy: An International Journal is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.09.077
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 21
        StartPage: 945
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        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water depth
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wind turbines
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      – SubjectFull: Bending moment
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      – SubjectFull: Turbines
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      – SubjectFull: Structural design
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Long-term extreme response of an offshore turbine: How accurate are contour-based estimates?
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            NameFull: Haselsteiner, Andreas F.
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            NameFull: Frieling, Malte
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            NameFull: Mackay, Ed
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              M: 01
              Text: Jan2022
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              Y: 2022
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              Value: 181
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