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Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries.

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Title: Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries.
Authors: Egiguren, Julen1,2, Nieuwenhuijsen, M. J.1,2,3,4, Rojas-Rueda, David1,2,5 David.Rojas@colostate.edu
Source: Environmental Health Perspectives. Dec2021, Vol. 129 Issue 12, p127002-1-127002-10. 10p. 1 Color Photograph, 4 Charts, 1 Graph.
Subject Terms: *Air pollution, *Particulate matter, *Automobiles, *Health impact assessment, Relative medical risk, Traffic accidents, Confidence intervals, Mortality, Quantitative research, Physical activity, Bicycles, Descriptive statistics, Odds ratio
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Biking plays a significant role in urban mobility and has been suggested as a tool to promote public health. A recent study has proposed 2050 global biking scenarios based on large shifts from motorized vehicles to bikes. No previous studies have estimated the health impacts of global cycling scenarios, either future car-bike shift substitutions. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to quantify changes in premature mortality of 2050 global biking scenarios in urban populations from 17 countries. METHODS: Through a quantitative Health Impact Assessment, the mortality risks and benefits of replacing car trips by bike (mechanica bike and electric bike) in urban populations from 17 countries were estimated. Multiple bike scenarios were created based on current transport trends or large shifts from car trips to bike trips. We quantified the estimated change in the number of premature deaths (reduced or increased) concerning road traffic fatalities, air pollution, and physical activity. This study focuses on urban populations between 20 and 64 y old. RESULTS: We found that, among the urban populations (20–64 y old) of 17 countries, 205,424 annual premature deaths could be prevented if high bike-use scenarios are achieved by 2050 (assuming that 100% of bike trips replace car trips). If only 8% of bike trips replace car trips in a more conservative scenario, 18,589 annual premature deaths could be prevented by 2050 in the same population. In all the countries and scenarios, the mortality benefits related to bike use (rather than car use) outweighed the mortality risks. DISCUSSION: We found that global biking policies may provide important mortality benefits in 2050. Current and future bike- vs. car-trip policies should be considered key public health interventions for a healthy urban design. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9073 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Environmental Health Perspectives is the property of National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Egiguren%2C+Julen%22">Egiguren, Julen</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nieuwenhuijsen%2C+M%2E+J%2E%22">Nieuwenhuijsen, M. J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3,4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rojas-Rueda%2C+David%22">Rojas-Rueda, David</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,5</relatesTo><i> David.Rojas@colostate.edu</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Environmental+Health+Perspectives%22">Environmental Health Perspectives</searchLink>. Dec2021, Vol. 129 Issue 12, p127002-1-127002-10. 10p. 1 Color Photograph, 4 Charts, 1 Graph.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Air+pollution%22">Air pollution</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Particulate+matter%22">Particulate matter</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Automobiles%22">Automobiles</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Health+impact+assessment%22">Health impact assessment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Relative+medical+risk%22">Relative medical risk</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Traffic+accidents%22">Traffic accidents</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Confidence+intervals%22">Confidence intervals</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mortality%22">Mortality</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Quantitative+research%22">Quantitative research</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Physical+activity%22">Physical activity</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bicycles%22">Bicycles</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Descriptive+statistics%22">Descriptive statistics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Odds+ratio%22">Odds ratio</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: BACKGROUND: Biking plays a significant role in urban mobility and has been suggested as a tool to promote public health. A recent study has proposed 2050 global biking scenarios based on large shifts from motorized vehicles to bikes. No previous studies have estimated the health impacts of global cycling scenarios, either future car-bike shift substitutions. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to quantify changes in premature mortality of 2050 global biking scenarios in urban populations from 17 countries. METHODS: Through a quantitative Health Impact Assessment, the mortality risks and benefits of replacing car trips by bike (mechanica bike and electric bike) in urban populations from 17 countries were estimated. Multiple bike scenarios were created based on current transport trends or large shifts from car trips to bike trips. We quantified the estimated change in the number of premature deaths (reduced or increased) concerning road traffic fatalities, air pollution, and physical activity. This study focuses on urban populations between 20 and 64 y old. RESULTS: We found that, among the urban populations (20–64 y old) of 17 countries, 205,424 annual premature deaths could be prevented if high bike-use scenarios are achieved by 2050 (assuming that 100% of bike trips replace car trips). If only 8% of bike trips replace car trips in a more conservative scenario, 18,589 annual premature deaths could be prevented by 2050 in the same population. In all the countries and scenarios, the mortality benefits related to bike use (rather than car use) outweighed the mortality risks. DISCUSSION: We found that global biking policies may provide important mortality benefits in 2050. Current and future bike- vs. car-trip policies should be considered key public health interventions for a healthy urban design. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9073 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Environmental Health Perspectives is the property of National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1289/EHP9073
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        Text: English
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        PageCount: 10
        StartPage: 127002-1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Air pollution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Particulate matter
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Automobiles
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Health impact assessment
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      – SubjectFull: Relative medical risk
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Traffic accidents
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Confidence intervals
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mortality
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Quantitative research
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      – SubjectFull: Physical activity
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      – SubjectFull: Bicycles
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      – SubjectFull: Descriptive statistics
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      – SubjectFull: Odds ratio
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    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries.
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              M: 12
              Text: Dec2021
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              Y: 2021
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