A new framework for prognosing forest resources under intensified disturbance impacts: Case of the Czech Republic.
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| Title: | A new framework for prognosing forest resources under intensified disturbance impacts: Case of the Czech Republic. |
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| Authors: | Hlásny, Tomáš1 (AUTHOR) hlasny@fld.czu.cz, Barka, Ivan2 (AUTHOR), Merganičová, Katarína1 (AUTHOR), Křístek, Štěpán3 (AUTHOR), Modlinger, Roman1 (AUTHOR), Turčáni, Marek1 (AUTHOR), Marušák, Róbert1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Forest Ecology & Management. Nov2022, Vol. 523, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Resource exploitation, *Forest reserves, *Forests & forestry, *Forest dynamics, Remote sensing, Death rate, Wooden beams |
| Geographic Terms: | Czech Republic, Europe |
| Abstract: | • The Czech Republic has become an epicentre of disturbance intensification in Europe. • A new framework for a country-wide prognosis of forest resources is presented. • Projecting recent disturbance intensity up to 2050 dramatically decreases growing stock. • The major disturbance wave was projected to last 16 years until resource depletion. • The prognosis suggests a need for major structural changes in the regional forestry sector. Forest management decisions increasingly rely on modelling tools, which help identify future risks, optimize management decisions, and provide a suite of indicators beyond timber production. Here we developed and tested a novel simulation and upscaling framework (SUF) and used it for prognosing forest resources of the Czech Republic (Central Europe), which is currently one of Europe's hotspots of disturbance intensification. The SUF is based on an empirical forest model that simulates the development of 8 240 forest stands representing forest conditions in 206 administrative districts of the Czech Republic. The effect of natural disturbances is considered via empirical species- and age-specific mortality probability (MP) functions parameterized based on the national forest damage reports and remote sensing data. An upscaling procedure was developed to obtain district- and country-wide estimates. We tested this framework for its ability to (i) reproduce the initial forest conditions from the year 2003, (ii) reproduce forest dynamics in 2003–2016 (i.e., before the recent disturbance wave), (iii) reproduce the recent mortality pulse in 2017–2020, and (iv) generate plausible and consistent outputs under several disturbance and management settings in 2003–2050. The SUF reliably reproduced forest dynamics in both testing periods. The country-wide growing stock (GS) simulated for 2004–2050 oscillated around the initial value of 661 mill. m3 if the reference MP and management were considered. Using the elevated MP (corresponding with the recent disturbance period) increased the mean annual mortality rate from 0.78 % to 1.19 % and caused GS to decrease by 21 % in 2050. The wave of elevated mortality lasted 16 years, ceasing in 2033 due to the depletion of vulnerable stands. Reducing the rotation length by 40 % increased the harvests temporarily and caused GS to decrease by 29 and 33 % in 2050 under reference and elevated MP, respectively. At the same time, mortality was reduced by up to 18 % due to the removal of potentially vulnerable stands. The presented SUF is able to accommodate diverse forestry data, reproduce real forest dynamics, and generate outputs that correspond with the national forestry statistics. Flexible adoption of different mortality and management regimes makes it a versatile tool for supporting management decisions and policies. The presented simulations highlighted the negative prospects of the regional forests and the need for a profound transformation of management practices and the regional forest-based sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Forest Ecology & Management is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
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| Header | DbId: 8gh DbLabel: GreenFILE An: 159233679 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: A new framework for prognosing forest resources under intensified disturbance impacts: Case of the Czech Republic. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hlásny%2C+Tomáš%22">Hlásny, Tomáš</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> hlasny@fld.czu.cz</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Barka%2C+Ivan%22">Barka, Ivan</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Merganičová%2C+Katarína%22">Merganičová, Katarína</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Křístek%2C+Štěpán%22">Křístek, Štěpán</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Modlinger%2C+Roman%22">Modlinger, Roman</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Turčáni%2C+Marek%22">Turčáni, Marek</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Marušák%2C+Róbert%22">Marušák, Róbert</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Forest+Ecology+%26+Management%22">Forest Ecology & Management</searchLink>. Nov2022, Vol. 523, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Resource+exploitation%22">Resource exploitation</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+reserves%22">Forest reserves</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forests+%26+forestry%22">Forests & forestry</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+dynamics%22">Forest dynamics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Remote+sensing%22">Remote sensing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Death+rate%22">Death rate</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wooden+beams%22">Wooden beams</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Czech+Republic%22">Czech Republic</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Europe%22">Europe</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: • The Czech Republic has become an epicentre of disturbance intensification in Europe. • A new framework for a country-wide prognosis of forest resources is presented. • Projecting recent disturbance intensity up to 2050 dramatically decreases growing stock. • The major disturbance wave was projected to last 16 years until resource depletion. • The prognosis suggests a need for major structural changes in the regional forestry sector. Forest management decisions increasingly rely on modelling tools, which help identify future risks, optimize management decisions, and provide a suite of indicators beyond timber production. Here we developed and tested a novel simulation and upscaling framework (SUF) and used it for prognosing forest resources of the Czech Republic (Central Europe), which is currently one of Europe's hotspots of disturbance intensification. The SUF is based on an empirical forest model that simulates the development of 8 240 forest stands representing forest conditions in 206 administrative districts of the Czech Republic. The effect of natural disturbances is considered via empirical species- and age-specific mortality probability (MP) functions parameterized based on the national forest damage reports and remote sensing data. An upscaling procedure was developed to obtain district- and country-wide estimates. We tested this framework for its ability to (i) reproduce the initial forest conditions from the year 2003, (ii) reproduce forest dynamics in 2003–2016 (i.e., before the recent disturbance wave), (iii) reproduce the recent mortality pulse in 2017–2020, and (iv) generate plausible and consistent outputs under several disturbance and management settings in 2003–2050. The SUF reliably reproduced forest dynamics in both testing periods. The country-wide growing stock (GS) simulated for 2004–2050 oscillated around the initial value of 661 mill. m3 if the reference MP and management were considered. Using the elevated MP (corresponding with the recent disturbance period) increased the mean annual mortality rate from 0.78 % to 1.19 % and caused GS to decrease by 21 % in 2050. The wave of elevated mortality lasted 16 years, ceasing in 2033 due to the depletion of vulnerable stands. Reducing the rotation length by 40 % increased the harvests temporarily and caused GS to decrease by 29 and 33 % in 2050 under reference and elevated MP, respectively. At the same time, mortality was reduced by up to 18 % due to the removal of potentially vulnerable stands. The presented SUF is able to accommodate diverse forestry data, reproduce real forest dynamics, and generate outputs that correspond with the national forestry statistics. Flexible adoption of different mortality and management regimes makes it a versatile tool for supporting management decisions and policies. The presented simulations highlighted the negative prospects of the regional forests and the need for a profound transformation of management practices and the regional forest-based sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Forest Ecology & Management is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120483 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 1 StartPage: N.PAG Subjects: – SubjectFull: Resource exploitation Type: general – SubjectFull: Forest reserves Type: general – SubjectFull: Forests & forestry Type: general – SubjectFull: Forest dynamics Type: general – SubjectFull: Remote sensing Type: general – SubjectFull: Death rate Type: general – SubjectFull: Wooden beams Type: general – SubjectFull: Czech Republic Type: general – SubjectFull: Europe Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: A new framework for prognosing forest resources under intensified disturbance impacts: Case of the Czech Republic. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Hlásny, Tomáš – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Barka, Ivan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Merganičová, Katarína – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Křístek, Štěpán – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Modlinger, Roman – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Turčáni, Marek – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Marušák, Róbert IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 11 Text: Nov2022 Type: published Y: 2022 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 03781127 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 523 Titles: – TitleFull: Forest Ecology & Management Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
