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RegionGrow3D: A Deterministic Analysis for Characterizing Discrete Three‐Dimensional Landslide Source Areas on a Regional Scale.

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Title: RegionGrow3D: A Deterministic Analysis for Characterizing Discrete Three‐Dimensional Landslide Source Areas on a Regional Scale.
Authors: Mathews, Nicolas W.1,2 (AUTHOR) nmathews@usgs.gov, Leshchinsky, Ben A.3 (AUTHOR), Mirus, Benjamin B.1 (AUTHOR), Olsen, Michael J.2 (AUTHOR), Booth, Adam M.4 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface. Sep2024, Vol. 129 Issue 9, p1-29. 29p.
Subject Terms: *Shear strength of soils, *Landslides, *Rainfall, *Soil moisture, Rainfall frequencies, Slope stability
Abstract: Regional‐scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics‐based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three‐dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad‐scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km2) using 3D, limit‐equilibrium (LE)‐based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back‐calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE‐based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA. Plain Language Summary: Landslides are potentially destructive natural hazards that may impact topography, ecology, and important infrastructure. Often, previously triggered landslides are used to better understand where landslides may occur in the future, but in some regions, previous landslides may be poorly documented or characterized. In lieu of these data, models capturing the physics tied to landsliding may be paired with digital topography to predict landslide potential across landscapes. However, existing models are limited in their ability to efficiently capture the realistic geometry of three‐dimensional (3D) landslides across large landscapes. This study presents RegionGrow3D, a new model that identifies slope instabilities throughout large regions, and then grows those instabilities into landslides of previously unknown geometry by balancing forces within the underlying soil. The model is applied to a region in the Oregon Coast Range, USA to develop empirical relationships between landslide area, volume, and frequency for a range of rainfall scenarios and to determine the amount of rainfall required to trigger landslides on specific terrain features. Furthermore, because soil parameters are highly uncertain at this spatial scale (≥1,000 km2), a 3D landslide model is used to forensically assess soil strength from previously documented landslides in the area. Key Points: RegionGrow3D is a regional‐scale three‐dimensional slope stability model that grows discrete landslide volumes to achieve force equilibriumRegionGrow3D is parameterized using a range of input parameters to quantify the size, location, and likelihood of landslide initiationModeled landslides are used to quantify geomorphic scaling laws and rainfall thresholds that consider model input uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: RegionGrow3D: A Deterministic Analysis for Characterizing Discrete Three‐Dimensional Landslide Source Areas on a Regional Scale.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mathews%2C+Nicolas+W%2E%22">Mathews, Nicolas W.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> nmathews@usgs.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Leshchinsky%2C+Ben+A%2E%22">Leshchinsky, Ben A.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mirus%2C+Benjamin+B%2E%22">Mirus, Benjamin B.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Olsen%2C+Michael+J%2E%22">Olsen, Michael J.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Booth%2C+Adam+M%2E%22">Booth, Adam M.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Geophysical+Research%2E+Earth+Surface%22">Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface</searchLink>. Sep2024, Vol. 129 Issue 9, p1-29. 29p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Shear+strength+of+soils%22">Shear strength of soils</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Landslides%22">Landslides</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall%22">Rainfall</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Soil+moisture%22">Soil moisture</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall+frequencies%22">Rainfall frequencies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Slope+stability%22">Slope stability</searchLink>
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  Data: Regional‐scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics‐based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three‐dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad‐scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km2) using 3D, limit‐equilibrium (LE)‐based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back‐calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE‐based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA. Plain Language Summary: Landslides are potentially destructive natural hazards that may impact topography, ecology, and important infrastructure. Often, previously triggered landslides are used to better understand where landslides may occur in the future, but in some regions, previous landslides may be poorly documented or characterized. In lieu of these data, models capturing the physics tied to landsliding may be paired with digital topography to predict landslide potential across landscapes. However, existing models are limited in their ability to efficiently capture the realistic geometry of three‐dimensional (3D) landslides across large landscapes. This study presents RegionGrow3D, a new model that identifies slope instabilities throughout large regions, and then grows those instabilities into landslides of previously unknown geometry by balancing forces within the underlying soil. The model is applied to a region in the Oregon Coast Range, USA to develop empirical relationships between landslide area, volume, and frequency for a range of rainfall scenarios and to determine the amount of rainfall required to trigger landslides on specific terrain features. Furthermore, because soil parameters are highly uncertain at this spatial scale (≥1,000 km2), a 3D landslide model is used to forensically assess soil strength from previously documented landslides in the area. Key Points: RegionGrow3D is a regional‐scale three‐dimensional slope stability model that grows discrete landslide volumes to achieve force equilibriumRegionGrow3D is parameterized using a range of input parameters to quantify the size, location, and likelihood of landslide initiationModeled landslides are used to quantify geomorphic scaling laws and rainfall thresholds that consider model input uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1029/2024JF007815
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 29
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Shear strength of soils
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Landslides
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Rainfall
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Soil moisture
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Rainfall frequencies
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Slope stability
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: RegionGrow3D: A Deterministic Analysis for Characterizing Discrete Three‐Dimensional Landslide Source Areas on a Regional Scale.
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            NameFull: Mirus, Benjamin B.
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              M: 09
              Text: Sep2024
              Type: published
              Y: 2024
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