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Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex.

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Title: Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex.
Authors: McLean, Peter1 (AUTHOR) peter.mclean@metoffice.gov.uk, Bulmer, Chris1 (AUTHOR), Davies, Paul1 (AUTHOR), Dunstone, Nick1 (AUTHOR), Gordon, Margaret1 (AUTHOR), Ineson, Sarah1 (AUTHOR), Kelly, Jason1 (AUTHOR), Kettleborough, Jamie1 (AUTHOR), Knight, Jeff1 (AUTHOR), Lockwood, Julia Florence1 (AUTHOR), Scaife, Adam A.1 (AUTHOR), Smith, Doug1 (AUTHOR), Stringer, Nicky1 (AUTHOR), Walker, Brent1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ). Sep2024, Vol. 25 Issue 9, p1-10. 10p.
Subject Terms: *Wind power industry, *Storm damage, *Energy industries, North Atlantic oscillation, La Niña, Polar vortex
Abstract: The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observed anomalies over the winter. Winter 2021/2022 was well predicted in general by seasonal forecast systems. The ensemble mean indicated a positive winter NAO and the forecast spread of forecasts from the Met Office GloSea6 seasonal prediction system spanned the observed mean sea level pressure anomaly for the whole winter and the individual months. However, December showed the largest departure from the mean of the forecast which is consistent with evidence from previous work that early winter ENSO teleconnections are too weak in model predictions. Nevertheless, around one in four members captured the negative NAO pattern in December. The strong pressure gradient and positive NAO predicted for the latter part of the winter allowed successful warning of the possibility of above average storminess and strong winds which occurred in February 2022. This is potentially useful information for the energy sector who increasingly rely on wind power and the insurance industry for warning of storm damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McLean%2C+Peter%22">McLean, Peter</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> peter.mclean@metoffice.gov.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bulmer%2C+Chris%22">Bulmer, Chris</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Davies%2C+Paul%22">Davies, Paul</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dunstone%2C+Nick%22">Dunstone, Nick</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gordon%2C+Margaret%22">Gordon, Margaret</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ineson%2C+Sarah%22">Ineson, Sarah</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kelly%2C+Jason%22">Kelly, Jason</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kettleborough%2C+Jamie%22">Kettleborough, Jamie</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Knight%2C+Jeff%22">Knight, Jeff</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lockwood%2C+Julia+Florence%22">Lockwood, Julia Florence</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Scaife%2C+Adam+A%2E%22">Scaife, Adam A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Smith%2C+Doug%22">Smith, Doug</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stringer%2C+Nicky%22">Stringer, Nicky</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Walker%2C+Brent%22">Walker, Brent</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Atmospheric+Science+Letters+%28John+Wiley+%26+Sons%2C+Inc%2E+%29%22">Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. )</searchLink>. Sep2024, Vol. 25 Issue 9, p1-10. 10p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wind+power+industry%22">Wind power industry</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Storm+damage%22">Storm damage</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+industries%22">Energy industries</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Atlantic+oscillation%22">North Atlantic oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22La+Niña%22">La Niña</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Polar+vortex%22">Polar vortex</searchLink>
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  Data: The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observed anomalies over the winter. Winter 2021/2022 was well predicted in general by seasonal forecast systems. The ensemble mean indicated a positive winter NAO and the forecast spread of forecasts from the Met Office GloSea6 seasonal prediction system spanned the observed mean sea level pressure anomaly for the whole winter and the individual months. However, December showed the largest departure from the mean of the forecast which is consistent with evidence from previous work that early winter ENSO teleconnections are too weak in model predictions. Nevertheless, around one in four members captured the negative NAO pattern in December. The strong pressure gradient and positive NAO predicted for the latter part of the winter allowed successful warning of the possibility of above average storminess and strong winds which occurred in February 2022. This is potentially useful information for the energy sector who increasingly rely on wind power and the insurance industry for warning of storm damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1002/asl.1255
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 10
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    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Wind power industry
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Storm damage
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy industries
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: North Atlantic oscillation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: La Niña
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      – SubjectFull: Polar vortex
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              Text: Sep2024
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