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PDO Dynamics Shape the Fire Regime of Boreal Subarctic Landscapes in the Northwest Territories, Canada.

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Title: PDO Dynamics Shape the Fire Regime of Boreal Subarctic Landscapes in the Northwest Territories, Canada.
Authors: Ryzhkova, Nina1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Asselin, Hugo4,5 (AUTHOR), Ali, Adam A.6 (AUTHOR), Kryshen, Alexander7 (AUTHOR), Bergeron, Yves2,5 (AUTHOR), Robles, Daniela2,8 (AUTHOR), Pineda‐Zapata, Sara1 (AUTHOR), Drobyshev, Igor2,3 (AUTHOR) igor.drobyshev@slu.se
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences. Feb2025, Vol. 130 Issue 2, p1-18. 18p.
Subject Terms: *Forest dynamics, *Forest fires, *Fire management, Canadian history, Jack pine, Exercise physiology
Abstract: Spatially explicit reconstructions of fire activity in northwestern boreal Canada are rare, despite their importance for modeling current and future disturbance regimes and forest dynamics. We provide a dendrochronological reconstruction of historical fire activity along Highway 3 in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, within the boreal subarctic zone. We dated 129 fires that occurred between 1202 and 2015 CE, using samples from 479 fire‐scarred living and dead jack pine trees (Pinus banksiana Lamb.). Three distinct periods can be distinguished in terms of historical fire cycle (FC) and fire occurrence. Initially (1340–1440 CE), fire activity was low (FC = 572 years; 1 fire/decade), before increasing notably between 1460 and 1840 (FC = 171 years; 4.45 fires/decade), and even more in recent times (1860–2015 CE; FC = 95 years; 7.63 fires/decade). Climate has been an important factor controlling changes in fire frequency and FC in the NWT since the 1300s. The 1440s and 1850s correspond with periods of increased fire activity synchronized with shifts from negative to positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases. Since the mid‐1800s, human activities may have contributed to the increase in fire activity, but climate remained the leading factor. During the 20th century, years with increased area burned corresponded to periods with drier‐than‐average conditions associated with positive PDO, suggesting fire activity in the study region is still influenced by climate. Spatial teleconnection patterns among PDO, drought, and large fire years (LFYs) in the NWT reveal persistent relationships between ocean‐atmosphere circulation patterns and fire activity. PDO dynamics hold strong potential for predicting regional fire hazards across northwestern North America. Plain Language Summary: We studied the history of forest fires along Highway 3 in the Northwest Territories, Canada, using growth rings from jack pine trees. We examined age structure and dated fire scars using a data set of 479 jack pine trees. We identified 129 fires that occurred between the years 1202 and 2015. Our findings show three main periods of fire activity. From 1340 to 1440, fires were rare, happening about once per decade. Between 1460 and 1840, fires became more frequent, with about 4.45 fires each decade. Since 1860, fires have occurred even more often, that is, 7.63 times per decade. We discovered that climate, especially changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), played a significant role in increasing fire frequency over the years. In recent centuries, human activities may also have contributed to more frequent fires. During the 20th century, dry conditions linked to the PDO led to more fires. Our study suggests that the PDO and other climate factors continue to influence wildfire activity, making it possible to predict future fire risk in northwestern North America. Key Points: We developed the longest annual reconstruction of forest fire activity in the boreal subarctic of North AmericaThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) exercised a major effect upon fire activity in the Northwest Territories (Canada) since the 1300sA trend toward a more positive PDO suggests a future increase in fire activity in the Northwest Territories [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: PDO Dynamics Shape the Fire Regime of Boreal Subarctic Landscapes in the Northwest Territories, Canada.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ryzhkova%2C+Nina%22">Ryzhkova, Nina</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Asselin%2C+Hugo%22">Asselin, Hugo</searchLink><relatesTo>4,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ali%2C+Adam+A%2E%22">Ali, Adam A.</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kryshen%2C+Alexander%22">Kryshen, Alexander</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bergeron%2C+Yves%22">Bergeron, Yves</searchLink><relatesTo>2,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Robles%2C+Daniela%22">Robles, Daniela</searchLink><relatesTo>2,8</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pineda‐Zapata%2C+Sara%22">Pineda‐Zapata, Sara</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Drobyshev%2C+Igor%22">Drobyshev, Igor</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> igor.drobyshev@slu.se</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Geophysical+Research%2E+Biogeosciences%22">Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences</searchLink>. Feb2025, Vol. 130 Issue 2, p1-18. 18p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+dynamics%22">Forest dynamics</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+fires%22">Forest fires</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fire+management%22">Fire management</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Canadian+history%22">Canadian history</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Jack+pine%22">Jack pine</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Exercise+physiology%22">Exercise physiology</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Spatially explicit reconstructions of fire activity in northwestern boreal Canada are rare, despite their importance for modeling current and future disturbance regimes and forest dynamics. We provide a dendrochronological reconstruction of historical fire activity along Highway 3 in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, within the boreal subarctic zone. We dated 129 fires that occurred between 1202 and 2015 CE, using samples from 479 fire‐scarred living and dead jack pine trees (Pinus banksiana Lamb.). Three distinct periods can be distinguished in terms of historical fire cycle (FC) and fire occurrence. Initially (1340–1440 CE), fire activity was low (FC = 572 years; 1 fire/decade), before increasing notably between 1460 and 1840 (FC = 171 years; 4.45 fires/decade), and even more in recent times (1860–2015 CE; FC = 95 years; 7.63 fires/decade). Climate has been an important factor controlling changes in fire frequency and FC in the NWT since the 1300s. The 1440s and 1850s correspond with periods of increased fire activity synchronized with shifts from negative to positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases. Since the mid‐1800s, human activities may have contributed to the increase in fire activity, but climate remained the leading factor. During the 20th century, years with increased area burned corresponded to periods with drier‐than‐average conditions associated with positive PDO, suggesting fire activity in the study region is still influenced by climate. Spatial teleconnection patterns among PDO, drought, and large fire years (LFYs) in the NWT reveal persistent relationships between ocean‐atmosphere circulation patterns and fire activity. PDO dynamics hold strong potential for predicting regional fire hazards across northwestern North America. Plain Language Summary: We studied the history of forest fires along Highway 3 in the Northwest Territories, Canada, using growth rings from jack pine trees. We examined age structure and dated fire scars using a data set of 479 jack pine trees. We identified 129 fires that occurred between the years 1202 and 2015. Our findings show three main periods of fire activity. From 1340 to 1440, fires were rare, happening about once per decade. Between 1460 and 1840, fires became more frequent, with about 4.45 fires each decade. Since 1860, fires have occurred even more often, that is, 7.63 times per decade. We discovered that climate, especially changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), played a significant role in increasing fire frequency over the years. In recent centuries, human activities may also have contributed to more frequent fires. During the 20th century, dry conditions linked to the PDO led to more fires. Our study suggests that the PDO and other climate factors continue to influence wildfire activity, making it possible to predict future fire risk in northwestern North America. Key Points: We developed the longest annual reconstruction of forest fire activity in the boreal subarctic of North AmericaThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) exercised a major effect upon fire activity in the Northwest Territories (Canada) since the 1300sA trend toward a more positive PDO suggests a future increase in fire activity in the Northwest Territories [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1029/2024JG008178
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 18
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    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Forest dynamics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Forest fires
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fire management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Canadian history
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Jack pine
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      – SubjectFull: Exercise physiology
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      – TitleFull: PDO Dynamics Shape the Fire Regime of Boreal Subarctic Landscapes in the Northwest Territories, Canada.
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            NameFull: Ali, Adam A.
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              Text: Feb2025
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