Modeling Thermal and Biogeochemical Dynamics in Two Ponds Within Alaska's Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta: Impacts of Climatic Variability on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes.
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| Title: | Modeling Thermal and Biogeochemical Dynamics in Two Ponds Within Alaska's Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta: Impacts of Climatic Variability on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes. |
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| Authors: | Mullen, A. L.1 (AUTHOR), Jafarov, E. E.1 (AUTHOR) ejafarov@woodwellclimate.org, Hung, J. K. Y.1 (AUTHOR), Gurbanov, K.1 (AUTHOR), Stepanenko, V.2,3 (AUTHOR), Rogers, B. M.1 (AUTHOR), Watts, J. D.1 (AUTHOR), Natali, S. M.1 (AUTHOR), Poulin, B. A.4 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. Apr2025, Vol. 17 Issue 4, p1-22. 22p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Bodies of water, *Carbon emissions, *Carbon dioxide, *Atmospheric temperature, *Biogeochemical cycles, *Greenhouse gases, *Snow cover |
| Abstract: | Fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from open water bodies are critical components of carbon‐climate feedbacks in high latitudes. Processes governing the spatial and temporal variability of these aquatic greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes are still highly uncertain due to limited observational data sets and lack of modeling studies incorporating comprehensive thermal and biochemical processes. This research investigates how slight variations in climate propagate through the biogeochemical cycles of ponds and resulting impacts on GHG emissions. We examine the thermal and biogeochemical dynamics of two ponds in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, under varying climatic conditions to study the impacts on CO2, CH4, and oxygen (O2) concentrations and fluxes. We performed multiple numerical experiments, using the LAKE process‐based model and field measurements, to analyze how these ponds respond to variations in air temperature, shortwave radiation, and snow cover. Our study demonstrates that ice cover duration and water temperature are primary climatic drivers of GHG fluxes. Climate experiments led to reductions in ice cover duration and increased water temperatures, which subsequently enhanced CH4 and CO2 gas emissions from two study ponds. On average, cumulative CH4 and CO2 emissions were 5% and 10% higher, respectively, under increases in air temperature and shortwave radiation. Additionally, we uncovered a need to incorporate groundwater influxes of dissolved gases and nutrients in order to fully represent processes governing aquatic biochemical activity. Our work highlights the importance of understanding local‐scale processes in predicting future Arctic contributions to GHG emissions. Plain Language Summary: Quantifying the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from Arctic lakes is one of the major uncertainties in the carbon budget of the Arctic. However, it is challenging to quantify due to the limited data and lack of models that include detailed thermal and biochemical processes. We explored how climatic variables impact the way ponds produce and emit greenhouse gases (GHGs). We studied two ponds in Alaska's Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta using field data and a computer model to understand how changes in air temperature, sunlight, and snow cover influence CO2, CH4, and oxygen levels. We found that the duration of ice cover and water temperature are key climate factors influencing gas emissions. Warmer temperatures and increased sunlight reduce ice cover and heat up the water, resulting in higher emissions of CH4 and CO2 from the ponds. Under warmer conditions, cumulative emissions of methane and carbon dioxide increased by 5% and 10%, respectively, compared to baseline conditions. Future models need to include groundwater influxes of dissolved gases and nutrients for a complete understanding of these complex biochemical processes. Our study emphasizes the need to understand local processes to better predict the Arctic's future contribution to global GHG emissions. Key Points: LAKE model simulations indicate that snow cover, ice duration, and water temperatures play an important role in greenhouse gas dynamicsRemoval of snow cover slightly increased water body CH4 and CO2 fluxesA 2.7 C increase in air temperature led to a 5% increase water body CH4 emissions and 12% increase in water body CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
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| Header | DbId: 8gh DbLabel: GreenFILE An: 184801151 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Modeling Thermal and Biogeochemical Dynamics in Two Ponds Within Alaska's Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta: Impacts of Climatic Variability on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mullen%2C+A%2E+L%2E%22">Mullen, A. L.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jafarov%2C+E%2E+E%2E%22">Jafarov, E. E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> ejafarov@woodwellclimate.org</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hung%2C+J%2E+K%2E+Y%2E%22">Hung, J. K. Y.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gurbanov%2C+K%2E%22">Gurbanov, K.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stepanenko%2C+V%2E%22">Stepanenko, V.</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rogers%2C+B%2E+M%2E%22">Rogers, B. M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Watts%2C+J%2E+D%2E%22">Watts, J. D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Natali%2C+S%2E+M%2E%22">Natali, S. M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Poulin%2C+B%2E+A%2E%22">Poulin, B. A.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Advances+in+Modeling+Earth+Systems%22">Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</searchLink>. Apr2025, Vol. 17 Issue 4, p1-22. 22p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bodies+of+water%22">Bodies of water</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+emissions%22">Carbon emissions</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+dioxide%22">Carbon dioxide</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+temperature%22">Atmospheric temperature</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Biogeochemical+cycles%22">Biogeochemical cycles</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Greenhouse+gases%22">Greenhouse gases</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Snow+cover%22">Snow cover</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from open water bodies are critical components of carbon‐climate feedbacks in high latitudes. Processes governing the spatial and temporal variability of these aquatic greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes are still highly uncertain due to limited observational data sets and lack of modeling studies incorporating comprehensive thermal and biochemical processes. This research investigates how slight variations in climate propagate through the biogeochemical cycles of ponds and resulting impacts on GHG emissions. We examine the thermal and biogeochemical dynamics of two ponds in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, under varying climatic conditions to study the impacts on CO2, CH4, and oxygen (O2) concentrations and fluxes. We performed multiple numerical experiments, using the LAKE process‐based model and field measurements, to analyze how these ponds respond to variations in air temperature, shortwave radiation, and snow cover. Our study demonstrates that ice cover duration and water temperature are primary climatic drivers of GHG fluxes. Climate experiments led to reductions in ice cover duration and increased water temperatures, which subsequently enhanced CH4 and CO2 gas emissions from two study ponds. On average, cumulative CH4 and CO2 emissions were 5% and 10% higher, respectively, under increases in air temperature and shortwave radiation. Additionally, we uncovered a need to incorporate groundwater influxes of dissolved gases and nutrients in order to fully represent processes governing aquatic biochemical activity. Our work highlights the importance of understanding local‐scale processes in predicting future Arctic contributions to GHG emissions. Plain Language Summary: Quantifying the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from Arctic lakes is one of the major uncertainties in the carbon budget of the Arctic. However, it is challenging to quantify due to the limited data and lack of models that include detailed thermal and biochemical processes. We explored how climatic variables impact the way ponds produce and emit greenhouse gases (GHGs). We studied two ponds in Alaska's Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta using field data and a computer model to understand how changes in air temperature, sunlight, and snow cover influence CO2, CH4, and oxygen levels. We found that the duration of ice cover and water temperature are key climate factors influencing gas emissions. Warmer temperatures and increased sunlight reduce ice cover and heat up the water, resulting in higher emissions of CH4 and CO2 from the ponds. Under warmer conditions, cumulative emissions of methane and carbon dioxide increased by 5% and 10%, respectively, compared to baseline conditions. Future models need to include groundwater influxes of dissolved gases and nutrients for a complete understanding of these complex biochemical processes. Our study emphasizes the need to understand local processes to better predict the Arctic's future contribution to global GHG emissions. Key Points: LAKE model simulations indicate that snow cover, ice duration, and water temperatures play an important role in greenhouse gas dynamicsRemoval of snow cover slightly increased water body CH4 and CO2 fluxesA 2.7 C increase in air temperature led to a 5% increase water body CH4 emissions and 12% increase in water body CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1029/2024MS004441 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 22 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Bodies of water Type: general – SubjectFull: Carbon emissions Type: general – SubjectFull: Carbon dioxide Type: general – SubjectFull: Atmospheric temperature Type: general – SubjectFull: Biogeochemical cycles Type: general – SubjectFull: Greenhouse gases Type: general – SubjectFull: Snow cover Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Modeling Thermal and Biogeochemical Dynamics in Two Ponds Within Alaska's Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta: Impacts of Climatic Variability on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mullen, A. L. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jafarov, E. E. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Hung, J. K. Y. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Gurbanov, K. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Stepanenko, V. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Rogers, B. M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Watts, J. D. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Natali, S. M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Poulin, B. A. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 04 Text: Apr2025 Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 19422466 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 17 – Type: issue Value: 4 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Type: main |
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