Distribution and Habitat Modeling of Diploknema butyracea Under Past, Present, and Future Climatic Conditions.

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Title: Distribution and Habitat Modeling of Diploknema butyracea Under Past, Present, and Future Climatic Conditions.
Authors: Bhattarai, Shreehari1 (AUTHOR) sbhattarai@afu.edu.np, Kunwar, Ripu M.2 (AUTHOR), Shrestha, Arjun K.3 (AUTHOR), Bhatta, Balram1 (AUTHOR), Adhikari, Binaya4 (AUTHOR)
Source: Ecology & Evolution (20457758). Oct2025, Vol. 15 Issue 10, p1-10. 10p.
Subject Terms: *Species distribution, *Habitat selection, *Forest restoration, *Climate change, *Climate change detection, *Environmental management, Rainfall reliability
Geographic Terms: Nepal, Tarai (India & Nepal)
Abstract: Climate change has profoundly impacted global weather patterns, intensifying extreme events and shifting seasonal trends. Species distribution models (SDMs) are crucial for assessing ecological effects, particularly in forecasting climate‐induced shifts. This study examined the distribution of Diploknema butyracea by refining and spatially thinning occurrence data to a 1 km resolution, reducing an initial 413 records to 80 unique localities. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA dataset were analyzed, retaining only those with variance inflation factor (VIF) values below 10. Climatic conditions from past, present, and future scenarios were incorporated to assess habitat suitability over time. To ensure model reliability, block partitioning cross‐validation was applied, identifying the LQ model (Rm = 1.5) as the most effective. Key determinants of habitat suitability included bio08 (mean temperature of the wettest quarter), bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), bio07 (temperature annual range), bio12 (annual precipitation), and bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter). During the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago), suitable habitats were largely confined to the southern lowlands of Nepal. By the mid‐Holocene, rising temperatures and increased precipitation enabled expansion into mid‐hill regions. The present distribution shows high suitability across mid‐hills and lowlands, while future projections (SSP3‐7.0) indicate declining suitability in the lowland Terai due to increasing temperatures and precipitation, with a slight increase at higher elevations. These findings underscore the importance of climatic stability in shaping the distribution of D. butyracea and offer valuable insights for conservation planning and forest restoration in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Distribution and Habitat Modeling of Diploknema butyracea Under Past, Present, and Future Climatic Conditions.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bhattarai%2C+Shreehari%22">Bhattarai, Shreehari</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> sbhattarai@afu.edu.np</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kunwar%2C+Ripu+M%2E%22">Kunwar, Ripu M.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shrestha%2C+Arjun+K%2E%22">Shrestha, Arjun K.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bhatta%2C+Balram%22">Bhatta, Balram</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Adhikari%2C+Binaya%22">Adhikari, Binaya</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecology+%26+Evolution+%2820457758%29%22">Ecology & Evolution (20457758)</searchLink>. Oct2025, Vol. 15 Issue 10, p1-10. 10p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species+distribution%22">Species distribution</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Habitat+selection%22">Habitat selection</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+restoration%22">Forest restoration</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+detection%22">Climate change detection</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Environmental+management%22">Environmental management</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall+reliability%22">Rainfall reliability</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Nepal%22">Nepal</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tarai+%28India+%26+Nepal%29%22">Tarai (India & Nepal)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Climate change has profoundly impacted global weather patterns, intensifying extreme events and shifting seasonal trends. Species distribution models (SDMs) are crucial for assessing ecological effects, particularly in forecasting climate‐induced shifts. This study examined the distribution of Diploknema butyracea by refining and spatially thinning occurrence data to a 1 km resolution, reducing an initial 413 records to 80 unique localities. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA dataset were analyzed, retaining only those with variance inflation factor (VIF) values below 10. Climatic conditions from past, present, and future scenarios were incorporated to assess habitat suitability over time. To ensure model reliability, block partitioning cross‐validation was applied, identifying the LQ model (Rm = 1.5) as the most effective. Key determinants of habitat suitability included bio08 (mean temperature of the wettest quarter), bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), bio07 (temperature annual range), bio12 (annual precipitation), and bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter). During the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago), suitable habitats were largely confined to the southern lowlands of Nepal. By the mid‐Holocene, rising temperatures and increased precipitation enabled expansion into mid‐hill regions. The present distribution shows high suitability across mid‐hills and lowlands, while future projections (SSP3‐7.0) indicate declining suitability in the lowland Terai due to increasing temperatures and precipitation, with a slight increase at higher elevations. These findings underscore the importance of climatic stability in shaping the distribution of D. butyracea and offer valuable insights for conservation planning and forest restoration in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1002/ece3.72412
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 10
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Species distribution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Habitat selection
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Forest restoration
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change detection
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Environmental management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Rainfall reliability
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Nepal
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tarai (India & Nepal)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Distribution and Habitat Modeling of Diploknema butyracea Under Past, Present, and Future Climatic Conditions.
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            NameFull: Bhattarai, Shreehari
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            NameFull: Kunwar, Ripu M.
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            NameFull: Shrestha, Arjun K.
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            NameFull: Bhatta, Balram
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            NameFull: Adhikari, Binaya
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            – D: 01
              M: 10
              Text: Oct2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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              Value: 15
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              Value: 10
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