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Divergent Shifts in the Climatic Controls of Phenology Across Great Plains Grasslands.

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Title: Divergent Shifts in the Climatic Controls of Phenology Across Great Plains Grasslands.
Authors: Meng, Fandong1 (AUTHOR), Hedberg, Sydney L.2 (AUTHOR), Cong, Nan3 (AUTHOR), Post, Alison K.4 (AUTHOR), Wilcox, Kevin5 (AUTHOR), Mao, Wei6 (AUTHOR), Knapp, Alan K.2 (AUTHOR), Smith, Melinda D.2 (AUTHOR), Dorji, Tsechoe1 (AUTHOR), Chen, Anping2 (AUTHOR) anping.chen@colostate.edu
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences. Oct2025, Vol. 130 Issue 10, p1-13. 13p.
Subject Terms: *Climate change, *Precipitation variability, *Temperature effect, *Plant phenology, *Plains, *Grasslands, *Growing season, Spatiotemporal processes
Geographic Terms: Great Plains
Company/Entity: Earth Observing System (Program)
Abstract: Vegetation phenology serves as a highly sensitive indicator of climate change with the effects of warming on vegetation phenological dynamics extensively documented. However, the role of precipitation variability in shaping vegetation phenology remains relatively under‐explored, particularly in grassland ecosystems where precipitation is often a critical driver of seasonal vegetation dynamics. The Great Plains (GP), one of the largest grassland‐dominated regions globally, provides an ideal setting to investigate the climatic determinants of spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenophases and their potential changes. Here, we used contiguous solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence data sets to derive the timing of three key phenophases—the start of the growing season (SOS), the peak of the growing season (POS), and the end of the growing season (EOS)—across GP grasslands from 2000 to 2021. Our findings indicate that temperature predominantly determined SOS and POS in the northern and central GP, whereas precipitation played a more dominant role in EOS. Notably, from 2000–2010 to 2011–2021, the influence of precipitation on all three phenological events increased while the influence of temperature decreased. These results were further corroborated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index time series. Furthermore, projections suggest that temperature limitation on vegetation phenology will be alleviated with warming, while water limitation will intensify in the southern GP, potentially constraining warming‐induced advance of spring phenology. Plain Language Summary: Vegetation phenology, the timing of plant life cycle events at the landscape scale, is a crucial indicator of the impacts of climate change. Although the effects of temperature on phenology are well‐documented, the role of precipitation variability, especially in grassland ecosystems, remains relatively understudied. The Great Plains (GP), one of the world's largest grassland regions, offers an ideal environment to study these influences. Using satellite data, we examined three key phenophases—the start, peak, and end of the growing season—across GP grasslands from 2000 to 2021. We found that temperature primarily affects the start and peak of the growing season, whereas precipitation has a stronger influence on the end of the growing season. Notably, the influence of precipitation has increased over time, while temperature has diminished. This temporal shift in dominant climatic drivers has potential implications for ecosystem carbon dynamics, as drought stress is projected to increase in the southern GP. Key Points: Phenological sequences of grassland had divergent responses to climate changeTemperature effect on phenology declined but precipitation effect increased over timeFuture climate change will alleviate temperature limitations but intensify water limitations particularly in the southern Great Plains [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Divergent Shifts in the Climatic Controls of Phenology Across Great Plains Grasslands.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Meng%2C+Fandong%22">Meng, Fandong</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hedberg%2C+Sydney+L%2E%22">Hedberg, Sydney L.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cong%2C+Nan%22">Cong, Nan</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Post%2C+Alison+K%2E%22">Post, Alison K.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wilcox%2C+Kevin%22">Wilcox, Kevin</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mao%2C+Wei%22">Mao, Wei</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Knapp%2C+Alan+K%2E%22">Knapp, Alan K.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Smith%2C+Melinda+D%2E%22">Smith, Melinda D.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dorji%2C+Tsechoe%22">Dorji, Tsechoe</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chen%2C+Anping%22">Chen, Anping</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> anping.chen@colostate.edu</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Geophysical+Research%2E+Biogeosciences%22">Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences</searchLink>. Oct2025, Vol. 130 Issue 10, p1-13. 13p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Precipitation+variability%22">Precipitation variability</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Temperature+effect%22">Temperature effect</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Plant+phenology%22">Plant phenology</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Plains%22">Plains</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grasslands%22">Grasslands</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Growing+season%22">Growing season</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Spatiotemporal+processes%22">Spatiotemporal processes</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Great+Plains%22">Great Plains</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Earth+Observing+System+%28Program%29%22">Earth Observing System (Program)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Vegetation phenology serves as a highly sensitive indicator of climate change with the effects of warming on vegetation phenological dynamics extensively documented. However, the role of precipitation variability in shaping vegetation phenology remains relatively under‐explored, particularly in grassland ecosystems where precipitation is often a critical driver of seasonal vegetation dynamics. The Great Plains (GP), one of the largest grassland‐dominated regions globally, provides an ideal setting to investigate the climatic determinants of spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenophases and their potential changes. Here, we used contiguous solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence data sets to derive the timing of three key phenophases—the start of the growing season (SOS), the peak of the growing season (POS), and the end of the growing season (EOS)—across GP grasslands from 2000 to 2021. Our findings indicate that temperature predominantly determined SOS and POS in the northern and central GP, whereas precipitation played a more dominant role in EOS. Notably, from 2000–2010 to 2011–2021, the influence of precipitation on all three phenological events increased while the influence of temperature decreased. These results were further corroborated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index time series. Furthermore, projections suggest that temperature limitation on vegetation phenology will be alleviated with warming, while water limitation will intensify in the southern GP, potentially constraining warming‐induced advance of spring phenology. Plain Language Summary: Vegetation phenology, the timing of plant life cycle events at the landscape scale, is a crucial indicator of the impacts of climate change. Although the effects of temperature on phenology are well‐documented, the role of precipitation variability, especially in grassland ecosystems, remains relatively understudied. The Great Plains (GP), one of the world's largest grassland regions, offers an ideal environment to study these influences. Using satellite data, we examined three key phenophases—the start, peak, and end of the growing season—across GP grasslands from 2000 to 2021. We found that temperature primarily affects the start and peak of the growing season, whereas precipitation has a stronger influence on the end of the growing season. Notably, the influence of precipitation has increased over time, while temperature has diminished. This temporal shift in dominant climatic drivers has potential implications for ecosystem carbon dynamics, as drought stress is projected to increase in the southern GP. Key Points: Phenological sequences of grassland had divergent responses to climate changeTemperature effect on phenology declined but precipitation effect increased over timeFuture climate change will alleviate temperature limitations but intensify water limitations particularly in the southern Great Plains [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=8gh&AN=188962337
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1029/2024JG008267
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 13
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Precipitation variability
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Temperature effect
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Plant phenology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Plains
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grasslands
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Growing season
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Spatiotemporal processes
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Great Plains
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Earth Observing System (Program)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Divergent Shifts in the Climatic Controls of Phenology Across Great Plains Grasslands.
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              M: 10
              Text: Oct2025
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