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Probabilistic approaches for risk assessment and regulatory criteria development: current applications, gaps, and opportunities.

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Title: Probabilistic approaches for risk assessment and regulatory criteria development: current applications, gaps, and opportunities.
Authors: Flinders, Camille1 (AUTHOR) cflinders@ncasi.org, Barnhart, Brad2 (AUTHOR), Morrison, Emily B3 (AUTHOR), Anderson, Paul D4 (AUTHOR), Landis, Wayne G5 (AUTHOR)
Source: Integrated Environmental Assessment & Management. Nov2025, Vol. 21 Issue 6, p1281-1292. 12p.
Subject Terms: *Environmental health, Monte Carlo method, Uncertainty (Information theory), Risk management in business, Regulatory compliance, Bayesian analysis, Heterogeneity
Abstract: Traditional ecological and human health risk assessment often relies on deterministic frameworks that preclude the presence of variability or uncertainty among input parameters characterizing exposure, effects, and risk. To promote increased realism and generate more robust risk management decisions, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been introduced as a foundational grouping of techniques that seeks to broadly characterize variability among its components. Although multiple methods exist (e.g., Monte Carlo simulations, Bayesian networks), along with some federal and state regulatory guidance, gaps remain in prescriptive regulatory recommendations for the implementation of PRA methods. This article describes specific probabilistic approaches for risk characterization and assessment, regulatory support of PRA, challenges that may limit more widespread use, and opportunities for its expanded use in regulatory areas where it is not currently applied. Taken together, we hope to advance the understanding of probabilistic methodologies and their versatility for robust, transparent, data-based environmental risk assessment and standards derivation across a range of media that align with regulatory objectives to protect aquatic and terrestrial biota, human health, and vulnerable populations. Key points   Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a collection of risk assessment methods that incorporates uncertainty and variability to estimate the likelihood of exposure, risk, or hazard to different segments of an exposed assemblage or population. Although more robust and offering greater transparency than risk estimates based on conservative point estimates, PRA remains underutilized in ecological and human health risk assessment and associated regulatory frameworks. This article, and those in this special series, describe the value and applicability, current barriers and opportunities, and developments necessary to expand the use of PRA in environmental regulation across media and aspects of environmental and human health risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Abstract:Traditional ecological and human health risk assessment often relies on deterministic frameworks that preclude the presence of variability or uncertainty among input parameters characterizing exposure, effects, and risk. To promote increased realism and generate more robust risk management decisions, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been introduced as a foundational grouping of techniques that seeks to broadly characterize variability among its components. Although multiple methods exist (e.g., Monte Carlo simulations, Bayesian networks), along with some federal and state regulatory guidance, gaps remain in prescriptive regulatory recommendations for the implementation of PRA methods. This article describes specific probabilistic approaches for risk characterization and assessment, regulatory support of PRA, challenges that may limit more widespread use, and opportunities for its expanded use in regulatory areas where it is not currently applied. Taken together, we hope to advance the understanding of probabilistic methodologies and their versatility for robust, transparent, data-based environmental risk assessment and standards derivation across a range of media that align with regulatory objectives to protect aquatic and terrestrial biota, human health, and vulnerable populations. Key points   Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a collection of risk assessment methods that incorporates uncertainty and variability to estimate the likelihood of exposure, risk, or hazard to different segments of an exposed assemblage or population. Although more robust and offering greater transparency than risk estimates based on conservative point estimates, PRA remains underutilized in ecological and human health risk assessment and associated regulatory frameworks. This article, and those in this special series, describe the value and applicability, current barriers and opportunities, and developments necessary to expand the use of PRA in environmental regulation across media and aspects of environmental and human health risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:15513777
DOI:10.1093/inteam/vjaf016