Species distribution modelling to identify and validate areas of occupancy for the magnificent broodfrog (Pseudophryne covacevichae).

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Title: Species distribution modelling to identify and validate areas of occupancy for the magnificent broodfrog (Pseudophryne covacevichae).
Authors: Rush, Emily R.1 (AUTHOR) emily.rush1@my.jcu.edu.au, Edwards, Will1 (AUTHOR), Hoskin, Conrad J.2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Wildlife Research. 2025, Vol. 52 Issue 12, p1-15. 15p.
Subject Terms: *Species distribution, *Nature conservation, *Climate change, *Species, *Ecological mapping, Tropical forests, Field research, Frogs, Wet Tropics of Queensland World Heritage Area (Qld.)
Abstract: Context: The wet sclerophyll forests of the Australian Wet Tropics face increasing pressure from emerging threats like climate change and industrial development for wind farms. The magnificent broodfrog (Pseudophryne covacevichae) is a threatened species of the wet sclerophyll forest. A limitation for conservation is poor knowledge of its ecology and distribution. Aims: We aimed to better estimate the distribution of P. covacevichae using species distribution modelling (SDM) and evaluate model performance through targeted field surveys. Methods: We developed an initial MaxEnt model to guide field surveys and locate new populations. These new records were then incorporated to produce an updated model. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve and true skill statistic (TSS). Key results: The SDM identified previously unrecognised areas of potential habitat beyond the species' currently known distribution and identified many high-probability areas without records within the currently known distribution. The model resulted in the discovery of 12 new populations (all within the currently recognised distribution). Including the new records in the updated model led to improved model performance (TSS) and increased predicted probabilities in marginal or under-sampled areas. Modelling suggests that the patchy distribution of P. covacevichae is due to natural isolation between areas of suitable habitat, with suitability driven primarily by dry season precipitation and elevation. The findings highlight priority areas for future surveys, particularly in the wet sclerophyll forest on the Windsor Tableland. Further, increased sampling effort at elevations of 650–800 m may refine the species' lower elevational limits. Conclusion: This research provides insight into the potential distribution of P. covacevichae , identifies key areas that require surveys, and underscores the importance of field validation in SDM studies. Accurate distribution data are essential for conservation planning, particularly in mitigating threats from potential habitat loss due to climate change and wind farms. Implications: Substantial areas of the species' distribution occur on unprotected land and the SDM identifies key habitat that could be prioritised for future protection, particularly in the Atherton Tablelands region. The predictions also provide a foundation for genetic studies to assess population structure and gene flow among these isolated populations, which can aid in identifing vulnerable populations and inform conservation strategies to reduce extinction risk. Effective management of threatened species relies on knowing where they occur and why. This study combined distribution modelling and field surveys to improve knowledge of the distribution of Pseudophryne covacevichae , locate new populations, and identify areas for future surveys. The findings underscore the value of model validation and reveal key habitat drivers in a less studied ecosystem of the Australian Wet Tropics. Photograph by E. Rush. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Wildlife Research is the property of CSIRO Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Species distribution modelling to identify and validate areas of occupancy for the magnificent broodfrog (Pseudophryne covacevichae).
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rush%2C+Emily+R%2E%22">Rush, Emily R.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> emily.rush1@my.jcu.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Edwards%2C+Will%22">Edwards, Will</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hoskin%2C+Conrad+J%2E%22">Hoskin, Conrad J.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Wildlife+Research%22">Wildlife Research</searchLink>. 2025, Vol. 52 Issue 12, p1-15. 15p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species+distribution%22">Species distribution</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Nature+conservation%22">Nature conservation</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species%22">Species</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ecological+mapping%22">Ecological mapping</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+forests%22">Tropical forests</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Field+research%22">Field research</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Frogs%22">Frogs</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wet+Tropics+of+Queensland+World+Heritage+Area+%28Qld%2E%29%22">Wet Tropics of Queensland World Heritage Area (Qld.)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Context: The wet sclerophyll forests of the Australian Wet Tropics face increasing pressure from emerging threats like climate change and industrial development for wind farms. The magnificent broodfrog (Pseudophryne covacevichae) is a threatened species of the wet sclerophyll forest. A limitation for conservation is poor knowledge of its ecology and distribution. Aims: We aimed to better estimate the distribution of P. covacevichae using species distribution modelling (SDM) and evaluate model performance through targeted field surveys. Methods: We developed an initial MaxEnt model to guide field surveys and locate new populations. These new records were then incorporated to produce an updated model. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve and true skill statistic (TSS). Key results: The SDM identified previously unrecognised areas of potential habitat beyond the species' currently known distribution and identified many high-probability areas without records within the currently known distribution. The model resulted in the discovery of 12 new populations (all within the currently recognised distribution). Including the new records in the updated model led to improved model performance (TSS) and increased predicted probabilities in marginal or under-sampled areas. Modelling suggests that the patchy distribution of P. covacevichae is due to natural isolation between areas of suitable habitat, with suitability driven primarily by dry season precipitation and elevation. The findings highlight priority areas for future surveys, particularly in the wet sclerophyll forest on the Windsor Tableland. Further, increased sampling effort at elevations of 650–800 m may refine the species' lower elevational limits. Conclusion: This research provides insight into the potential distribution of P. covacevichae , identifies key areas that require surveys, and underscores the importance of field validation in SDM studies. Accurate distribution data are essential for conservation planning, particularly in mitigating threats from potential habitat loss due to climate change and wind farms. Implications: Substantial areas of the species' distribution occur on unprotected land and the SDM identifies key habitat that could be prioritised for future protection, particularly in the Atherton Tablelands region. The predictions also provide a foundation for genetic studies to assess population structure and gene flow among these isolated populations, which can aid in identifing vulnerable populations and inform conservation strategies to reduce extinction risk. Effective management of threatened species relies on knowing where they occur and why. This study combined distribution modelling and field surveys to improve knowledge of the distribution of Pseudophryne covacevichae , locate new populations, and identify areas for future surveys. The findings underscore the value of model validation and reveal key habitat drivers in a less studied ecosystem of the Australian Wet Tropics. Photograph by E. Rush. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Wildlife Research is the property of CSIRO Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1071/WR25108
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 15
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Species distribution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Nature conservation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Species
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ecological mapping
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tropical forests
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Field research
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Frogs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wet Tropics of Queensland World Heritage Area (Qld.)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Species distribution modelling to identify and validate areas of occupancy for the magnificent broodfrog (Pseudophryne covacevichae).
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            NameFull: Rush, Emily R.
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            NameFull: Edwards, Will
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            NameFull: Hoskin, Conrad J.
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            – D: 01
              M: 12
              Text: 2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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            – TitleFull: Wildlife Research
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