Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation.
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| Title: | Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation. |
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| Authors: | Sasaki, Clayton R. S.1 (AUTHOR), Rowe, Angela K.2 (AUTHOR) akrowe@wisc.edu, McMurdie, Lynn A.1 (AUTHOR), Varble, Adam C.3 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Zhixiao4 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres. 1/16/2026, Vol. 131 Issue 1, p1-19. 19p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Climate change, Mesoscale convective complexes, Vertical wind shear, Numerical weather forecasting, Atmospheric physics, Natural heat convection |
| Geographic Terms: | Argentina |
| Abstract: | This study uses a convection‐permitting model simulation to describe the environmental conditions under which convective upscale growth occurs in central Argentina, particularly examining environmental parameters when deep convection initially forms that could differentiate the rate of initial upscale growth. Simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are separated into slow and rapid growth by the rate of spatial growth from convection initiation until reaching the MCS scale. A low‐level jet (LLJ) is found more frequently near the deep convection that experiences rapid growth to an MCS, but its presence alone is not predictive of rapid growth. Using spatially‐averaged parameters, we find that rapid growth to MCSs also occurs in environments that are significantly more thermodynamically favorable with greater low‐level moisture and instability. Fewer significant differences are found in the kinematic environment with only the 0–2 km vertical wind shear magnitude being significantly larger for rapid growth MCSs compared to slow growth MCSs, potentially related to LLJs often peaking near this height. When focusing only on MCSs with the slowest and fastest growth rates, elevated‐layer shear is significantly smaller for very rapid growth MCSs, suggesting elevated‐layer shear may help discriminate between the upper and lower bounds of growth rate. Finally, when upscale growth occurs near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) with a LLJ present, rapid growth is also supported by favorable wind shear orientation. However, this does not hold for upscale growth occurring away from the SDC, highlighting the importance of interpreting shear direction relative to the orientation of features initiating deep convection. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the environments that support spatial growth of storms is crucial for predicting their impacts. This study uses a 6.5‐month‐long high‐resolution model simulation to examine the environments of simulated storm systems separated based on their rate of spatial growth. Results show that environments with a faster growth rate have greater moisture and instability. While vertical wind shear, defined as the change in wind speed and/or direction with height, is a well‐known factor in storm organization, its magnitude does not vary strongly with growth rate when shear is averaged over a large area, likely due to the large spread in values present. However, the direction of wind shear is likely an important factor in the rate of growth, and faster spatial growth is found for storms growing near the mountains when a favorable shear direction (parallel to the mountain range) is present. A low‐level jet, an area of stronger wind speeds elevated off of the surface, is found more frequently in environments with a faster growth rate and is likely an important mechanism that facilitates differences in thermodynamics and wind shear. Key Points: Using a seasonal convection‐permitting simulation, environments are compared for storms with slow and rapid spatial growth to mesoscale convective systems (MCS)Rapid growth is favored in environments with greater low‐level moisture and instability, likely related to the presence of a low‐level jet (LLJ)Favorable vertical wind shear orientation when a LLJ is present near the mountains likely also supports rapid MCS growth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sasaki%2C+Clayton+R%2E+S%2E%22">Sasaki, Clayton R. S.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rowe%2C+Angela+K%2E%22">Rowe, Angela K.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> akrowe@wisc.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McMurdie%2C+Lynn+A%2E%22">McMurdie, Lynn A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Varble%2C+Adam+C%2E%22">Varble, Adam C.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Zhixiao%22">Zhang, Zhixiao</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Geophysical+Research%2E+Atmospheres%22">Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres</searchLink>. 1/16/2026, Vol. 131 Issue 1, p1-19. 19p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mesoscale+convective+complexes%22">Mesoscale convective complexes</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Vertical+wind+shear%22">Vertical wind shear</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Numerical+weather+forecasting%22">Numerical weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+physics%22">Atmospheric physics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Natural+heat+convection%22">Natural heat convection</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Argentina%22">Argentina</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: This study uses a convection‐permitting model simulation to describe the environmental conditions under which convective upscale growth occurs in central Argentina, particularly examining environmental parameters when deep convection initially forms that could differentiate the rate of initial upscale growth. Simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are separated into slow and rapid growth by the rate of spatial growth from convection initiation until reaching the MCS scale. A low‐level jet (LLJ) is found more frequently near the deep convection that experiences rapid growth to an MCS, but its presence alone is not predictive of rapid growth. Using spatially‐averaged parameters, we find that rapid growth to MCSs also occurs in environments that are significantly more thermodynamically favorable with greater low‐level moisture and instability. Fewer significant differences are found in the kinematic environment with only the 0–2 km vertical wind shear magnitude being significantly larger for rapid growth MCSs compared to slow growth MCSs, potentially related to LLJs often peaking near this height. When focusing only on MCSs with the slowest and fastest growth rates, elevated‐layer shear is significantly smaller for very rapid growth MCSs, suggesting elevated‐layer shear may help discriminate between the upper and lower bounds of growth rate. Finally, when upscale growth occurs near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) with a LLJ present, rapid growth is also supported by favorable wind shear orientation. However, this does not hold for upscale growth occurring away from the SDC, highlighting the importance of interpreting shear direction relative to the orientation of features initiating deep convection. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the environments that support spatial growth of storms is crucial for predicting their impacts. This study uses a 6.5‐month‐long high‐resolution model simulation to examine the environments of simulated storm systems separated based on their rate of spatial growth. Results show that environments with a faster growth rate have greater moisture and instability. While vertical wind shear, defined as the change in wind speed and/or direction with height, is a well‐known factor in storm organization, its magnitude does not vary strongly with growth rate when shear is averaged over a large area, likely due to the large spread in values present. However, the direction of wind shear is likely an important factor in the rate of growth, and faster spatial growth is found for storms growing near the mountains when a favorable shear direction (parallel to the mountain range) is present. A low‐level jet, an area of stronger wind speeds elevated off of the surface, is found more frequently in environments with a faster growth rate and is likely an important mechanism that facilitates differences in thermodynamics and wind shear. Key Points: Using a seasonal convection‐permitting simulation, environments are compared for storms with slow and rapid spatial growth to mesoscale convective systems (MCS)Rapid growth is favored in environments with greater low‐level moisture and instability, likely related to the presence of a low‐level jet (LLJ)Favorable vertical wind shear orientation when a LLJ is present near the mountains likely also supports rapid MCS growth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1029/2025JD044251 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 19 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Mesoscale convective complexes Type: general – SubjectFull: Vertical wind shear Type: general – SubjectFull: Numerical weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Atmospheric physics Type: general – SubjectFull: Natural heat convection Type: general – SubjectFull: Argentina Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Sasaki, Clayton R. S. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Rowe, Angela K. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: McMurdie, Lynn A. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Varble, Adam C. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhang, Zhixiao IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 16 M: 01 Text: 1/16/2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 2169897X Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 131 – Type: issue Value: 1 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
