View in EDS

Impacts of climate change on electrical subsidies’ public policies: the case of Mexico.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Impacts of climate change on electrical subsidies’ public policies: the case of Mexico.
Authors: Muñoz Sánchez, Rodrigo1 (AUTHOR) rodrigo.munos@atmosfera.unam.mx, Velasco, Julián A.1 (AUTHOR), Estrada Porrúa, Francisco1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Calderón Bustamante, Oscar1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Mar2026, Vol. 31 Issue 3, p1-20. 20p.
Abstract: Several countries around the world subsidize electrical tariffs. Mexico’s residential tariff structure is among the most complex and subsidized, depending on blocks of consumption and local temperature. In 2016 the residential electricity subsidy was 100 billion Mexican Pesos. To understand the increases in residential electricity consumption at the municipal level in Mexico in a climate change context, we used a machine learning approach based on gradient boosted trees to test how electricity consumption is related to population, GDP, temperature, and precipitation, while controlling for month of the year and for the country’s different states. We evaluated the impact of consumption increases, coupled with the future behavior of the current tariff policy, on the future increase of the total subsidy in real terms. The subsidy would grow to 132.4 billion MXN in real terms by 2030, and 203.6 billion MXN in 2070 under a business as usual scenario; climate change makes the subsidy rise by 2.2% by 2030 and 5.3% by 2070. Projected increases in temperature should be incorporated explicitly in the planning of the National Electric System, as the subsidy would continue to grow in real terms. This situation is worsened by the current tariff structure based on the average temperature of the locality. A tariff change proposal is discussed; it maintains the current structure while ameliorating the distributional incidence, with a tariff increase of 18% for the lowest income decile and 80% for the highest income bracket, and reducing future subsidy increases under climate change by 50% by 2070. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: GreenFILE
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
Header DbId: 8gh
DbLabel: GreenFILE
An: 191757496
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Impacts of climate change on electrical subsidies’ public policies: the case of Mexico.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Muñoz+Sánchez%2C+Rodrigo%22">Muñoz Sánchez, Rodrigo</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> rodrigo.munos@atmosfera.unam.mx</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Velasco%2C+Julián+A%2E%22">Velasco, Julián A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Estrada+Porrúa%2C+Francisco%22">Estrada Porrúa, Francisco</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Calderón+Bustamante%2C+Oscar%22">Calderón Bustamante, Oscar</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Mitigation+%26+Adaptation+Strategies+for+Global+Change%22">Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 31 Issue 3, p1-20. 20p.
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Several countries around the world subsidize electrical tariffs. Mexico’s residential tariff structure is among the most complex and subsidized, depending on blocks of consumption and local temperature. In 2016 the residential electricity subsidy was 100 billion Mexican Pesos. To understand the increases in residential electricity consumption at the municipal level in Mexico in a climate change context, we used a machine learning approach based on gradient boosted trees to test how electricity consumption is related to population, GDP, temperature, and precipitation, while controlling for month of the year and for the country’s different states. We evaluated the impact of consumption increases, coupled with the future behavior of the current tariff policy, on the future increase of the total subsidy in real terms. The subsidy would grow to 132.4 billion MXN in real terms by 2030, and 203.6 billion MXN in 2070 under a business as usual scenario; climate change makes the subsidy rise by 2.2% by 2030 and 5.3% by 2070. Projected increases in temperature should be incorporated explicitly in the planning of the National Electric System, as the subsidy would continue to grow in real terms. This situation is worsened by the current tariff structure based on the average temperature of the locality. A tariff change proposal is discussed; it maintains the current structure while ameliorating the distributional incidence, with a tariff increase of 18% for the lowest income decile and 80% for the highest income bracket, and reducing future subsidy increases under climate change by 50% by 2070. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=8gh&AN=191757496
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s11027-025-10282-1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 20
        StartPage: 1
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Impacts of climate change on electrical subsidies’ public policies: the case of Mexico.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Muñoz Sánchez, Rodrigo
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Velasco, Julián A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Estrada Porrúa, Francisco
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Calderón Bustamante, Oscar
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 13812386
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 31
            – Type: issue
              Value: 3
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
              Type: main
ResultId 1