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Prediction of European Winter 2023/24: Influence of a Strong El Niño.

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Title: Prediction of European Winter 2023/24: Influence of a Strong El Niño.
Authors: Ineson, Sarah1 (AUTHOR) sarah.ineson@metoffice.gov.uk, Almond, Chris1 (AUTHOR), Davies, Paul1 (AUTHOR), Dunstone, Nick J.1 (AUTHOR), Folland, Chris K.1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Gordon, Margaret1 (AUTHOR), Hardiman, Steven C.1 (AUTHOR), Knight, Jeff R.1 (AUTHOR), McLean, Peter1 (AUTHOR), Nie, Yu4 (AUTHOR), Scaife, Adam A.1,5 (AUTHOR), Smith, Doug M.1 (AUTHOR), Stringer, Nicky1 (AUTHOR), Thornton, Hazel E.1 (AUTHOR), Walker, Brent1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ). Feb2026, Vol. 27 Issue 2, p1-10. 10p.
Subject Terms: *Long-range weather forecasting, *Weather, El Niño, North Atlantic oscillation, Winter, Stratospheric circulation
Geographic Terms: Europe, Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic Ocean, United Kingdom
Company/Entity: Great Britain. Meteorological Office
Abstract: UK winter 2023/24 had a particularly stormy start, similar to 2015/16, another strong El Niño winter. Successfully predicted by the Met Office seasonal forecast system, this increased early‐winter storminess was associated with lower‐than‐average surface pressure to the west of the UK. Although late winter during El Niño is often associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in 2023/24 the NAO was near‐neutral in observations and weakly positive in the ensemble mean forecast, the late‐winter Atlantic surface pressure pattern in the forecast resembling the response observed during the very strongest El Niño events. Both observations and the forecast showed relatively higher pressure west of the UK, but north‐west Europe and the southern North Atlantic were more cyclonic than forecast. The forecast ensemble mean stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) was relatively strong, and unusually, the mean of ensemble members which had a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) did not project strongly onto the negative NAO, analysis suggesting tropospheric teleconnections masked the usual SSW impact. Conversely, the observed SPV was weak; however, a mid‐January SSW had little surface impact. Overall, our analysis suggests that, despite some differences in late winter, El Niño was the principal driver of observed conditions in the North Atlantic‐European sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Prediction of European Winter 2023/24: Influence of a Strong El Niño.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ineson%2C+Sarah%22">Ineson, Sarah</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> sarah.ineson@metoffice.gov.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Almond%2C+Chris%22">Almond, Chris</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Davies%2C+Paul%22">Davies, Paul</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dunstone%2C+Nick+J%2E%22">Dunstone, Nick J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Folland%2C+Chris+K%2E%22">Folland, Chris K.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gordon%2C+Margaret%22">Gordon, Margaret</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hardiman%2C+Steven+C%2E%22">Hardiman, Steven C.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Knight%2C+Jeff+R%2E%22">Knight, Jeff R.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McLean%2C+Peter%22">McLean, Peter</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nie%2C+Yu%22">Nie, Yu</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Scaife%2C+Adam+A%2E%22">Scaife, Adam A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Smith%2C+Doug+M%2E%22">Smith, Doug M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stringer%2C+Nicky%22">Stringer, Nicky</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thornton%2C+Hazel+E%2E%22">Thornton, Hazel E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Walker%2C+Brent%22">Walker, Brent</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Europe%22">Europe</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atlantic+Ocean%22">Atlantic Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Atlantic+Ocean%22">North Atlantic Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+Kingdom%22">United Kingdom</searchLink>
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  Data: UK winter 2023/24 had a particularly stormy start, similar to 2015/16, another strong El Niño winter. Successfully predicted by the Met Office seasonal forecast system, this increased early‐winter storminess was associated with lower‐than‐average surface pressure to the west of the UK. Although late winter during El Niño is often associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in 2023/24 the NAO was near‐neutral in observations and weakly positive in the ensemble mean forecast, the late‐winter Atlantic surface pressure pattern in the forecast resembling the response observed during the very strongest El Niño events. Both observations and the forecast showed relatively higher pressure west of the UK, but north‐west Europe and the southern North Atlantic were more cyclonic than forecast. The forecast ensemble mean stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) was relatively strong, and unusually, the mean of ensemble members which had a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) did not project strongly onto the negative NAO, analysis suggesting tropospheric teleconnections masked the usual SSW impact. Conversely, the observed SPV was weak; however, a mid‐January SSW had little surface impact. Overall, our analysis suggests that, despite some differences in late winter, El Niño was the principal driver of observed conditions in the North Atlantic‐European sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1002/asl.70006
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Long-range weather forecasting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Weather
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: El Niño
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      – SubjectFull: North Atlantic oscillation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Winter
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      – SubjectFull: Stratospheric circulation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Europe
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atlantic Ocean
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: North Atlantic Ocean
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      – SubjectFull: United Kingdom
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      – SubjectFull: Great Britain. Meteorological Office
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      – TitleFull: Prediction of European Winter 2023/24: Influence of a Strong El Niño.
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              Text: Feb2026
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