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Climate Change Vulnerability and Conservation Priorities for Atlantic Forest Palms.

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Title: Climate Change Vulnerability and Conservation Priorities for Atlantic Forest Palms.
Authors: Angeli, Júlia1,2,3 (AUTHOR) juliaangeli34@gmail.com, Talora, Daniela Custódio1,3 (AUTHOR), Alves‐Ferreira, Gabriela1,3 (AUTHOR), Heming, Neander Marcel1,3 (AUTHOR), Cazetta, Eliana1,2,3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Ecology & Evolution (20457758). Apr2026, Vol. 16 Issue 4, p1-14. 14p.
Subject Terms: *Climate change, *Biodiversity, *Forests & forestry, *Ecological niche, *Species distribution, Palms, Corridors (Ecology), Environmental protection planning
Abstract: Climate change is expected to significantly impact biodiversity, causing shifts in palm species distribution. Understanding how climate change affects distribution patterns and identifying traits that influence species' responses may contribute to species conservation. Using ecological niche models and life‐history trait data for 59 palm species of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we investigated: (i) how future climate scenarios may affect species richness and climatically suitable areas for Atlantic Forest palms, identifying the most threatened species, and (ii) which traits are associated with gains or losses in the suitable area under climate change. In general, the Atlantic Forest is projected to maintain high levels of palm species richness, although substantial regional losses are expected, particularly along the northern coast and in central areas of the biome, which currently harbor areas of high species richness. Our projections indicate that over 64.4% of palm species will experience contractions in their climatically suitable areas across all future scenarios. Species with restricted distributions are particularly vulnerable, reinforcing the importance of baseline range size as a key determinant of climate change sensitivity. In contrast, life‐history traits were not significant predictors of changes in the area ratio across future scenarios. These findings identify priority regions and species for conservation planning and emphasize the need to protect climatically stable areas, enhance habitat connectivity, and implement restoration strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss in the Atlantic Forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Climate Change Vulnerability and Conservation Priorities for Atlantic Forest Palms.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Angeli%2C+Júlia%22">Angeli, Júlia</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> juliaangeli34@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Talora%2C+Daniela+Custódio%22">Talora, Daniela Custódio</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Alves‐Ferreira%2C+Gabriela%22">Alves‐Ferreira, Gabriela</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Heming%2C+Neander+Marcel%22">Heming, Neander Marcel</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cazetta%2C+Eliana%22">Cazetta, Eliana</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecology+%26+Evolution+%2820457758%29%22">Ecology & Evolution (20457758)</searchLink>. Apr2026, Vol. 16 Issue 4, p1-14. 14p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Biodiversity%22">Biodiversity</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forests+%26+forestry%22">Forests & forestry</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ecological+niche%22">Ecological niche</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species+distribution%22">Species distribution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Palms%22">Palms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Corridors+%28Ecology%29%22">Corridors (Ecology)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Environmental+protection+planning%22">Environmental protection planning</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Climate change is expected to significantly impact biodiversity, causing shifts in palm species distribution. Understanding how climate change affects distribution patterns and identifying traits that influence species' responses may contribute to species conservation. Using ecological niche models and life‐history trait data for 59 palm species of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we investigated: (i) how future climate scenarios may affect species richness and climatically suitable areas for Atlantic Forest palms, identifying the most threatened species, and (ii) which traits are associated with gains or losses in the suitable area under climate change. In general, the Atlantic Forest is projected to maintain high levels of palm species richness, although substantial regional losses are expected, particularly along the northern coast and in central areas of the biome, which currently harbor areas of high species richness. Our projections indicate that over 64.4% of palm species will experience contractions in their climatically suitable areas across all future scenarios. Species with restricted distributions are particularly vulnerable, reinforcing the importance of baseline range size as a key determinant of climate change sensitivity. In contrast, life‐history traits were not significant predictors of changes in the area ratio across future scenarios. These findings identify priority regions and species for conservation planning and emphasize the need to protect climatically stable areas, enhance habitat connectivity, and implement restoration strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss in the Atlantic Forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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        Value: 10.1002/ece3.73411
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 14
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Biodiversity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Forests & forestry
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ecological niche
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Species distribution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Palms
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Corridors (Ecology)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Environmental protection planning
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Climate Change Vulnerability and Conservation Priorities for Atlantic Forest Palms.
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            NameFull: Angeli, Júlia
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            NameFull: Talora, Daniela Custódio
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            NameFull: Alves‐Ferreira, Gabriela
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            NameFull: Heming, Neander Marcel
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              M: 04
              Text: Apr2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 16
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