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Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach.

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Title: Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach.
Authors: Ding, Junyan1 (AUTHOR) dingjunyan7@gmail.com, McDowell, Nate2,3 (AUTHOR), Conroy, Nathan4 (AUTHOR), Day, Donnie J.5 (AUTHOR), Fang, Yilin6 (AUTHOR), Kemner, Kenneth M.7 (AUTHOR), Kirwan, Matthew L.8 (AUTHOR), Kovach, Matthew5 (AUTHOR), Megonigal, Patrick9 (AUTHOR), Morris, Kendalynn A.10 (AUTHOR), O'Meara, Teri11 (AUTHOR), Pennington, Stephanie C.10 (AUTHOR), Peixoto, Roberta B.5 (AUTHOR), Thornton, Peter11 (AUTHOR), Weintraub, Michael N.5 (AUTHOR), Regier, Peter12 (AUTHOR), Sandoval, Leticia5 (AUTHOR), Machado‐Silva, Fausto5 (AUTHOR), Stearns, Alice9 (AUTHOR), Ward, Nicholas D.12 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences. Apr2026, Vol. 131 Issue 4, p1-15. 15p.
Subject Terms: *Tree mortality, *Coastal plants, *Salt marsh ecology, *Atmospheric carbon dioxide, *Biomass production
Geographic Terms: Chesapeake Bay (Md. & Va.), Lake Erie
Abstract: Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea‐level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh‐dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES‐Hydro, we conducted 30‐year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity‐ and submersion‐driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non‐water‐limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. Our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community‐level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests. Plain Language Summary: Coastal forests are under growing threat from rising sea levels, flooding, and saltwater intrusion, which can kill trees and transform forests into marshes. In this study, we used a computer model to simulate how two types of coastal forests—a broadleaf oak forest along Lake Erie and a pine forest along Chesapeake Bay—respond to warmer temperatures and higher atmospheric CO2 over a 30‐year period. We found that warmer temperatures made trees more vulnerable to dying by intensifying water stress, particularly in already flood‐ and salt‐stressed environments. Higher CO2 helped trees grow more leaves and fix more carbon, but did not protect them from dying. Importantly, what happened after trees died depended strongly on the type of forest: in the more open oak forest, marsh plants quickly colonized the gaps left by dead trees, maintaining overall ecosystem productivity. In the denser pine forest, marsh colonization was too slow to compensate for tree loss, leading to prolonged declines in productivity. These results highlight that the future of coastal forests depends not only on how individual trees respond to climate change but also on how the whole plant community reorganizes afterward. Key Points: In coastal forests, elevated temperature amplifies salinity‐ and submersion‐driven hydraulic stress, accelerating tree mortalityElevated CO2 enhances carbon uptake but does not reduce mortality arising from compound salinity and flooding stressOpen broadleaf canopies sustain productivity as marsh invades; dense conifer stands decline as marsh lags behind tree mortality [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: GreenFILE
Description
Abstract:Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea‐level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh‐dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES‐Hydro, we conducted 30‐year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity‐ and submersion‐driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non‐water‐limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. Our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community‐level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests. Plain Language Summary: Coastal forests are under growing threat from rising sea levels, flooding, and saltwater intrusion, which can kill trees and transform forests into marshes. In this study, we used a computer model to simulate how two types of coastal forests—a broadleaf oak forest along Lake Erie and a pine forest along Chesapeake Bay—respond to warmer temperatures and higher atmospheric CO2 over a 30‐year period. We found that warmer temperatures made trees more vulnerable to dying by intensifying water stress, particularly in already flood‐ and salt‐stressed environments. Higher CO2 helped trees grow more leaves and fix more carbon, but did not protect them from dying. Importantly, what happened after trees died depended strongly on the type of forest: in the more open oak forest, marsh plants quickly colonized the gaps left by dead trees, maintaining overall ecosystem productivity. In the denser pine forest, marsh colonization was too slow to compensate for tree loss, leading to prolonged declines in productivity. These results highlight that the future of coastal forests depends not only on how individual trees respond to climate change but also on how the whole plant community reorganizes afterward. Key Points: In coastal forests, elevated temperature amplifies salinity‐ and submersion‐driven hydraulic stress, accelerating tree mortalityElevated CO2 enhances carbon uptake but does not reduce mortality arising from compound salinity and flooding stressOpen broadleaf canopies sustain productivity as marsh invades; dense conifer stands decline as marsh lags behind tree mortality [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:21698953
DOI:10.1029/2025JG009305