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Understanding forest transitions and lock-ins in Latin American agro-forest frontiers: aligning theory to practice for accelerating restoration.

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Title: Understanding forest transitions and lock-ins in Latin American agro-forest frontiers: aligning theory to practice for accelerating restoration.
Authors: Lohbeck, Madelon1 (AUTHOR) madelon.lohbeck@wur.nl, Kuyper, Thomas W.2 (AUTHOR), Bongers, Frans1 (AUTHOR), Aguilar-Fernández, Rocío1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Balvanera, Patricia3 (AUTHOR), Behagel, Jelle4 (AUTHOR), Berget, Carolina1,3,5 (AUTHOR), Bianchi, Felix6 (AUTHOR), Cardoso, Irene Maria7 (AUTHOR), de Carvalho Gomes, Lucas8 (AUTHOR), Cruz-Morales, Juana9 (AUTHOR), Decuyper, Mathieu1 (AUTHOR), García Barrios, Luís10 (AUTHOR), García-Frapolli, Eduardo3 (AUTHOR), Gavito, Mayra E.3 (AUTHOR), Goris, Margriet5,11,12 (AUTHOR), Heinze, Alan1,13 (AUTHOR), Hernández Guzmán, Alejandra1 (AUTHOR), Martínez-Ramos, Miguel3 (AUTHOR), Meza Jiménez, Amayrani10 (AUTHOR)
Source: Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions. Jul2026, Vol. 98, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subject Terms: *Agroforestry, *Reforestation, *Forest dynamics, Government policy, Social movements, Institutional environment, Latin Americans
Geographic Terms: Mexico, Brazil
Abstract: [Display omitted] • Alignment of state policy and social movement is an overlooked driver of forest transitions. • Structural and economic lock-ins can hamper local forest transitions. • Sudden events that lead to rapid forest loss are not included in the FTT. • There is a need to align policy with local needs and restoration goals. The agro-forest frontier is the dynamic border between agricultural and forested lands. Drawing on results from an interdisciplinary research programme, we synthesise and compare social-ecological dynamics in three Latin American agro-forest frontiers: Marqués de Comillas and La Sepultura in Mexico, and Zona da Mata in Brazil. Each includes extensive livestock grazing, rain-fed agriculture, secondary vegetation, and state-protected areas. Forest transition theory (FTT) proposes that after settlement, forest cover decreases until a turning point (the forest transition) when forest cover may start to increase. We asked what drives forest cover change in each site and how well the FTT reflects empirical evidence. We quantified past forest dynamics, positioned the frontiers along the 'forest transition curve', qualitatively assessed their drivers of change, and evaluated the fit between theoretical models and empirical evidence. The frontiers represented different socio-ecological dynamics, resulting in contrasting forest cover trends that extend beyond patterns described by the FTT. The two Mexican frontiers appeared to be locked into pathways away from forest transitions; one driven by state-led conservation, and characterised by low-productive agriculture and forest degradation; the other driven by globalisation and neoliberal developments, and characterised by extensive grazing and deforestation. A forest transition was observed in the Brazilian frontier, enabled by alignment of social movements and state policy. To advance understanding of forest transitions, scholars should broaden the analytical use of the FTT to include lock-ins that hinder transitions, while considering power-dynamics and the agency of social movements. Advanced understanding is urgent to promote forest transitions as part of the strategy to achieve global restoration targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Understanding forest transitions and lock-ins in Latin American agro-forest frontiers: aligning theory to practice for accelerating restoration.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lohbeck%2C+Madelon%22">Lohbeck, Madelon</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> madelon.lohbeck@wur.nl</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kuyper%2C+Thomas+W%2E%22">Kuyper, Thomas W.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bongers%2C+Frans%22">Bongers, Frans</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Aguilar-Fernández%2C+Rocío%22">Aguilar-Fernández, Rocío</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Balvanera%2C+Patricia%22">Balvanera, Patricia</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Behagel%2C+Jelle%22">Behagel, Jelle</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Berget%2C+Carolina%22">Berget, Carolina</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bianchi%2C+Felix%22">Bianchi, Felix</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cardoso%2C+Irene+Maria%22">Cardoso, Irene Maria</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22de+Carvalho+Gomes%2C+Lucas%22">de Carvalho Gomes, Lucas</searchLink><relatesTo>8</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cruz-Morales%2C+Juana%22">Cruz-Morales, Juana</searchLink><relatesTo>9</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Decuyper%2C+Mathieu%22">Decuyper, Mathieu</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22García+Barrios%2C+Luís%22">García Barrios, Luís</searchLink><relatesTo>10</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22García-Frapolli%2C+Eduardo%22">García-Frapolli, Eduardo</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gavito%2C+Mayra+E%2E%22">Gavito, Mayra E.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Goris%2C+Margriet%22">Goris, Margriet</searchLink><relatesTo>5,11,12</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Heinze%2C+Alan%22">Heinze, Alan</searchLink><relatesTo>1,13</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hernández+Guzmán%2C+Alejandra%22">Hernández Guzmán, Alejandra</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Martínez-Ramos%2C+Miguel%22">Martínez-Ramos, Miguel</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Meza+Jiménez%2C+Amayrani%22">Meza Jiménez, Amayrani</searchLink><relatesTo>10</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Global+Environmental+Change+Part+A%3A+Human+%26+Policy+Dimensions%22">Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions</searchLink>. Jul2026, Vol. 98, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
– Name: Subject
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Agroforestry%22">Agroforestry</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Reforestation%22">Reforestation</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+dynamics%22">Forest dynamics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Government+policy%22">Government policy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Social+movements%22">Social movements</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Institutional+environment%22">Institutional environment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Latin+Americans%22">Latin Americans</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mexico%22">Mexico</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Brazil%22">Brazil</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: [Display omitted] • Alignment of state policy and social movement is an overlooked driver of forest transitions. • Structural and economic lock-ins can hamper local forest transitions. • Sudden events that lead to rapid forest loss are not included in the FTT. • There is a need to align policy with local needs and restoration goals. The agro-forest frontier is the dynamic border between agricultural and forested lands. Drawing on results from an interdisciplinary research programme, we synthesise and compare social-ecological dynamics in three Latin American agro-forest frontiers: Marqués de Comillas and La Sepultura in Mexico, and Zona da Mata in Brazil. Each includes extensive livestock grazing, rain-fed agriculture, secondary vegetation, and state-protected areas. Forest transition theory (FTT) proposes that after settlement, forest cover decreases until a turning point (the forest transition) when forest cover may start to increase. We asked what drives forest cover change in each site and how well the FTT reflects empirical evidence. We quantified past forest dynamics, positioned the frontiers along the 'forest transition curve', qualitatively assessed their drivers of change, and evaluated the fit between theoretical models and empirical evidence. The frontiers represented different socio-ecological dynamics, resulting in contrasting forest cover trends that extend beyond patterns described by the FTT. The two Mexican frontiers appeared to be locked into pathways away from forest transitions; one driven by state-led conservation, and characterised by low-productive agriculture and forest degradation; the other driven by globalisation and neoliberal developments, and characterised by extensive grazing and deforestation. A forest transition was observed in the Brazilian frontier, enabled by alignment of social movements and state policy. To advance understanding of forest transitions, scholars should broaden the analytical use of the FTT to include lock-ins that hinder transitions, while considering power-dynamics and the agency of social movements. Advanced understanding is urgent to promote forest transitions as part of the strategy to achieve global restoration targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=8gh&AN=193808165
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        Value: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103160
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Agroforestry
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Reforestation
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