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The Characteristic, Multiscale Dynamic Mechanisms and Impacts of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Yangtze River Valley.

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Title: The Characteristic, Multiscale Dynamic Mechanisms and Impacts of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Yangtze River Valley.
Authors: Gu, Yu1 (AUTHOR), Lei, Hongjia2,3 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Lingzhi4 (AUTHOR), Ma, Qianrong2,4,5 (AUTHOR) maqianron_g@163.com, Li, Yang6 (AUTHOR), Sun, Shanlei7 (AUTHOR), Yan, Pengcheng8 (AUTHOR) yanpc@iamcma.cn, Jiao, Yang9 (AUTHOR)
Source: International Journal of Climatology. Jul2026, Vol. 46 Issue 9, p1-16. 16p.
Subject Terms: *Rainfall, *Typhoons, *Climate change, Energy transfer, At-risk people, Continuous time models, Fronts (Meteorology)
Geographic Terms: Yangtze River Valley (China)
Abstract: Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) pose persistent threats to population safety and infrastructure. This study classifies five population‐weighted HPE types (P1–P5) and examines their underlying dynamics using multiscale window transform and canonical energy transfer framework. Each type links to distinct circulation patterns. During 1979–2020, P1 and P2 are associated with Meiyu front systems, with P1 producing stronger precipitation. P2 accounts for 68% of all events, resulting in the greatest population exposure. P3 is driven by landfalling typhoons and represents the second most frequent type. P4 arises from short‐wave disturbances that primarily affect northern YRV, whereas P5 is concentrated in the western YRV and influenced by low‐vortex systems. Multiscale energy diagnostics show that most HPEs draw energy from the transfer of available potential energy (APE) from background to synoptic circulations, which subsequently convert to kinetic energy (KE). This transfer dominates the maintenance of P1 and P2. In contrast, P3 cases rely more on KE cascades, reflecting their stronger dynamic forcing. P4 and P5 exhibit weaker exchanges and depend more on background circulations. Additionally, future climate projections indicate that warming will amplify convective instability and strengthen APE‐to‐KE conversions in P1 and P3, but weaken these transfers in P2, P4, and P5. As a result, the currently dominant P2 type is expected to decline, while P1 and P3 become more frequent. By 2100, the population exposed to these type events will increase by more than 20%, posing substantial risks to societal resilience and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of International Journal of Climatology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: The Characteristic, Multiscale Dynamic Mechanisms and Impacts of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Yangtze River Valley.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gu%2C+Yu%22">Gu, Yu</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lei%2C+Hongjia%22">Lei, Hongjia</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Lingzhi%22">Zhang, Lingzhi</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ma%2C+Qianrong%22">Ma, Qianrong</searchLink><relatesTo>2,4,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> maqianron_g@163.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Li%2C+Yang%22">Li, Yang</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sun%2C+Shanlei%22">Sun, Shanlei</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yan%2C+Pengcheng%22">Yan, Pengcheng</searchLink><relatesTo>8</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> yanpc@iamcma.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jiao%2C+Yang%22">Jiao, Yang</searchLink><relatesTo>9</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22International+Journal+of+Climatology%22">International Journal of Climatology</searchLink>. Jul2026, Vol. 46 Issue 9, p1-16. 16p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Yangtze+River+Valley+%28China%29%22">Yangtze River Valley (China)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) pose persistent threats to population safety and infrastructure. This study classifies five population‐weighted HPE types (P1–P5) and examines their underlying dynamics using multiscale window transform and canonical energy transfer framework. Each type links to distinct circulation patterns. During 1979–2020, P1 and P2 are associated with Meiyu front systems, with P1 producing stronger precipitation. P2 accounts for 68% of all events, resulting in the greatest population exposure. P3 is driven by landfalling typhoons and represents the second most frequent type. P4 arises from short‐wave disturbances that primarily affect northern YRV, whereas P5 is concentrated in the western YRV and influenced by low‐vortex systems. Multiscale energy diagnostics show that most HPEs draw energy from the transfer of available potential energy (APE) from background to synoptic circulations, which subsequently convert to kinetic energy (KE). This transfer dominates the maintenance of P1 and P2. In contrast, P3 cases rely more on KE cascades, reflecting their stronger dynamic forcing. P4 and P5 exhibit weaker exchanges and depend more on background circulations. Additionally, future climate projections indicate that warming will amplify convective instability and strengthen APE‐to‐KE conversions in P1 and P3, but weaken these transfers in P2, P4, and P5. As a result, the currently dominant P2 type is expected to decline, while P1 and P3 become more frequent. By 2100, the population exposed to these type events will increase by more than 20%, posing substantial risks to societal resilience and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of International Journal of Climatology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1002/joc.70406
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 16
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Rainfall
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Typhoons
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy transfer
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: At-risk people
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Continuous time models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fronts (Meteorology)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Yangtze River Valley (China)
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: The Characteristic, Multiscale Dynamic Mechanisms and Impacts of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Yangtze River Valley.
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            NameFull: Gu, Yu
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            NameFull: Lei, Hongjia
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            NameFull: Zhang, Lingzhi
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            NameFull: Ma, Qianrong
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            NameFull: Li, Yang
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            NameFull: Sun, Shanlei
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            NameFull: Yan, Pengcheng
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            – D: 01
              M: 07
              Text: Jul2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 46
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