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Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling: a case study of South Chickamauga Creek watershed using BASINS/HSPF

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Title: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling: a case study of South Chickamauga Creek watershed using BASINS/HSPF
Authors: Dey, Preyanka
Committee Members: Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Wu, Weidong; Ghasemi, Arash; Hossain, A.K.M. Azad; College of Engineering and Computer Science
Summary: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are crucial for the quality control and application of hydrological models in water resources management. While sensitivity analysis identifies major input parameters affecting model response, uncertainty analysis evaluates the uncertainty in model predictions. In this analysis, a Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was developed for simulating surface and sub-surface hydrology, and creek flows in the South Chickamauga Creek Watershed, TN. The HSPF model was calibrated against USGS observed data from January 2013 to December 2017 and was validated for the period January 2018 to October 2019. Parameter Sensitivity analysis using the one-at-a-time (OAT) perturbation method revealed that watershed hydrology was highly sensitive to evapotranspiration and groundwater-related parameters. Uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube parameter sampling demonstrated the highest uncertainty in extreme flows and least uncertainty in annual runoff predictions. Overall, model output distribution was more uniform and achieved convergence faster with Latin hypercube sampling.
URL: https://scholar.utc.edu/theses/712
Database: OpenDissertations
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Header DbId: ddu
DbLabel: OpenDissertations
An: ddu.oai.scholar.utc.edu.theses.1886
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Dissertation/ Thesis
PubTypeId: dissertation
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling: a case study of South Chickamauga Creek watershed using BASINS/HSPF
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dey%2C+Preyanka%22">Dey, Preyanka</searchLink>
– Name: Author
  Label: Committee Members
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="CO" term="%22Bathi%2C+Jejal+Reddy%22">Bathi, Jejal Reddy</searchLink>; <searchLink fieldCode="CO" term="%22Wu%2C+Weidong%22">Wu, Weidong</searchLink>; <searchLink fieldCode="CO" term="%22Ghasemi%2C+Arash%22">Ghasemi, Arash</searchLink>; <searchLink fieldCode="CO" term="%22Hossain%2C+A%2EK%2EM%2E+Azad%22">Hossain, A.K.M. Azad</searchLink>; <searchLink fieldCode="CO" term="%22College+of+Engineering+and+Computer+Science%22">College of Engineering and Computer Science</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Summary
  Group: Ab
  Data: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are crucial for the quality control and application of hydrological models in water resources management. While sensitivity analysis identifies major input parameters affecting model response, uncertainty analysis evaluates the uncertainty in model predictions. In this analysis, a Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was developed for simulating surface and sub-surface hydrology, and creek flows in the South Chickamauga Creek Watershed, TN. The HSPF model was calibrated against USGS observed data from January 2013 to December 2017 and was validated for the period January 2018 to October 2019. Parameter Sensitivity analysis using the one-at-a-time (OAT) perturbation method revealed that watershed hydrology was highly sensitive to evapotranspiration and groundwater-related parameters. Uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube parameter sampling demonstrated the highest uncertainty in extreme flows and least uncertainty in annual runoff predictions. Overall, model output distribution was more uniform and achieved convergence faster with Latin hypercube sampling.
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  Label: URL
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  Data: <link linkTarget="URL" linkTerm="https://scholar.utc.edu/theses/712" linkWindow="_blank">https://scholar.utc.edu/theses/712</link>
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Computer programs--Validation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hydraulic models
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling: a case study of South Chickamauga Creek watershed using BASINS/HSPF
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Dey, Preyanka
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 05
              Type: published
              Y: 2021
ResultId 1