GLOWORM-FL: A simulation model of the effects of climate and climate change on the free-living stages of gastro-intestinal nematode parasites of ruminants.
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| Title: | GLOWORM-FL: A simulation model of the effects of climate and climate change on the free-living stages of gastro-intestinal nematode parasites of ruminants. |
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| Authors: | Rose, Hannah1,2 hannah.rose@bristol.ac.uk, Wang, Tong1, van Dijk, Jan3, Morgan, Eric R.2,4 |
| Source: | Ecological Modelling. Feb2015, Vol. 297, p232-245. 14p. |
| Subjects: | Ecology simulation methods, Parasite life cycles, Physiological effects of climate change, Livestock parasites, Animal diseases, Ruminants, Gastrointestinal system, Nematode infections |
| Abstract: | Gastrointestinal nematodes are important parasites of livestock and wildlife worldwide, causing mortality and morbidity, regulating host populations and threatening food security through reduced productivity of ruminant livestock. A significant part of the life-cycle of most GINs is completed outside of the host. GINs are therefore susceptible to changes in climate, and evidence of climate-driven changes in the phenology of GINs and the seasonal incidence of disease already exists. A modelling framework, GLOWORM-FL was developed to predict changes in the seasonal dynamics of the free-living stages of trichostrongylid GINs on pasture as a first step towards evaluating potential mitigation strategies. The general model framework was parameterised and validated for three GIN species that infect a range of ruminants worldwide: Haemonchus contortus , Teladorsagia circumcincta and Ostertagia ostertagi . The model builds significantly on previous models of GIN population dynamics by incorporating the behaviour of nematodes in response to climate variability, facilitated by recent advances in our understanding of the ecology of GINs. Simulations using historical and predicted future climatic data for a temperate region reveal the potential for an increase in annual infection pressure of H. contortus and T. circumcincta in small ruminants as increasing temperatures accelerate development and remove constraints on the development of H. contortus during the winter months. In contrast, a significant decrease in annual infection pressure is predicted for O. ostertagi in cattle due to accelerated development being offset by rapid mortality at higher temperatures. A similar trade-off is predicted during the summer months for H. contortus and T. circumcincta resulting in complex seasonal dynamics of the availability of infective stages on pasture. These changes could have significant impacts on the seasonal incidence and pathology of infection by GINs. GLOWORM-FL therefore provides an important tool to predict the seasonal risk of transmission of GINs and will aid in the design of climate-driven, risk-based GIN control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Ecological Modelling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 100508719 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: GLOWORM-FL: A simulation model of the effects of climate and climate change on the free-living stages of gastro-intestinal nematode parasites of ruminants. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rose%2C+Hannah%22">Rose, Hannah</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><i> hannah.rose@bristol.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wang%2C+Tong%22">Wang, Tong</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22van+Dijk%2C+Jan%22">van Dijk, Jan</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Morgan%2C+Eric+R%2E%22">Morgan, Eric R.</searchLink><relatesTo>2,4</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecological+Modelling%22">Ecological Modelling</searchLink>. Feb2015, Vol. 297, p232-245. 14p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ecology+simulation+methods%22">Ecology simulation methods</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Parasite+life+cycles%22">Parasite life cycles</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Physiological+effects+of+climate+change%22">Physiological effects of climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Livestock+parasites%22">Livestock parasites</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Animal+diseases%22">Animal diseases</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ruminants%22">Ruminants</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gastrointestinal+system%22">Gastrointestinal system</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Nematode+infections%22">Nematode infections</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Gastrointestinal nematodes are important parasites of livestock and wildlife worldwide, causing mortality and morbidity, regulating host populations and threatening food security through reduced productivity of ruminant livestock. A significant part of the life-cycle of most GINs is completed outside of the host. GINs are therefore susceptible to changes in climate, and evidence of climate-driven changes in the phenology of GINs and the seasonal incidence of disease already exists. A modelling framework, GLOWORM-FL was developed to predict changes in the seasonal dynamics of the free-living stages of trichostrongylid GINs on pasture as a first step towards evaluating potential mitigation strategies. The general model framework was parameterised and validated for three GIN species that infect a range of ruminants worldwide: Haemonchus contortus , Teladorsagia circumcincta and Ostertagia ostertagi . The model builds significantly on previous models of GIN population dynamics by incorporating the behaviour of nematodes in response to climate variability, facilitated by recent advances in our understanding of the ecology of GINs. Simulations using historical and predicted future climatic data for a temperate region reveal the potential for an increase in annual infection pressure of H. contortus and T. circumcincta in small ruminants as increasing temperatures accelerate development and remove constraints on the development of H. contortus during the winter months. In contrast, a significant decrease in annual infection pressure is predicted for O. ostertagi in cattle due to accelerated development being offset by rapid mortality at higher temperatures. A similar trade-off is predicted during the summer months for H. contortus and T. circumcincta resulting in complex seasonal dynamics of the availability of infective stages on pasture. These changes could have significant impacts on the seasonal incidence and pathology of infection by GINs. GLOWORM-FL therefore provides an important tool to predict the seasonal risk of transmission of GINs and will aid in the design of climate-driven, risk-based GIN control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Ecological Modelling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.033 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 14 StartPage: 232 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Ecology simulation methods Type: general – SubjectFull: Parasite life cycles Type: general – SubjectFull: Physiological effects of climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Livestock parasites Type: general – SubjectFull: Animal diseases Type: general – SubjectFull: Ruminants Type: general – SubjectFull: Gastrointestinal system Type: general – SubjectFull: Nematode infections Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: GLOWORM-FL: A simulation model of the effects of climate and climate change on the free-living stages of gastro-intestinal nematode parasites of ruminants. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Rose, Hannah – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Wang, Tong – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: van Dijk, Jan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Morgan, Eric R. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 10 M: 02 Text: Feb2015 Type: published Y: 2015 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 03043800 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 297 Titles: – TitleFull: Ecological Modelling Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
