A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century.
Saved in:
| Title: | A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Likhvar, Victoria N.1 vlikhvar@gmail.com, Pascal, Mathilde2 m.pascal@invs.sante.fr, Markakis, Konstantinos3 konstantinos.markakis@lmd.polytechnique.fr, Colette, Augustin4 augustin.colette@ineris.fr, Hauglustaine, Didier1 didier.hauglustaine@lsce.ipsl.fr, Valari, Myrto3 myrto.valari@lmd.polytechnique.fr, Klimont, Zbigniew5 klimont@iiasa.ac.at, Medina, Sylvia2 s.medina@invs.sante.fr, Kinney, Patrick6 plk3@columbia.edu |
| Source: | Science of the Total Environment. May2015, Vol. 514, p439-449. 11p. |
| Subjects: | Health impact assessment, Air pollution, Public health, Emissions (Air pollution), Climate change, Comparative studies |
| Abstract: | Background Ozone and PM 2.5 are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. To better understand the potential of emissions policies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. Method We used consistent climate–air-quality–health modeling framework across three geographical scales (World, Europe and Ile-de-France) to assess future (2030–2050) health impacts of ozone and PM 2.5 under two emissions scenarios (Current Legislation Emissions, CLE, and Maximum Feasible Reductions, MFR). Results Consistently across the scales, we found more reductions in deaths under MFR scenario compared to CLE. 1.5 [95% CI: 0.4, 2.4] million CV deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010 under MFR scenario, 84% of which would occur in Asia, especially in China. In Europe, the benefits under MFR scenario (219 000 CV deaths) are noticeably larger than those under CLE (109 000 CV deaths). In Ile-de-France, under MFR more than 2830 annual CV deaths associated with PM 2.5 changes could be delayed in 2050 compared to 2010. In Paris, ozone-related respiratory mortality should increase under both scenarios. Conclusion Multi-scale HIAs can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies and provide results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Science of the Total Environment is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
Be the first to leave a comment!
