Performance of Weibull and Linear Semi-logarithmic Models in Simulating Escherichia coli Inactivation in Waters.

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Title: Performance of Weibull and Linear Semi-logarithmic Models in Simulating Escherichia coli Inactivation in Waters.
Authors: Stocker, M. D.1, Pachepsky, Y. A.2 yakov.pachepsky@ars.usda.gov, Shelton, D. R.2
Source: Journal of Environmental Quality. Sep/Oct2014, Vol. 43 Issue 5, p1559-1565. 7p.
Subjects: Escherichia coli, Weibull distribution, Water quality, Microorganisms, Log-linear models
Abstract: Modeling inactivation of indicator microorganisms is a necessary component of microbial water quality forecast and management recommendations. The linear semi-logarithmic (LSL) model is commonly used to simulate the dependencies of bacterial concentrations in waters on time. There were indications that assumption of the semi-logarithmic linearity may not be accurate enough in waters. The objective of this work was to compare performance of the LSL and the two-parametric Weibull inactivation models with data on survival of indicator organism Escherichia coli in various types of water from a representative database of 167 laboratory experiments. The Weibull model was preferred in >99% of all cases when the root mean squared errors and Nash-Sutcliffe statistics were compared. Comparison of corrected Akaike statistic values gave the preference to the Weibull model in only 35% of cases. This was caused by (i) a small number of experimental points on some inactivation curves, (ii) closeness of the shape parameter of the Weibull equation to one, and (iii) piecewise log-linear inactivation dynamic that could be well described by neither of the two models compared. Based on the Akaike test, the Weibull model was favored in agricultural, lake, and pristine waters, whereas the LSL model was preferred for groundwater, wastewater, rivers, and marine waters. The decimal reduction time parameter of both the LSL and Weibull models exhibited an Arrhenius-type dependence on temperature. Overall, the existing E. coli inactivation data indicate that the application of the Weibull model can improve the predictive capabilities of microbial water quality modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Environmental Quality is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Performance of Weibull and Linear Semi-logarithmic Models in Simulating Escherichia coli Inactivation in Waters.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stocker%2C+M%2E+D%2E%22">Stocker, M. D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pachepsky%2C+Y%2E+A%2E%22">Pachepsky, Y. A.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><i> yakov.pachepsky@ars.usda.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shelton%2C+D%2E+R%2E%22">Shelton, D. R.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Environmental+Quality%22">Journal of Environmental Quality</searchLink>. Sep/Oct2014, Vol. 43 Issue 5, p1559-1565. 7p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Escherichia+coli%22">Escherichia coli</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weibull+distribution%22">Weibull distribution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+quality%22">Water quality</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Microorganisms%22">Microorganisms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Log-linear+models%22">Log-linear models</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Modeling inactivation of indicator microorganisms is a necessary component of microbial water quality forecast and management recommendations. The linear semi-logarithmic (LSL) model is commonly used to simulate the dependencies of bacterial concentrations in waters on time. There were indications that assumption of the semi-logarithmic linearity may not be accurate enough in waters. The objective of this work was to compare performance of the LSL and the two-parametric Weibull inactivation models with data on survival of indicator organism Escherichia coli in various types of water from a representative database of 167 laboratory experiments. The Weibull model was preferred in >99% of all cases when the root mean squared errors and Nash-Sutcliffe statistics were compared. Comparison of corrected Akaike statistic values gave the preference to the Weibull model in only 35% of cases. This was caused by (i) a small number of experimental points on some inactivation curves, (ii) closeness of the shape parameter of the Weibull equation to one, and (iii) piecewise log-linear inactivation dynamic that could be well described by neither of the two models compared. Based on the Akaike test, the Weibull model was favored in agricultural, lake, and pristine waters, whereas the LSL model was preferred for groundwater, wastewater, rivers, and marine waters. The decimal reduction time parameter of both the LSL and Weibull models exhibited an Arrhenius-type dependence on temperature. Overall, the existing E. coli inactivation data indicate that the application of the Weibull model can improve the predictive capabilities of microbial water quality modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Environmental Quality is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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        Value: 10.2134/jeq2014.01.0023
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 7
        StartPage: 1559
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      – SubjectFull: Escherichia coli
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Weibull distribution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water quality
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Microorganisms
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      – SubjectFull: Log-linear models
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      – TitleFull: Performance of Weibull and Linear Semi-logarithmic Models in Simulating Escherichia coli Inactivation in Waters.
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              M: 09
              Text: Sep/Oct2014
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