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Petroleum demand forecasting for Taiwan using modified fuzzy-grey algorithms.

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Title: Petroleum demand forecasting for Taiwan using modified fuzzy-grey algorithms.
Authors: Lu, Shin ‐ Li1 au1204@mail.au.edu.tw, Tsai, Chen ‐ Fang1
Source: Expert Systems. Feb2016, Vol. 33 Issue 1, p60-69. 10p.
Subjects: Petroleum supply & demand forecasting, Gray forecasting model, Mathematical models of forecasting, Fuzzy logic
Geographic Terms: Taiwan
Abstract: In this paper, we adopt the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method to develop the residual modification EWMA grey forecasting model REGM(1,1) and combines it with fuzzy theory to derive the fuzzy REGM or the FREGM(1,1) model. The proposed model is used to forecast annual petroleum demand in Taiwan. The experimental results show that the mean absolute percentage errors, median absolute percentage error, and symmetric mean absolute percentage error of FREGM(1,1) model are higher by 23.71, 12.26, and 23.06% respectively, compared with those obtained using the traditional GM(1,1) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Expert Systems is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Petroleum demand forecasting for Taiwan using modified fuzzy-grey algorithms.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lu%2C+Shin+‐+Li%22">Lu, Shin ‐ Li</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> au1204@mail.au.edu.tw</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tsai%2C+Chen+‐+Fang%22">Tsai, Chen ‐ Fang</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Expert+Systems%22">Expert Systems</searchLink>. Feb2016, Vol. 33 Issue 1, p60-69. 10p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Petroleum+supply+%26+demand+forecasting%22">Petroleum supply & demand forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gray+forecasting+model%22">Gray forecasting model</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematical+models+of+forecasting%22">Mathematical models of forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fuzzy+logic%22">Fuzzy logic</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Taiwan%22">Taiwan</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: In this paper, we adopt the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method to develop the residual modification EWMA grey forecasting model REGM(1,1) and combines it with fuzzy theory to derive the fuzzy REGM or the FREGM(1,1) model. The proposed model is used to forecast annual petroleum demand in Taiwan. The experimental results show that the mean absolute percentage errors, median absolute percentage error, and symmetric mean absolute percentage error of FREGM(1,1) model are higher by 23.71, 12.26, and 23.06% respectively, compared with those obtained using the traditional GM(1,1) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Expert Systems is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1111/exsy.12129
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 10
        StartPage: 60
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Petroleum supply & demand forecasting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Gray forecasting model
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mathematical models of forecasting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fuzzy logic
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Taiwan
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Petroleum demand forecasting for Taiwan using modified fuzzy-grey algorithms.
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            NameFull: Lu, Shin ‐ Li
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            NameFull: Tsai, Chen ‐ Fang
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              Text: Feb2016
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              Y: 2016
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              Value: 33
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