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Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States.

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Title: Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States.
Authors: Noori, Mehdi1 noori@ucf.edu, Tatari, Omer1
Source: Energy. Feb2016, Vol. 96, p215-230. 16p.
Subjects: Multiagent systems, Electric vehicle industry, Energy security, Energy economics, Transportation
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: One of the most promising strategies recommended for increasing energy security and for mitigating transportation sector emissions is to support alternative fuel technologies, including electric vehicles. However, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the market penetration of electric vehicles that must be accounted for in order to achieve the current market share goals. This paper aims to address these inherent uncertainties and to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the United States for the year 2030, using the developed Electric Vehicle Regional Market Penetration tool. First, considering their respective inherent uncertainties, the vehicle attributes are evaluated for different vehicle types, including internal combustion engine, gasoline hybrid, and three different electric vehicle types. In addition, an agent-based model is developed to identify the market shares of each of the studied vehicles. Finally, market share uncertainties are modeled using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis approach. The government subsidies play a vital role in the market adoption of electric vehicle and, when combined with the word-of-mouth effect, may achieve electric vehicle market share of up to 30% of new sales in 2030 on average, with all-electric vehicles having the highest market share among the electric vehicle options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Energy is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 112849433
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Data: Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Noori%2C+Mehdi%22">Noori, Mehdi</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> noori@ucf.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tatari%2C+Omer%22">Tatari, Omer</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energy%22">Energy</searchLink>. Feb2016, Vol. 96, p215-230. 16p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Multiagent+systems%22">Multiagent systems</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electric+vehicle+industry%22">Electric vehicle industry</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+security%22">Energy security</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+economics%22">Energy economics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Transportation%22">Transportation</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: One of the most promising strategies recommended for increasing energy security and for mitigating transportation sector emissions is to support alternative fuel technologies, including electric vehicles. However, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the market penetration of electric vehicles that must be accounted for in order to achieve the current market share goals. This paper aims to address these inherent uncertainties and to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the United States for the year 2030, using the developed Electric Vehicle Regional Market Penetration tool. First, considering their respective inherent uncertainties, the vehicle attributes are evaluated for different vehicle types, including internal combustion engine, gasoline hybrid, and three different electric vehicle types. In addition, an agent-based model is developed to identify the market shares of each of the studied vehicles. Finally, market share uncertainties are modeled using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis approach. The government subsidies play a vital role in the market adoption of electric vehicle and, when combined with the word-of-mouth effect, may achieve electric vehicle market share of up to 30% of new sales in 2030 on average, with all-electric vehicles having the highest market share among the electric vehicle options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Energy is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.018
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 16
        StartPage: 215
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Multiagent systems
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electric vehicle industry
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy security
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy economics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Transportation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States.
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            NameFull: Noori, Mehdi
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            NameFull: Tatari, Omer
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              Text: Feb2016
              Type: published
              Y: 2016
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              Value: 96
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