View in EDS

Short term solar radiation forecasting: Island versus continental sites.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Short term solar radiation forecasting: Island versus continental sites.
Authors: Boland, John1 john.boland@unisa.edu.au, David, Mathieu2 mathieu.david@univ-reunion.fr, Lauret, Philippe2
Source: Energy. Oct2016, Vol. 113, p186-192. 7p.
Subjects: Solar energy, Solar radiation, Electric power distribution grids, Intermittency (Nuclear physics), Energy consumption, Energy economics
Abstract: Due its intermittency, the large-scale integration of solar energy into electricity grids is an issue and more specifically in an insular context. Thus, forecasting the output of solar energy is a key feature to efficiently manage the supply-demand balance. In this paper, three short term forecasting procedures are applied to island locations in order to see how they perform in situations that are potentially more volatile than continental locations. Two continental locations, one coastal and one inland are chosen for comparison. At the two time scales studied, ten minute and hourly, the island locations prove to be more difficult to forecast, as shown by larger forecast errors. It is found that the three methods, one purely statistical combining Fourier series plus linear ARMA models, one combining clear sky index models plus neural net models, and a third using a clear sky index plus ARMA, give similar forecasting results. It is also suggested that there is great potential of merging modelling approaches on different horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Energy is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 118697928
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Short term solar radiation forecasting: Island versus continental sites.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Boland%2C+John%22">Boland, John</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> john.boland@unisa.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22David%2C+Mathieu%22">David, Mathieu</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><i> mathieu.david@univ-reunion.fr</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lauret%2C+Philippe%22">Lauret, Philippe</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo>
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energy%22">Energy</searchLink>. Oct2016, Vol. 113, p186-192. 7p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Solar+energy%22">Solar energy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Solar+radiation%22">Solar radiation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electric+power+distribution+grids%22">Electric power distribution grids</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Intermittency+%28Nuclear+physics%29%22">Intermittency (Nuclear physics)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+consumption%22">Energy consumption</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+economics%22">Energy economics</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Due its intermittency, the large-scale integration of solar energy into electricity grids is an issue and more specifically in an insular context. Thus, forecasting the output of solar energy is a key feature to efficiently manage the supply-demand balance. In this paper, three short term forecasting procedures are applied to island locations in order to see how they perform in situations that are potentially more volatile than continental locations. Two continental locations, one coastal and one inland are chosen for comparison. At the two time scales studied, ten minute and hourly, the island locations prove to be more difficult to forecast, as shown by larger forecast errors. It is found that the three methods, one purely statistical combining Fourier series plus linear ARMA models, one combining clear sky index models plus neural net models, and a third using a clear sky index plus ARMA, give similar forecasting results. It is also suggested that there is great potential of merging modelling approaches on different horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Energy is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=118697928
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.06.139
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 7
        StartPage: 186
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Solar energy
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Solar radiation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electric power distribution grids
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Intermittency (Nuclear physics)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy consumption
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy economics
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Short term solar radiation forecasting: Island versus continental sites.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Boland, John
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: David, Mathieu
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Lauret, Philippe
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 15
              M: 10
              Text: Oct2016
              Type: published
              Y: 2016
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 03605442
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 113
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Energy
              Type: main
ResultId 1