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A hypothesis of a redistribution of North Atlantic swordfish based on changing ocean conditions.

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Title: A hypothesis of a redistribution of North Atlantic swordfish based on changing ocean conditions.
Authors: Schirripa, Michael J.1 Michael.Schirripa@noaa.gov, Abascal, F.2, Andrushchenko, Irene3, Diaz, Guillermo1, Mejuto, Jaime4, Ortiz, Maricio5, Santos, M.N.6, Walter, John1
Source: Deep-Sea Research Part II, Topical Studies in Oceanography. Jun2017, Vol. 140, p139-150. 12p.
Subjects: Swordfish, Species diversity, Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Statistical hypothesis testing, Ocean temperature
Abstract: Conflicting trends in indices of abundance for North Atlantic swordfish starting in the mid-to late 1990s, in the form of fleet specific catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE), suggest the possibility of a spatial shift in abundance to follow areas of preferred temperature. The observed changes in the direction of the CPUEs correspond with changes in trends in the summer Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a long term mode of variability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. To test the hypothesis of a relation between the CPUE and the AMO, the CPUEs were made spatially explicit by re-estimating using an “areas-as-fleets” approach. These new CPUEs were then used to create alternative stock histories. The residuals of the fit were then regressed against the summer AMO. Significant, and opposite, relations were found in the regressions between eastern and western Atlantic areas. When the AMO was in a warm phase, the CPUEs in the western (eastern) areas were higher (lower) than predicted by the assessment model fit. Given the observed temperature tolerance limits of swordfish, it is possible that either their preferred habitat, prey species, or both have shifted spatial distributions resulting in conflicting CPUE indices. Because the available CPUE time series only overlaps with one change in the sign of the AMO (~1995), it is not clear whether this is a directional or cyclical trend. Given the relatively localized nature of many of the fishing fleets, and the difficulty of separating fleet effects from changes in oceanography we feel that it is critical to create CPUE indices by combining data across similar fleets that fish in similar areas. This approach allowed us to evaluate area-specific catch rates which provided the power to detect basin-wide responses to changing oceanography, a critical step for providing robust management advice in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Deep-Sea Research Part II, Topical Studies in Oceanography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: A hypothesis of a redistribution of North Atlantic swordfish based on changing ocean conditions.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Schirripa%2C+Michael+J%2E%22">Schirripa, Michael J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> Michael.Schirripa@noaa.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Abascal%2C+F%2E%22">Abascal, F.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Andrushchenko%2C+Irene%22">Andrushchenko, Irene</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Diaz%2C+Guillermo%22">Diaz, Guillermo</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mejuto%2C+Jaime%22">Mejuto, Jaime</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ortiz%2C+Maricio%22">Ortiz, Maricio</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Santos%2C+M%2EN%2E%22">Santos, M.N.</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Walter%2C+John%22">Walter, John</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Deep-Sea+Research+Part+II%2C+Topical+Studies+in+Oceanography%22">Deep-Sea Research Part II, Topical Studies in Oceanography</searchLink>. Jun2017, Vol. 140, p139-150. 12p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Swordfish%22">Swordfish</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species+diversity%22">Species diversity</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atlantic+multidecadal+oscillation%22">Atlantic multidecadal oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+hypothesis+testing%22">Statistical hypothesis testing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink>
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  Data: Conflicting trends in indices of abundance for North Atlantic swordfish starting in the mid-to late 1990s, in the form of fleet specific catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE), suggest the possibility of a spatial shift in abundance to follow areas of preferred temperature. The observed changes in the direction of the CPUEs correspond with changes in trends in the summer Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a long term mode of variability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. To test the hypothesis of a relation between the CPUE and the AMO, the CPUEs were made spatially explicit by re-estimating using an “areas-as-fleets” approach. These new CPUEs were then used to create alternative stock histories. The residuals of the fit were then regressed against the summer AMO. Significant, and opposite, relations were found in the regressions between eastern and western Atlantic areas. When the AMO was in a warm phase, the CPUEs in the western (eastern) areas were higher (lower) than predicted by the assessment model fit. Given the observed temperature tolerance limits of swordfish, it is possible that either their preferred habitat, prey species, or both have shifted spatial distributions resulting in conflicting CPUE indices. Because the available CPUE time series only overlaps with one change in the sign of the AMO (~1995), it is not clear whether this is a directional or cyclical trend. Given the relatively localized nature of many of the fishing fleets, and the difficulty of separating fleet effects from changes in oceanography we feel that it is critical to create CPUE indices by combining data across similar fleets that fish in similar areas. This approach allowed us to evaluate area-specific catch rates which provided the power to detect basin-wide responses to changing oceanography, a critical step for providing robust management advice in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Deep-Sea Research Part II, Topical Studies in Oceanography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.08.002
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        Text: English
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        StartPage: 139
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      – SubjectFull: Swordfish
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Species diversity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
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      – SubjectFull: Statistical hypothesis testing
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature
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      – TitleFull: A hypothesis of a redistribution of North Atlantic swordfish based on changing ocean conditions.
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              Text: Jun2017
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