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Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

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Title: Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.
Authors: Jin, Li1 li.jin@cortland.edu, Whitehead, Paul G.2, Rodda, Harvey3, Macadam, Ian4, Sarkar, Sananda5
Source: Science of the Total Environment. Oct2018, Vol. 637, p907-917. 11p.
Subjects: Computer simulation of climate change, Streamflow, Water quality, Watershed ecology
Geographic Terms: Mahanadi River (India)
Abstract: Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041–2060) and 2090s (2079–2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Science of the Total Environment is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 130224173
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Data: Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Computer+simulation+of+climate+change%22">Computer simulation of climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Streamflow%22">Streamflow</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+quality%22">Water quality</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Watershed+ecology%22">Watershed ecology</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mahanadi+River+%28India%29%22">Mahanadi River (India)</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041–2060) and 2090s (2079–2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Science of the Total Environment is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.349
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 11
        StartPage: 907
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Computer simulation of climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Streamflow
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water quality
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Watershed ecology
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      – SubjectFull: Mahanadi River (India)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.
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            NameFull: Jin, Li
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            NameFull: Whitehead, Paul G.
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            NameFull: Rodda, Harvey
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            NameFull: Macadam, Ian
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              M: 10
              Text: Oct2018
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              Y: 2018
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