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Evaluation of the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project (WWMPP) Using Two Approaches: Traditional Statistics and Ensemble Modeling.

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Title: Evaluation of the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project (WWMPP) Using Two Approaches: Traditional Statistics and Ensemble Modeling.
Authors: Rasmussen, Roy M.1, Tessendorf, Sarah A.1, Xue, Lulin1, Weeks, Courtney1, Ikeda, Kyoko1, Landolt, Scott1, Breed, Dan1, Deshler, Terry2, Lawrence, Barry3
Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology. Nov2018, Vol. 57 Issue 11, p2639-2660. 22p. 4 Charts, 15 Graphs, 2 Maps.
Subjects: Snowpack augmentation, Statistical models, Statistical methods of meteorological precipitation, Modification of meteorological precipitation, Null hypothesis
Geographic Terms: Sierra Madre (Wyo. & Colo.), Medicine Bow Mountains (Colo. & Wyo.), Wyoming
Abstract: The Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project randomized cloud seeding experiment was a crossover statistical experiment conducted over two mountain ranges in eastern Wyoming and lasted for 6 years (2008–13). The goal of the experiment was to determine if cloud seeding of orographic barriers could increase snowfall and snowpack. The experimental design included triply redundant snow gauges deployed in a target–control configuration, covariate snow gauges to account for precipitation variability, and ground-based seeding with silver iodide (AgI). The outcomes of this experiment are evaluated with the statistical–physical experiment design and with ensemble modeling. The root regression ratio (RRR) applied to 118 experimental units provided insufficient statistical evidence (p value of 0.28) to reject the null hypothesis that there was no effect from ground-based cloud seeding. Ensemble modeling estimates of the impact of ground-based seeding provide an alternate evaluation of the 6-yr experiment. The results of the model ensemble approach with and without seeding estimated a mean enhancement of precipitation of 5%, with an inner-quartile range of 3%–7%. Estimating the impact on annual precipitation over these mountain ranges requires results from another study that indicated that approximately 30% of the annual precipitation results from clouds identified as seedable within the seeding experiment. Thus the seeding impact is on the order of 1.5% of the annual precipitation, compared to 1% for the statistical–physical experiment, which was not sufficient to reject the null hypothesis. These results provide an estimate of the impact of ground-based cloud seeding in the Sierra Madre and Medicine Bow Mountains in Wyoming that accounts for uncertainties in both initial conditions and model physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Evaluation of the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project (WWMPP) Using Two Approaches: Traditional Statistics and Ensemble Modeling.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rasmussen%2C+Roy+M%2E%22">Rasmussen, Roy M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tessendorf%2C+Sarah+A%2E%22">Tessendorf, Sarah A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Xue%2C+Lulin%22">Xue, Lulin</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Weeks%2C+Courtney%22">Weeks, Courtney</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ikeda%2C+Kyoko%22">Ikeda, Kyoko</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Landolt%2C+Scott%22">Landolt, Scott</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Breed%2C+Dan%22">Breed, Dan</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Deshler%2C+Terry%22">Deshler, Terry</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lawrence%2C+Barry%22">Lawrence, Barry</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Applied+Meteorology+%26+Climatology%22">Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology</searchLink>. Nov2018, Vol. 57 Issue 11, p2639-2660. 22p. 4 Charts, 15 Graphs, 2 Maps.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Snowpack+augmentation%22">Snowpack augmentation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+models%22">Statistical models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+methods+of+meteorological+precipitation%22">Statistical methods of meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Modification+of+meteorological+precipitation%22">Modification of meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Null+hypothesis%22">Null hypothesis</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Sierra+Madre+%28Wyo%2E+%26+Colo%2E%29%22">Sierra Madre (Wyo. & Colo.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Medicine+Bow+Mountains+%28Colo%2E+%26+Wyo%2E%29%22">Medicine Bow Mountains (Colo. & Wyo.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wyoming%22">Wyoming</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project randomized cloud seeding experiment was a crossover statistical experiment conducted over two mountain ranges in eastern Wyoming and lasted for 6 years (2008–13). The goal of the experiment was to determine if cloud seeding of orographic barriers could increase snowfall and snowpack. The experimental design included triply redundant snow gauges deployed in a target–control configuration, covariate snow gauges to account for precipitation variability, and ground-based seeding with silver iodide (AgI). The outcomes of this experiment are evaluated with the statistical–physical experiment design and with ensemble modeling. The root regression ratio (RRR) applied to 118 experimental units provided insufficient statistical evidence (p value of 0.28) to reject the null hypothesis that there was no effect from ground-based cloud seeding. Ensemble modeling estimates of the impact of ground-based seeding provide an alternate evaluation of the 6-yr experiment. The results of the model ensemble approach with and without seeding estimated a mean enhancement of precipitation of 5%, with an inner-quartile range of 3%–7%. Estimating the impact on annual precipitation over these mountain ranges requires results from another study that indicated that approximately 30% of the annual precipitation results from clouds identified as seedable within the seeding experiment. Thus the seeding impact is on the order of 1.5% of the annual precipitation, compared to 1% for the statistical–physical experiment, which was not sufficient to reject the null hypothesis. These results provide an estimate of the impact of ground-based cloud seeding in the Sierra Madre and Medicine Bow Mountains in Wyoming that accounts for uncertainties in both initial conditions and model physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0335.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 22
        StartPage: 2639
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Snowpack augmentation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Statistical models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Statistical methods of meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Modification of meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Null hypothesis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Sierra Madre (Wyo. & Colo.)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Medicine Bow Mountains (Colo. & Wyo.)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wyoming
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Evaluation of the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project (WWMPP) Using Two Approaches: Traditional Statistics and Ensemble Modeling.
        Type: main
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            NameFull: Rasmussen, Roy M.
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            NameFull: Tessendorf, Sarah A.
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            NameFull: Xue, Lulin
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            NameFull: Weeks, Courtney
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            NameFull: Ikeda, Kyoko
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            NameFull: Landolt, Scott
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            NameFull: Breed, Dan
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            NameFull: Deshler, Terry
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            NameFull: Lawrence, Barry
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          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 11
              Text: Nov2018
              Type: published
              Y: 2018
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              Value: 15588424
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              Value: 57
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              Value: 11
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology
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