Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia.
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| Title: | Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia. |
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| Authors: | Sridhar, Venkataramana1 (AUTHOR) vsri@vt.edu, Modi, Parthkumar1 (AUTHOR), Billah, Mirza M.2 (AUTHOR), Valayamkunnath, Prasanth1 (AUTHOR), Goodall, Jonathan L.3 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of the American Water Resources Association. Aug2019, Vol. 55 Issue 4, p780-799. 20p. |
| Subjects: | Rainfall intensity duration frequencies, General circulation model, Climate change models, Meteorological research, Meteorological precipitation, Climate change |
| Geographic Terms: | Virginia |
| Abstract: | Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios. Research Impact Statement: Extreme events pose a challenge to Coastal Southeast Virginia. A 2–3 times increase in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity resulting in up to 50% increase in flood flows is likely in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of the American Water Resources Association is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 137820634 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sridhar%2C+Venkataramana%22">Sridhar, Venkataramana</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> vsri@vt.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Modi%2C+Parthkumar%22">Modi, Parthkumar</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Billah%2C+Mirza+M%2E%22">Billah, Mirza M.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Valayamkunnath%2C+Prasanth%22">Valayamkunnath, Prasanth</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Goodall%2C+Jonathan+L%2E%22">Goodall, Jonathan L.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+the+American+Water+Resources+Association%22">Journal of the American Water Resources Association</searchLink>. Aug2019, Vol. 55 Issue 4, p780-799. 20p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall+intensity+duration+frequencies%22">Rainfall intensity duration frequencies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22General+circulation+model%22">General circulation model</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+models%22">Climate change models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+research%22">Meteorological research</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Virginia%22">Virginia</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios. Research Impact Statement: Extreme events pose a challenge to Coastal Southeast Virginia. A 2–3 times increase in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity resulting in up to 50% increase in flood flows is likely in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of the American Water Resources Association is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1111/1752-1688.12752 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 20 StartPage: 780 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Rainfall intensity duration frequencies Type: general – SubjectFull: General circulation model Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change models Type: general – SubjectFull: Meteorological research Type: general – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Virginia Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Sridhar, Venkataramana – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Modi, Parthkumar – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Billah, Mirza M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Valayamkunnath, Prasanth – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Goodall, Jonathan L. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 08 Text: Aug2019 Type: published Y: 2019 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 1093474X Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 55 – Type: issue Value: 4 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of the American Water Resources Association Type: main |
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