Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia.

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Title: Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia.
Authors: Sridhar, Venkataramana1 (AUTHOR) vsri@vt.edu, Modi, Parthkumar1 (AUTHOR), Billah, Mirza M.2 (AUTHOR), Valayamkunnath, Prasanth1 (AUTHOR), Goodall, Jonathan L.3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of the American Water Resources Association. Aug2019, Vol. 55 Issue 4, p780-799. 20p.
Subjects: Rainfall intensity duration frequencies, General circulation model, Climate change models, Meteorological research, Meteorological precipitation, Climate change
Geographic Terms: Virginia
Abstract: Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios. Research Impact Statement: Extreme events pose a challenge to Coastal Southeast Virginia. A 2–3 times increase in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity resulting in up to 50% increase in flood flows is likely in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of the American Water Resources Association is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 137820634
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PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sridhar%2C+Venkataramana%22">Sridhar, Venkataramana</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> vsri@vt.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Modi%2C+Parthkumar%22">Modi, Parthkumar</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Billah%2C+Mirza+M%2E%22">Billah, Mirza M.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Valayamkunnath%2C+Prasanth%22">Valayamkunnath, Prasanth</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Goodall%2C+Jonathan+L%2E%22">Goodall, Jonathan L.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+the+American+Water+Resources+Association%22">Journal of the American Water Resources Association</searchLink>. Aug2019, Vol. 55 Issue 4, p780-799. 20p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall+intensity+duration+frequencies%22">Rainfall intensity duration frequencies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22General+circulation+model%22">General circulation model</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+models%22">Climate change models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+research%22">Meteorological research</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Virginia%22">Virginia</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios. Research Impact Statement: Extreme events pose a challenge to Coastal Southeast Virginia. A 2–3 times increase in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity resulting in up to 50% increase in flood flows is likely in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of the American Water Resources Association is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1111/1752-1688.12752
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 20
        StartPage: 780
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Rainfall intensity duration frequencies
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: General circulation model
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological research
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Virginia
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia.
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          Name:
            NameFull: Sridhar, Venkataramana
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            NameFull: Modi, Parthkumar
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            NameFull: Billah, Mirza M.
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            NameFull: Valayamkunnath, Prasanth
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            NameFull: Goodall, Jonathan L.
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              M: 08
              Text: Aug2019
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              Y: 2019
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