Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea.
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| Title: | Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea. |
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| Authors: | Weinert, Michael1,2 (AUTHOR) michaelweinert@gmail.com, Mathis, Moritz3 (AUTHOR) Moritz.Mathis@hzg.de, Kröncke, Ingrid2,4 (AUTHOR) Ingrid.Kroencke@senckenberg.de, Pohlmann, Thomas5 (AUTHOR) Thomas.Pohlmann@uni-hamburg.de, Reiss, Henning1 (AUTHOR) Henning.Reiss@nord.no |
| Source: | Marine Environmental Research. Jan2021, Vol. 163, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. |
| Subjects: | Marine parks & reserves, Climate change, Species distribution, Species, Wildlife conservation |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change. 1. Distributional changes will be most pronounced for the second half of the century 2. MPAs in the North Sea might not fulfil their objectives in the far future 3. Machine learning and regression-based methods showed high performance variation 4. Consensus models were an appropriate approach to reduce this variation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Marine Environmental Research is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 147964261 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Weinert%2C+Michael%22">Weinert, Michael</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> michaelweinert@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mathis%2C+Moritz%22">Mathis, Moritz</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Moritz.Mathis@hzg.de</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kröncke%2C+Ingrid%22">Kröncke, Ingrid</searchLink><relatesTo>2,4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Ingrid.Kroencke@senckenberg.de</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pohlmann%2C+Thomas%22">Pohlmann, Thomas</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Thomas.Pohlmann@uni-hamburg.de</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Reiss%2C+Henning%22">Reiss, Henning</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Henning.Reiss@nord.no</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Marine+Environmental+Research%22">Marine Environmental Research</searchLink>. Jan2021, Vol. 163, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Marine+parks+%26+reserves%22">Marine parks & reserves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species+distribution%22">Species distribution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species%22">Species</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wildlife+conservation%22">Wildlife conservation</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change. 1. Distributional changes will be most pronounced for the second half of the century 2. MPAs in the North Sea might not fulfil their objectives in the far future 3. Machine learning and regression-based methods showed high performance variation 4. Consensus models were an appropriate approach to reduce this variation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Marine Environmental Research is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105230 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 1 StartPage: N.PAG Subjects: – SubjectFull: Marine parks & reserves Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Species distribution Type: general – SubjectFull: Species Type: general – SubjectFull: Wildlife conservation Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Weinert, Michael – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mathis, Moritz – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kröncke, Ingrid – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Pohlmann, Thomas – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Reiss, Henning IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Text: Jan2021 Type: published Y: 2021 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 01411136 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 163 Titles: – TitleFull: Marine Environmental Research Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
