Historical maps confirm the accuracy of zero-inflated model predictions of ancient tree abundance in English wood-pastures.
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| Title: | Historical maps confirm the accuracy of zero-inflated model predictions of ancient tree abundance in English wood-pastures. |
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| Authors: | Nolan, Victoria1 victorianolan888@gmail.com, Reader, Tom1, Gilbert, Francis1, Atkinson, Nick2 |
| Source: | Journal of Applied Ecology. Nov2021, Vol. 58 Issue 11, p2661-2672. 12p. |
| Subjects: | Historical maps, Prediction models, Wood decay, Soil classification, Trees, Knowledge gap theory |
| Geographic Terms: | England |
| Abstract: | 1. Ancient trees have important ecological, historical and social connections, and are a key source of dead and decaying wood, a globally declining resource. Wood-pastures, which combine livestock grazing, open spaces and scattered trees, are significant reservoirs of ancient trees, yet information about their true abundance within wood-pastures is limited. England has extensive databases of both ancient trees and wood-pasture habitat, providing a unique opportunity for the first large-scale, national case study to address this knowledge gap. 2. We investigated the relationship between the abundance of ancient trees in a large sample of English wood-pastures (5,571) and various unique environmental, historical and anthropogenic predictors, to identify wood-pastures with high numbers of undiscovered ancient trees. A major challenge in many modelling studies is obtaining independent data for model verification: here we introduce a novel model verification step using series of historic maps with detailed records of trees to validate our model predictions. This desk-based method enables rapid verification of model predictions using completely independent data across a large geographical area, without the need for, or limitations associated with, extensive field surveys. 3. Historic map verification estimates correlated well with model predictions of tree abundance. Model predictions suggest there are ~101,400 undiscovered ancient trees in all wood-pastures in England, around 10 times the total current number of ancient tree records. Important predictors of ancient tree abundance included wood-pasture area, distance to several features including cities, commons, historic Royal forests and Tudor deer parks, and different types of soil and land classes. 4. Synthesis and applications. Historical maps and statistical models can be used in combination to produce accurate predictions of ancient tree abundance in wood-pastures, and inform future targeted surveys of wood-pasture habitat, with a focus on those deemed to have undiscovered ancient trees. This study provides support for improvements to conservation policy and protection measures for ancient trees and wood-pastures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Applied Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 154213689 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Historical maps confirm the accuracy of zero-inflated model predictions of ancient tree abundance in English wood-pastures. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nolan%2C+Victoria%22">Nolan, Victoria</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> victorianolan888@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Reader%2C+Tom%22">Reader, Tom</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gilbert%2C+Francis%22">Gilbert, Francis</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Atkinson%2C+Nick%22">Atkinson, Nick</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Applied+Ecology%22">Journal of Applied Ecology</searchLink>. Nov2021, Vol. 58 Issue 11, p2661-2672. 12p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Historical+maps%22">Historical maps</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prediction+models%22">Prediction models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wood+decay%22">Wood decay</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Soil+classification%22">Soil classification</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Trees%22">Trees</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Knowledge+gap+theory%22">Knowledge gap theory</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22England%22">England</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: 1. Ancient trees have important ecological, historical and social connections, and are a key source of dead and decaying wood, a globally declining resource. Wood-pastures, which combine livestock grazing, open spaces and scattered trees, are significant reservoirs of ancient trees, yet information about their true abundance within wood-pastures is limited. England has extensive databases of both ancient trees and wood-pasture habitat, providing a unique opportunity for the first large-scale, national case study to address this knowledge gap. 2. We investigated the relationship between the abundance of ancient trees in a large sample of English wood-pastures (5,571) and various unique environmental, historical and anthropogenic predictors, to identify wood-pastures with high numbers of undiscovered ancient trees. A major challenge in many modelling studies is obtaining independent data for model verification: here we introduce a novel model verification step using series of historic maps with detailed records of trees to validate our model predictions. This desk-based method enables rapid verification of model predictions using completely independent data across a large geographical area, without the need for, or limitations associated with, extensive field surveys. 3. Historic map verification estimates correlated well with model predictions of tree abundance. Model predictions suggest there are ~101,400 undiscovered ancient trees in all wood-pastures in England, around 10 times the total current number of ancient tree records. Important predictors of ancient tree abundance included wood-pasture area, distance to several features including cities, commons, historic Royal forests and Tudor deer parks, and different types of soil and land classes. 4. Synthesis and applications. Historical maps and statistical models can be used in combination to produce accurate predictions of ancient tree abundance in wood-pastures, and inform future targeted surveys of wood-pasture habitat, with a focus on those deemed to have undiscovered ancient trees. This study provides support for improvements to conservation policy and protection measures for ancient trees and wood-pastures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Applied Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1111/1365-2664.13996 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 12 StartPage: 2661 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Historical maps Type: general – SubjectFull: Prediction models Type: general – SubjectFull: Wood decay Type: general – SubjectFull: Soil classification Type: general – SubjectFull: Trees Type: general – SubjectFull: Knowledge gap theory Type: general – SubjectFull: England Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Historical maps confirm the accuracy of zero-inflated model predictions of ancient tree abundance in English wood-pastures. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Nolan, Victoria – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Reader, Tom – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Gilbert, Francis – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Atkinson, Nick IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 11 Text: Nov2021 Type: published Y: 2021 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00218901 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 58 – Type: issue Value: 11 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Applied Ecology Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
