Uso del Modelo de Holt-Winters como estrategia para la predicción de condiciones ambientales durante el proceso de almacenamiento del Cacao.
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| Title: | Uso del Modelo de Holt-Winters como estrategia para la predicción de condiciones ambientales durante el proceso de almacenamiento del Cacao. |
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| Alternate Title: | Use of the Holt-Winters Model as a strategy for predicting environmental conditions during the cocoa storage process. |
| Authors: | VESGA FERREIRA, JUAN CARLOS1 juan.vesga@unad.edu.co, CONTRERAS HIGUERA, MARTHA FABIOLA1, VESGA BARRERA, JOSÉ ANTONIO2 |
| Source: | Revista EIA. jun2022, Vol. 19 Issue 38, p1-17. 17p. |
| Subjects: | Time series analysis, Mold control, Cacao beans, Grain storage, Humidity, Dew, Dew point, Cocoa |
| Abstract (English): | The project arises as a response to the business challenge presented to the University - Company - State Committee (CUUES) and the Research Results Transfer Office (OTRI), which expresses the need to have a technology-based system with the capacity to monitor and manage the cocoa traceability process during the storage and manufacture of chocolate. In view of the above, the objective of this article is to propose the use of the Holt-Winters model as a strategy to predict the behavior of environmental variables that could be present in the cocoa bean storage process, incorporating the use of techniques analysis supported in time series. According to the results obtained, the proposed model allowed predicting the behavior of temperature, relative humidity and dew temperature, as a strategy for the control of fungi and mold that could emerge in the grain during its storage. Additionally, the proposed model can be considered as a very important prediction tool during the cocoa traceability process, reaching adjustment levels higher than 0.9, accompanied by a very low standard error of estimation and with a confidence level of 95%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Spanish): | El proyecto surge como respuesta al reto empresarial expuesto ante el Comité Universidad - Empresa - Estado (CUUES) y la Oficina de Transferencia de Resultados de Investigación (OTRI), el cual expresa la necesidad de contar con un sistema de base tecnológica con capacidad de monitorear y gestionar el proceso de trazabilidad del cacao durante el almacenamiento y fabricación del chocolate. En vista de lo anterior, el objetivo del presente artículo consiste en proponer el uso del modelo del Holt-Winters como estrategia para predecir el comportamiento de variables ambientales que podrían estar presentes en el proceso de almacenamiento del grano de cacao, incorporando el uso de técnicas de análisis soportadas en Series de tiempo. Acorde a los resultados obtenidos, el modelo propuesto permitió predecir el comportamiento de la temperatura, humedad relativa y temperatura de rocío, como estrategia para el control de hongos y moho que podrían llegar a surgir en el grano durante su almacenamiento. Adicionalmente, el modelo propuesto puede ser considerado como una herramienta de predicción muy importante durante el proceso de trazabilidad del cacao, alcanzando niveles de ajuste superiores a 0,9, acompañados de un muy bajo error estándar de estimación y con un nivel de confianza del 95%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Revista EIA is the property of Escuela de Ingenieria de Antioquia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 158190689 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Uso del Modelo de Holt-Winters como estrategia para la predicción de condiciones ambientales durante el proceso de almacenamiento del Cacao. – Name: TitleAlt Label: Alternate Title Group: TiAlt Data: Use of the Holt-Winters Model as a strategy for predicting environmental conditions during the cocoa storage process. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22VESGA+FERREIRA%2C+JUAN+CARLOS%22">VESGA FERREIRA, JUAN CARLOS</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> juan.vesga@unad.edu.co</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22CONTRERAS+HIGUERA%2C+MARTHA+FABIOLA%22">CONTRERAS HIGUERA, MARTHA FABIOLA</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22VESGA+BARRERA%2C+JOSÉ+ANTONIO%22">VESGA BARRERA, JOSÉ ANTONIO</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Revista+EIA%22">Revista EIA</searchLink>. jun2022, Vol. 19 Issue 38, p1-17. 17p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Time+series+analysis%22">Time series analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mold+control%22">Mold control</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cacao+beans%22">Cacao beans</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grain+storage%22">Grain storage</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Humidity%22">Humidity</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Dew%22">Dew</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Dew+point%22">Dew point</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cocoa%22">Cocoa</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract (English) Group: Ab Data: The project arises as a response to the business challenge presented to the University - Company - State Committee (CUUES) and the Research Results Transfer Office (OTRI), which expresses the need to have a technology-based system with the capacity to monitor and manage the cocoa traceability process during the storage and manufacture of chocolate. In view of the above, the objective of this article is to propose the use of the Holt-Winters model as a strategy to predict the behavior of environmental variables that could be present in the cocoa bean storage process, incorporating the use of techniques analysis supported in time series. According to the results obtained, the proposed model allowed predicting the behavior of temperature, relative humidity and dew temperature, as a strategy for the control of fungi and mold that could emerge in the grain during its storage. Additionally, the proposed model can be considered as a very important prediction tool during the cocoa traceability process, reaching adjustment levels higher than 0.9, accompanied by a very low standard error of estimation and with a confidence level of 95%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract (Spanish) Group: Ab Data: El proyecto surge como respuesta al reto empresarial expuesto ante el Comité Universidad - Empresa - Estado (CUUES) y la Oficina de Transferencia de Resultados de Investigación (OTRI), el cual expresa la necesidad de contar con un sistema de base tecnológica con capacidad de monitorear y gestionar el proceso de trazabilidad del cacao durante el almacenamiento y fabricación del chocolate. En vista de lo anterior, el objetivo del presente artículo consiste en proponer el uso del modelo del Holt-Winters como estrategia para predecir el comportamiento de variables ambientales que podrían estar presentes en el proceso de almacenamiento del grano de cacao, incorporando el uso de técnicas de análisis soportadas en Series de tiempo. Acorde a los resultados obtenidos, el modelo propuesto permitió predecir el comportamiento de la temperatura, humedad relativa y temperatura de rocío, como estrategia para el control de hongos y moho que podrían llegar a surgir en el grano durante su almacenamiento. Adicionalmente, el modelo propuesto puede ser considerado como una herramienta de predicción muy importante durante el proceso de trazabilidad del cacao, alcanzando niveles de ajuste superiores a 0,9, acompañados de un muy bajo error estándar de estimación y con un nivel de confianza del 95%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Revista EIA is the property of Escuela de Ingenieria de Antioquia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.24050/reia.v19i38.1593 Languages: – Code: spa Text: Spanish PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 17 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Time series analysis Type: general – SubjectFull: Mold control Type: general – SubjectFull: Cacao beans Type: general – SubjectFull: Grain storage Type: general – SubjectFull: Humidity Type: general – SubjectFull: Dew Type: general – SubjectFull: Dew point Type: general – SubjectFull: Cocoa Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Uso del Modelo de Holt-Winters como estrategia para la predicción de condiciones ambientales durante el proceso de almacenamiento del Cacao. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: VESGA FERREIRA, JUAN CARLOS – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: CONTRERAS HIGUERA, MARTHA FABIOLA – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: VESGA BARRERA, JOSÉ ANTONIO IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 06 Text: jun2022 Type: published Y: 2022 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 17941237 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 19 – Type: issue Value: 38 Titles: – TitleFull: Revista EIA Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
