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Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies.

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Title: Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies.
Authors: Carrera, Jorge1 (AUTHOR), Montes-Rojas, Gabriel1 (AUTHOR) Gabriel.montes@fce.uba.ar, Toledo, Fernando1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Structural Change & Economic Dynamics. Mar2023, Vol. 64, p179-190. 12p.
Subjects: Terms of trade, Emerging markets, Commodity futures, Commodity exchanges, International trade, Panel analysis
Abstract: • We examine how global financial shocks affect emerging economies. • We study two channels: commodity terms of trade and financial spreads. • We estimate a two-equation dynamic panel data model for 33 of these economies during 1999.Q1-2020.Q4. • Sign depends on the external trade pattern, whether commodities net exporter or importer. We examine how negative shocks which affect global financial conditions spill over into EMDEs through a fall in commodity terms of trade and greater financial spread. We estimate a two-equation dynamic panel data model for 33 of these economies during 1999.Q1-2020.Q4 to identify the effect of changes in the global financial conditions on the terms of trade and financial spread of commodities in these countries. In the first round, we focus on the diffusion of external negative financial spillovers from the financial center (the US) to the financial periphery, and to terms of trade and financial spread of commodities, leaving aside the feedback which operates from the first variable to the second one. In the second round, we allow commodities terms of trade to exert feedback on financial spreads. We find that the sign of this relationship depends on the productive structure and external trade pattern but differs from that of commodity net exporters and commodity net importers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Structural Change & Economic Dynamics is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 161954362
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  Data: Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Carrera%2C+Jorge%22">Carrera, Jorge</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Montes-Rojas%2C+Gabriel%22">Montes-Rojas, Gabriel</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Gabriel.montes@fce.uba.ar</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Toledo%2C+Fernando%22">Toledo, Fernando</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Structural+Change+%26+Economic+Dynamics%22">Structural Change & Economic Dynamics</searchLink>. Mar2023, Vol. 64, p179-190. 12p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Terms+of+trade%22">Terms of trade</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Emerging+markets%22">Emerging markets</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Commodity+futures%22">Commodity futures</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Commodity+exchanges%22">Commodity exchanges</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22International+trade%22">International trade</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Panel+analysis%22">Panel analysis</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: • We examine how global financial shocks affect emerging economies. • We study two channels: commodity terms of trade and financial spreads. • We estimate a two-equation dynamic panel data model for 33 of these economies during 1999.Q1-2020.Q4. • Sign depends on the external trade pattern, whether commodities net exporter or importer. We examine how negative shocks which affect global financial conditions spill over into EMDEs through a fall in commodity terms of trade and greater financial spread. We estimate a two-equation dynamic panel data model for 33 of these economies during 1999.Q1-2020.Q4 to identify the effect of changes in the global financial conditions on the terms of trade and financial spread of commodities in these countries. In the first round, we focus on the diffusion of external negative financial spillovers from the financial center (the US) to the financial periphery, and to terms of trade and financial spread of commodities, leaving aside the feedback which operates from the first variable to the second one. In the second round, we allow commodities terms of trade to exert feedback on financial spreads. We find that the sign of this relationship depends on the productive structure and external trade pattern but differs from that of commodity net exporters and commodity net importers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Structural Change & Economic Dynamics is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.strueco.2022.12.006
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 12
        StartPage: 179
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Terms of trade
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Emerging markets
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Commodity futures
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Commodity exchanges
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: International trade
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Panel analysis
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies.
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            NameFull: Carrera, Jorge
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            NameFull: Montes-Rojas, Gabriel
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            NameFull: Toledo, Fernando
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          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2023
              Type: published
              Y: 2023
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              Value: 64
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            – TitleFull: Structural Change & Economic Dynamics
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