Different Configurations of Cross-Equatorial Flows over the Indian Ocean–Western Maritime Continent and Their Implications for Improving Regional Climate Predictability.
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| Title: | Different Configurations of Cross-Equatorial Flows over the Indian Ocean–Western Maritime Continent and Their Implications for Improving Regional Climate Predictability. |
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| Authors: | Wang, Xudong1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Jin, Dachao2 (AUTHOR), Guan, Zhaoyong2 (AUTHOR) guanzy@nuist.edu.cn, Zhang, Yu4,5 (AUTHOR), Han, Qiuchang1,3 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Feb2024, Vol. 37 Issue 4, p1403-1414. 12p. |
| Subjects: | Monsoons, Meridional winds, El Niño, Ocean temperature, Phase transitions, Water vapor |
| Geographic Terms: | Indo-Pacific Region |
| Abstract: | Low-level cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) over the Indian Ocean–western Maritime Continent (IO-wMC) play a crucial role in transporting energy, mass, and water vapor into the Northern Hemisphere during the Asian summer monsoon season (May–September). Utilizing ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA5), we investigate three CEFs over the IO-wMC: the Somali-CEF, Bay of Bengal CEF (BoB-CEF), and South China Sea CEF (SCS-CEF). The statistical independence of the Somali-CEF and BoB-CEF implies distinct formation processes on the interannual time scale. To examine the interannual variability of CEFs, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of vertically integrated meridional winds from surface pressure to 850 hPa over the equatorial IO-wMC. The first EOF mode reveals a weakening of the Somali-CEF and strengthening of the BoB-CEF and SCS-CEF, which is associated with the concurrent summer Indian Ocean dipole and quasi-biennial phase transition of El Niño events. The second EOF is related to the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode that often emerges in post–El Niño summers. Despite the IPOC's influence on meridional winds over the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean, three CEFs are uncorrelated with the EOF2. On the other hand, the Somali-CEF and BoB-CEF are significantly weakened in the EOF3. The EOF3 is an ENSO-unrelated internal IPOC mode. We further use a multilinear regression model based on preceding sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indo-Pacific and EOF3 to predict regional climate anomalies and compare the prediction skill with the SST-based models. Our results suggest that adding EOF2- and EOF3-related variability to the prediction model can improve Asian summer monsoon predictability. Significance Statement: This study examines the interannual variability of low-level cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) over the Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent, crucial components of the Asian summer monsoon. We identify three CEFs and investigate their relationships with interannual sea surface temperature modes in the Indo-Pacific region. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of equatorial meridional wind reveal diverse CEF configurations and post–El Niño summer wind variability. Also, the EOFs distinguishes between El Niño and El Niño–unrelated equatorial meridional wind variability. Utilizing a multilinear regression model based on both preceding Indo-Pacific SST modes and configurations of CEFs, we demonstrate the potential to enhance regional climate predictions, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon and its associated climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 175345000 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Different Configurations of Cross-Equatorial Flows over the Indian Ocean–Western Maritime Continent and Their Implications for Improving Regional Climate Predictability. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wang%2C+Xudong%22">Wang, Xudong</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jin%2C+Dachao%22">Jin, Dachao</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Guan%2C+Zhaoyong%22">Guan, Zhaoyong</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> guanzy@nuist.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Yu%22">Zhang, Yu</searchLink><relatesTo>4,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Han%2C+Qiuchang%22">Han, Qiuchang</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Feb2024, Vol. 37 Issue 4, p1403-1414. 12p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Monsoons%22">Monsoons</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meridional+winds%22">Meridional winds</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22El+Niño%22">El Niño</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Phase+transitions%22">Phase transitions</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+vapor%22">Water vapor</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Indo-Pacific+Region%22">Indo-Pacific Region</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Low-level cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) over the Indian Ocean–western Maritime Continent (IO-wMC) play a crucial role in transporting energy, mass, and water vapor into the Northern Hemisphere during the Asian summer monsoon season (May–September). Utilizing ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA5), we investigate three CEFs over the IO-wMC: the Somali-CEF, Bay of Bengal CEF (BoB-CEF), and South China Sea CEF (SCS-CEF). The statistical independence of the Somali-CEF and BoB-CEF implies distinct formation processes on the interannual time scale. To examine the interannual variability of CEFs, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of vertically integrated meridional winds from surface pressure to 850 hPa over the equatorial IO-wMC. The first EOF mode reveals a weakening of the Somali-CEF and strengthening of the BoB-CEF and SCS-CEF, which is associated with the concurrent summer Indian Ocean dipole and quasi-biennial phase transition of El Niño events. The second EOF is related to the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode that often emerges in post–El Niño summers. Despite the IPOC's influence on meridional winds over the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean, three CEFs are uncorrelated with the EOF2. On the other hand, the Somali-CEF and BoB-CEF are significantly weakened in the EOF3. The EOF3 is an ENSO-unrelated internal IPOC mode. We further use a multilinear regression model based on preceding sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indo-Pacific and EOF3 to predict regional climate anomalies and compare the prediction skill with the SST-based models. Our results suggest that adding EOF2- and EOF3-related variability to the prediction model can improve Asian summer monsoon predictability. Significance Statement: This study examines the interannual variability of low-level cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) over the Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent, crucial components of the Asian summer monsoon. We identify three CEFs and investigate their relationships with interannual sea surface temperature modes in the Indo-Pacific region. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of equatorial meridional wind reveal diverse CEF configurations and post–El Niño summer wind variability. Also, the EOFs distinguishes between El Niño and El Niño–unrelated equatorial meridional wind variability. Utilizing a multilinear regression model based on both preceding Indo-Pacific SST modes and configurations of CEFs, we demonstrate the potential to enhance regional climate predictions, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon and its associated climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0231.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 12 StartPage: 1403 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Monsoons Type: general – SubjectFull: Meridional winds Type: general – SubjectFull: El Niño Type: general – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature Type: general – SubjectFull: Phase transitions Type: general – SubjectFull: Water vapor Type: general – SubjectFull: Indo-Pacific Region Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Different Configurations of Cross-Equatorial Flows over the Indian Ocean–Western Maritime Continent and Their Implications for Improving Regional Climate Predictability. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Wang, Xudong – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jin, Dachao – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Guan, Zhaoyong – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhang, Yu – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Han, Qiuchang IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 15 M: 02 Text: Feb2024 Type: published Y: 2024 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08948755 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 37 – Type: issue Value: 4 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Climate Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
