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Preparing municipal water system planning for a changing climate: Integrating climate‐sensitive demand estimates.

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Title: Preparing municipal water system planning for a changing climate: Integrating climate‐sensitive demand estimates.
Authors: Johnson, Ryan C.1 (AUTHOR) rjohnson18@ua.edu, Burian, Steven J.2 (AUTHOR), Halgren, James1 (AUTHOR), Irons, Trevor3 (AUTHOR), Baur, Emily4 (AUTHOR), Aziz, Danyal2 (AUTHOR), Hassan, Daniyal4 (AUTHOR), Li, Jiada5 (AUTHOR), Kirkham, Tracie6 (AUTHOR), Stewart, Jessie6 (AUTHOR), Briefer, Laura6 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of the American Water Resources Association. Feb2024, Vol. 60 Issue 1, p211-225. 15p.
Subjects: Municipal water supply, Supply & demand, Demand forecasting, Water supply, Seasons
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: Seasonality and a changing climate exert strong influences on supply and demand in the western United States, challenging municipal water system (MWS) management. Although supply and demand exhibit characteristics of nonstationarity, the commonly used econometric‐based models to estimate demands discount the influences of climate variability and trends in seasonal MWS vulnerability assessments. Given the projected impacts of climate change on water resources, we use the documented performance of a real‐world MWS with a calibrated systems model to investigate how demands modeled with and without the influences of climate impact system vulnerability indicators—determined by the exceedance of historical daily mean imported water—for MWS planning guidance. Neglecting climatic influences on MWS demands, the model overestimates the volume of imported water by up to 50% and misclassifies vulnerabilities during supply‐limiting conditions. The climate‐sensitive demand estimates reduced model error (i.e., <3% error) and correctly categorized vulnerabilities. Moreover, the MWS exhibited an average threefold greater sensitivity to percent changes in demand relative to percent changes in supply. The sensitivity to variances in demand emphasizes the need to account for factors influencing supply and demand when investigating the impacts of a changing climate, suggesting future research to examine the coupled influences of modeled supply and demand accuracy on MWS performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of the American Water Resources Association is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 175502355
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Data: Preparing municipal water system planning for a changing climate: Integrating climate‐sensitive demand estimates.
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Johnson%2C+Ryan+C%2E%22&quot;&gt;Johnson, Ryan C.&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;1&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;i&gt; rjohnson18@ua.edu&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Burian%2C+Steven+J%2E%22&quot;&gt;Burian, Steven J.&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;2&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Halgren%2C+James%22&quot;&gt;Halgren, James&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;1&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Irons%2C+Trevor%22&quot;&gt;Irons, Trevor&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;3&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Baur%2C+Emily%22&quot;&gt;Baur, Emily&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;4&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Aziz%2C+Danyal%22&quot;&gt;Aziz, Danyal&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;2&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Hassan%2C+Daniyal%22&quot;&gt;Hassan, Daniyal&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;4&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Li%2C+Jiada%22&quot;&gt;Li, Jiada&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;5&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Kirkham%2C+Tracie%22&quot;&gt;Kirkham, Tracie&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;6&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Stewart%2C+Jessie%22&quot;&gt;Stewart, Jessie&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;6&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Briefer%2C+Laura%22&quot;&gt;Briefer, Laura&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;6&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;JN&quot; term=&quot;%22Journal+of+the+American+Water+Resources+Association%22&quot;&gt;Journal of the American Water Resources Association&lt;/searchLink&gt;. Feb2024, Vol. 60 Issue 1, p211-225. 15p.
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Municipal+water+supply%22&quot;&gt;Municipal water supply&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Supply+%26+demand%22&quot;&gt;Supply &amp; demand&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Demand+forecasting%22&quot;&gt;Demand forecasting&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Water+supply%22&quot;&gt;Water supply&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Seasons%22&quot;&gt;Seasons&lt;/searchLink&gt;
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– Name: Abstract
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  Data: Seasonality and a changing climate exert strong influences on supply and demand in the western United States, challenging municipal water system (MWS) management. Although supply and demand exhibit characteristics of nonstationarity, the commonly used econometric‐based models to estimate demands discount the influences of climate variability and trends in seasonal MWS vulnerability assessments. Given the projected impacts of climate change on water resources, we use the documented performance of a real‐world MWS with a calibrated systems model to investigate how demands modeled with and without the influences of climate impact system vulnerability indicators—determined by the exceedance of historical daily mean imported water—for MWS planning guidance. Neglecting climatic influences on MWS demands, the model overestimates the volume of imported water by up to 50% and misclassifies vulnerabilities during supply‐limiting conditions. The climate‐sensitive demand estimates reduced model error (i.e., &lt;3% error) and correctly categorized vulnerabilities. Moreover, the MWS exhibited an average threefold greater sensitivity to percent changes in demand relative to percent changes in supply. The sensitivity to variances in demand emphasizes the need to account for factors influencing supply and demand when investigating the impacts of a changing climate, suggesting future research to examine the coupled influences of modeled supply and demand accuracy on MWS performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: &lt;i&gt;Copyright of Journal of the American Water Resources Association is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder&#39;s express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.&lt;/i&gt; (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1111/1752-1688.13165
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 15
        StartPage: 211
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Municipal water supply
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Supply & demand
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Demand forecasting
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      – SubjectFull: Water supply
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      – SubjectFull: Seasons
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
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      – TitleFull: Preparing municipal water system planning for a changing climate: Integrating climate‐sensitive demand estimates.
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              Text: Feb2024
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              Y: 2024
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