Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth‐Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid‐Permian synapsid extinctions.

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Title: Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth‐Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid‐Permian synapsid extinctions.
Authors: Didier, Gilles1 (AUTHOR) gilles.didier@umontpellier.fr, Laurin, Michel2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Cladistics. Jun2024, Vol. 40 Issue 3, p282-306. 25p.
Subjects: Mass extinctions, Fossilization, Forest density, Fossils, Biodiversity
Abstract: In the last decade, the Fossilized Birth–Death (FBD) process has yielded interesting clues about the evolution of biodiversity through time. To facilitate such studies, we extend our method to compute the probability density of phylogenetic trees of extant and extinct taxa in which the only temporal information is provided by the fossil ages (i.e. without the divergence times) in order to deal with the piecewise constant FBD process, known as the "skyline FBD", which allows rates to change between pre‐defined time intervals, as well as modelling extinction events at the bounds of these intervals. We develop approaches based on this method to assess hypotheses about the diversification process and to answer questions such as "Does a mass extinction occur at this time?" or "Is there a change in the fossilization rate between two given periods?". Our software can also yield Bayesian and maximum‐likelihood estimates of the parameters of the skyline FBD model under various constraints. These approaches are applied to a simulated dataset in order to test their ability to answer the questions above. Finally, we study an updated dataset of Permo‐Carboniferous synapsids to get additional insights into the dynamics of biodiversity change in three clades (Ophiacodontidae, Edaphosauridae and Sphenacodontidae) in the Pennsylvanian (Late Carboniferous) and Cisuralian (Early Permian), and to assess support for end‐Sakmarian (or Artinskian) and end‐Cisuralian mass extinction events discussed in previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Cladistics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth‐Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid‐Permian synapsid extinctions.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mass+extinctions%22">Mass extinctions</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fossilization%22">Fossilization</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forest+density%22">Forest density</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fossils%22">Fossils</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Biodiversity%22">Biodiversity</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: In the last decade, the Fossilized Birth–Death (FBD) process has yielded interesting clues about the evolution of biodiversity through time. To facilitate such studies, we extend our method to compute the probability density of phylogenetic trees of extant and extinct taxa in which the only temporal information is provided by the fossil ages (i.e. without the divergence times) in order to deal with the piecewise constant FBD process, known as the "skyline FBD", which allows rates to change between pre‐defined time intervals, as well as modelling extinction events at the bounds of these intervals. We develop approaches based on this method to assess hypotheses about the diversification process and to answer questions such as "Does a mass extinction occur at this time?" or "Is there a change in the fossilization rate between two given periods?". Our software can also yield Bayesian and maximum‐likelihood estimates of the parameters of the skyline FBD model under various constraints. These approaches are applied to a simulated dataset in order to test their ability to answer the questions above. Finally, we study an updated dataset of Permo‐Carboniferous synapsids to get additional insights into the dynamics of biodiversity change in three clades (Ophiacodontidae, Edaphosauridae and Sphenacodontidae) in the Pennsylvanian (Late Carboniferous) and Cisuralian (Early Permian), and to assess support for end‐Sakmarian (or Artinskian) and end‐Cisuralian mass extinction events discussed in previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Cladistics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1111/cla.12577
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 25
        StartPage: 282
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Mass extinctions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fossilization
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Forest density
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fossils
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Biodiversity
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth‐Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid‐Permian synapsid extinctions.
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            NameFull: Didier, Gilles
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          Name:
            NameFull: Laurin, Michel
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          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 06
              Text: Jun2024
              Type: published
              Y: 2024
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              Value: 07483007
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              Value: 40
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              Value: 3
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            – TitleFull: Cladistics
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