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Out of the frying pan into the fire: Predicted warming in alpine streams suggests hidden consequences for aquatic ectotherms.

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Title: Out of the frying pan into the fire: Predicted warming in alpine streams suggests hidden consequences for aquatic ectotherms.
Authors: Shackleton, M. E.1,2,3 (AUTHOR) m.shackleton@latrobe.edu.au, Siebers, A. R.1,3 (AUTHOR), Suter, P. J.1,3 (AUTHOR), Lines, O.1,3 (AUTHOR), Holland, A.1,2 (AUTHOR), Morgan, J. W.1,2 (AUTHOR), Silvester, E.1,2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Global Change Biology. Jun2024, Vol. 30 Issue 6, p1-13. 13p.
Subjects: Global warming, Skillets, Mountain ecology, Water temperature, Atmospheric temperature, Cold-blooded animals
Abstract: Thermal regimes of aquatic ecosystems are predicted to change as climate warming progresses over the next century, with high‐latitude and high‐elevation regions predicted to be particularly impacted. Here, we have modelled alpine stream water temperatures from air temperature data and used future predicted air temperature trajectories (representative concentration pathway [rcp] 4.5 and 8.5) to predict future water temperatures. Modelled stream water temperatures have been used to calculate cumulative degree days (CDDs) under current and future climate conditions. These calculations show that degree days will accumulate more rapidly under the future climate scenarios, and with a stronger effect for higher CDD values (e.g., rcp 4.5: 18–28 days earlier [CDD = 500]; 42–55 days earlier [CDD = 2000]). Changes to the time to achieve specific CDDs may have profound and unexpected consequences for alpine ecosystems. Our calculations show that while the effect of increased CDDs may be relatively small for organisms that emerge in spring–summer, the effects for organisms emerging in late summer–autumn may be substantial. For these organisms, the air temperatures experienced upon emergence could reach 9°C (rcp 4.5) or 12°C (rcp 8.5) higher than under current climate conditions, likely impacting on the metabolism of adults, the availability of resources, including food and suitable oviposition habitat, and reproductive success. Given that the movement of aquatic fauna to the terrestrial environment represents an important flux of energy and nutrients, differential changes in the time periods to achieve CDDs for aquatic and terrestrial fauna may de‐couple existing predator–prey interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Global Change Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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PubType: Academic Journal
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  Data: Out of the frying pan into the fire: Predicted warming in alpine streams suggests hidden consequences for aquatic ectotherms.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shackleton%2C+M%2E+E%2E%22">Shackleton, M. E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> m.shackleton@latrobe.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Siebers%2C+A%2E+R%2E%22">Siebers, A. R.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Suter%2C+P%2E+J%2E%22">Suter, P. J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lines%2C+O%2E%22">Lines, O.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Holland%2C+A%2E%22">Holland, A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Morgan%2C+J%2E+W%2E%22">Morgan, J. W.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Silvester%2C+E%2E%22">Silvester, E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Global+Change+Biology%22">Global Change Biology</searchLink>. Jun2024, Vol. 30 Issue 6, p1-13. 13p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Global+warming%22">Global warming</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Skillets%22">Skillets</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mountain+ecology%22">Mountain ecology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+temperature%22">Water temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+temperature%22">Atmospheric temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cold-blooded+animals%22">Cold-blooded animals</searchLink>
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  Data: Thermal regimes of aquatic ecosystems are predicted to change as climate warming progresses over the next century, with high‐latitude and high‐elevation regions predicted to be particularly impacted. Here, we have modelled alpine stream water temperatures from air temperature data and used future predicted air temperature trajectories (representative concentration pathway [rcp] 4.5 and 8.5) to predict future water temperatures. Modelled stream water temperatures have been used to calculate cumulative degree days (CDDs) under current and future climate conditions. These calculations show that degree days will accumulate more rapidly under the future climate scenarios, and with a stronger effect for higher CDD values (e.g., rcp 4.5: 18–28 days earlier [CDD = 500]; 42–55 days earlier [CDD = 2000]). Changes to the time to achieve specific CDDs may have profound and unexpected consequences for alpine ecosystems. Our calculations show that while the effect of increased CDDs may be relatively small for organisms that emerge in spring–summer, the effects for organisms emerging in late summer–autumn may be substantial. For these organisms, the air temperatures experienced upon emergence could reach 9°C (rcp 4.5) or 12°C (rcp 8.5) higher than under current climate conditions, likely impacting on the metabolism of adults, the availability of resources, including food and suitable oviposition habitat, and reproductive success. Given that the movement of aquatic fauna to the terrestrial environment represents an important flux of energy and nutrients, differential changes in the time periods to achieve CDDs for aquatic and terrestrial fauna may de‐couple existing predator–prey interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Label:
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Global Change Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – SubjectFull: Skillets
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      – SubjectFull: Mountain ecology
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      – SubjectFull: Water temperature
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      – SubjectFull: Cold-blooded animals
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      – TitleFull: Out of the frying pan into the fire: Predicted warming in alpine streams suggests hidden consequences for aquatic ectotherms.
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              Text: Jun2024
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              Y: 2024
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