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When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

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Title: When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?
Authors: Burleyson, Casey D.1 (AUTHOR) casey.burleyson@pnnl.gov, Khan, Zarrar1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Kulshresta, Misha1,4,5 (AUTHOR), Voisin, Nathalie1,5 (AUTHOR), Zhao, Mengqi1 (AUTHOR), Rice, Jennie S.1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Applied Energy. Feb2025, Vol. 380, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Electric power consumption, Energy policy, Climate change mitigation, Atmospheric models, Time perspective
Abstract: Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10–40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. We use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25–30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making. • Quantified when uncertain scenarios of projected loads start to diverge. • Socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years. • Climate/policy scenario matters within 25–30 years. • Climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Applied Energy is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 181938814
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PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Burleyson%2C+Casey+D%2E%22">Burleyson, Casey D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> casey.burleyson@pnnl.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Khan%2C+Zarrar%22">Khan, Zarrar</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kulshresta%2C+Misha%22">Kulshresta, Misha</searchLink><relatesTo>1,4,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Voisin%2C+Nathalie%22">Voisin, Nathalie</searchLink><relatesTo>1,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhao%2C+Mengqi%22">Zhao, Mengqi</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rice%2C+Jennie+S%2E%22">Rice, Jennie S.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Applied+Energy%22">Applied Energy</searchLink>. Feb2025, Vol. 380, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electric+power+consumption%22">Electric power consumption</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+policy%22">Energy policy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+mitigation%22">Climate change mitigation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Time+perspective%22">Time perspective</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10–40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. We use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25–30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making. • Quantified when uncertain scenarios of projected loads start to diverge. • Socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years. • Climate/policy scenario matters within 25–30 years. • Climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Applied Energy is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=181938814
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        Value: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124948
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Energy policy
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      – SubjectFull: Climate change mitigation
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      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
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      – SubjectFull: Time perspective
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      – TitleFull: When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?
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              Text: Feb2025
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