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Decreased likelihood of schooling as a consequence of tropical cyclones: Evidence from 13 low- and middle-income countries.

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Title: Decreased likelihood of schooling as a consequence of tropical cyclones: Evidence from 13 low- and middle-income countries.
Authors: Renzhi Jing1,2,3 rjing@stanford.edu, Heft-Neal, Sam4, Zetianyu Wang5, Jie Chen6, Minghao Qiu7,8, Opper, Isaac M.5, Wagner, Zachary5,9, Bendavid, Eran1,2,3 ebd@stanford.edu
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 5/6/2025, Vol. 122 Issue 18, p1-9. 29p.
Subjects: Tropical cyclones, Climate change education, Climate extremes, Natural disasters, Middle-income countries
Abstract: Increasing educational attainment is one of the most important and effective strategies for health and economic improvements. The extent to which extreme climate events disrupt education, resulting in reduced educational attainment, remains understudied. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) may be uniquely vulnerable to losing schooling after disasters due to the poor physical condition of schools and the lack of resources to mitigate unexpected household shocks. Our analysis assesses this overlooked social cost of tropical cyclones on schooling attainment. We study the education records of nearly 5.4 million individuals living in 13 LMICs that experienced tropical cyclones between 1954 and 2010. By comparing individuals living in the same locations but with different exposure levels, we estimate the change in the likelihood that a preschool-age child exposed to tropical cyclone received no schooling. We find that exposure during preschool age is associated with a 0.5 percentage point increase in the likelihood of never attending schooling (2.5% above baseline), with larger effects (up to 8.8% increase) from stronger storms. These effects are more pronounced among girls and are greater in areas less adapted to tropical cyclones. Between 2000 and 2020, we estimate that 79,000 children in the 13 study countries did not start school due to tropical cyclones, and, across all affected students, tropical cyclones resulted in a total loss of 1.1 My of school. These impacts, identified among some of the world's poorest populations, may grow in importance as exposure to severe tropical cyclones is projected to increase with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America is the property of National Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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PubType: Academic Journal
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  Data: Decreased likelihood of schooling as a consequence of tropical cyclones: Evidence from 13 low- and middle-income countries.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Renzhi+Jing%22">Renzhi Jing</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo><i> rjing@stanford.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Heft-Neal%2C+Sam%22">Heft-Neal, Sam</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zetianyu+Wang%22">Zetianyu Wang</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jie+Chen%22">Jie Chen</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Minghao+Qiu%22">Minghao Qiu</searchLink><relatesTo>7,8</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Opper%2C+Isaac+M%2E%22">Opper, Isaac M.</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wagner%2C+Zachary%22">Wagner, Zachary</searchLink><relatesTo>5,9</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bendavid%2C+Eran%22">Bendavid, Eran</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo><i> ebd@stanford.edu</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Proceedings+of+the+National+Academy+of+Sciences+of+the+United+States+of+America%22">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</searchLink>. 5/6/2025, Vol. 122 Issue 18, p1-9. 29p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+cyclones%22">Tropical cyclones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+education%22">Climate change education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+extremes%22">Climate extremes</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Natural+disasters%22">Natural disasters</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Middle-income+countries%22">Middle-income countries</searchLink>
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  Data: Increasing educational attainment is one of the most important and effective strategies for health and economic improvements. The extent to which extreme climate events disrupt education, resulting in reduced educational attainment, remains understudied. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) may be uniquely vulnerable to losing schooling after disasters due to the poor physical condition of schools and the lack of resources to mitigate unexpected household shocks. Our analysis assesses this overlooked social cost of tropical cyclones on schooling attainment. We study the education records of nearly 5.4 million individuals living in 13 LMICs that experienced tropical cyclones between 1954 and 2010. By comparing individuals living in the same locations but with different exposure levels, we estimate the change in the likelihood that a preschool-age child exposed to tropical cyclone received no schooling. We find that exposure during preschool age is associated with a 0.5 percentage point increase in the likelihood of never attending schooling (2.5% above baseline), with larger effects (up to 8.8% increase) from stronger storms. These effects are more pronounced among girls and are greater in areas less adapted to tropical cyclones. Between 2000 and 2020, we estimate that 79,000 children in the 13 study countries did not start school due to tropical cyclones, and, across all affected students, tropical cyclones resulted in a total loss of 1.1 My of school. These impacts, identified among some of the world's poorest populations, may grow in importance as exposure to severe tropical cyclones is projected to increase with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America is the property of National Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1073/pnas.2413962122
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        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change education
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      – SubjectFull: Climate extremes
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              Text: 5/6/2025
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