Evaluating the performance of an ensemble forecast system in predicting Loop Current Eddy separation in the Gulf of Mexico.
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| Title: | Evaluating the performance of an ensemble forecast system in predicting Loop Current Eddy separation in the Gulf of Mexico. |
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| Authors: | Thoppil, Prasad G.1 (AUTHOR) prasad.g.thoppil.civ@us.navy.mil, Rowley, Clark D.1 (AUTHOR) clark.d.rowley.civ@us.navy.mil, Hogan, Patrick J.2 (AUTHOR) patrick.hogan@noaa.gov, Stear, James3 (AUTHOR) James.Stear@chevron.com |
| Source: | Progress in Oceanography. Sep2025, Vol. 237, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. |
| Subjects: | Loop Current, Mesoscale eddies, Cyclone forecasting, Ocean currents, Forecasting, Ensemble learning, Gulf Stream |
| Geographic Terms: | Gulf of Mexico |
| Abstract: | • 32-member ensemble forecast system predicts LC/LCE separation 7–13 weeks in advance. • Forecast captures LC extension, LCE separation (Jan 27), and near-splitting of LCE (Mar 2020). • Two key drivers of LC/LCE changes: (a) LC-cyclone interaction triggers LCE separation; (b) LCE-cyclone interaction causes near-splitting. • Surface-subsurface cyclone coupling amplifies LC/LCE changes, highlighting vertical coherence in mesoscale variability. • Findings supported by drifters, current meters, SSH, and analyses, reinforcing forecast reliability. Forecasting mesoscale variability, such as the Loop Current (LC) growth and Loop Current Eddy (LCE) shedding in the Gulf of Mexico, poses challenges due to the large uncertainty in initial conditions and the development of non-linear instabilities from LC-cyclone interactions, which are crucial for LC/LCE separation. An ensemble forecast system may account for this uncertainty and filter out unconstrained scales and thereby extend the predictability of the mesoscale variability. A 32-member ensemble forecast system is employed to investigate the predictability of LC/LCE separation, with a specific focus on the December 2019 – March 2020 period. The forecasts demonstrated predictability of LC/LCE separation out to 7 to 13 weeks. During this period, significant changes occurred in the LC. The LC transitioned from being an extended LC to LCE separation on January 27, 2020. Subsequently, in March 2020, the LCE deformed and nearly split into two separate eddies. Detailed analyses of individual forecasts during this timeframe revealed that these transformations were influenced by two main interactions: (a) the interaction between the LC and a cyclone along its eastern edge, which caused the LC/LCE separation, and (b) the interaction between the LCE and a cyclone along its northern side, leading to the potential splitting of the LCE. These interactions were further intensified by the coupling between surface and deep cyclones. The validity of these findings is supported by a variety of observations, including drifters, current meters, and sea surface height, as well as verifying analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Progress in Oceanography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 187139338 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Evaluating the performance of an ensemble forecast system in predicting Loop Current Eddy separation in the Gulf of Mexico. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thoppil%2C+Prasad+G%2E%22">Thoppil, Prasad G.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> prasad.g.thoppil.civ@us.navy.mil</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rowley%2C+Clark+D%2E%22">Rowley, Clark D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> clark.d.rowley.civ@us.navy.mil</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hogan%2C+Patrick+J%2E%22">Hogan, Patrick J.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> patrick.hogan@noaa.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stear%2C+James%22">Stear, James</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> James.Stear@chevron.com</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Progress+in+Oceanography%22">Progress in Oceanography</searchLink>. Sep2025, Vol. 237, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Loop+Current%22">Loop Current</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mesoscale+eddies%22">Mesoscale eddies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cyclone+forecasting%22">Cyclone forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+currents%22">Ocean currents</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forecasting%22">Forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ensemble+learning%22">Ensemble learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gulf+Stream%22">Gulf Stream</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gulf+of+Mexico%22">Gulf of Mexico</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: • 32-member ensemble forecast system predicts LC/LCE separation 7–13 weeks in advance. • Forecast captures LC extension, LCE separation (Jan 27), and near-splitting of LCE (Mar 2020). • Two key drivers of LC/LCE changes: (a) LC-cyclone interaction triggers LCE separation; (b) LCE-cyclone interaction causes near-splitting. • Surface-subsurface cyclone coupling amplifies LC/LCE changes, highlighting vertical coherence in mesoscale variability. • Findings supported by drifters, current meters, SSH, and analyses, reinforcing forecast reliability. Forecasting mesoscale variability, such as the Loop Current (LC) growth and Loop Current Eddy (LCE) shedding in the Gulf of Mexico, poses challenges due to the large uncertainty in initial conditions and the development of non-linear instabilities from LC-cyclone interactions, which are crucial for LC/LCE separation. An ensemble forecast system may account for this uncertainty and filter out unconstrained scales and thereby extend the predictability of the mesoscale variability. A 32-member ensemble forecast system is employed to investigate the predictability of LC/LCE separation, with a specific focus on the December 2019 – March 2020 period. The forecasts demonstrated predictability of LC/LCE separation out to 7 to 13 weeks. During this period, significant changes occurred in the LC. The LC transitioned from being an extended LC to LCE separation on January 27, 2020. Subsequently, in March 2020, the LCE deformed and nearly split into two separate eddies. Detailed analyses of individual forecasts during this timeframe revealed that these transformations were influenced by two main interactions: (a) the interaction between the LC and a cyclone along its eastern edge, which caused the LC/LCE separation, and (b) the interaction between the LCE and a cyclone along its northern side, leading to the potential splitting of the LCE. These interactions were further intensified by the coupling between surface and deep cyclones. The validity of these findings is supported by a variety of observations, including drifters, current meters, and sea surface height, as well as verifying analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Progress in Oceanography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103529 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 1 StartPage: N.PAG Subjects: – SubjectFull: Loop Current Type: general – SubjectFull: Mesoscale eddies Type: general – SubjectFull: Cyclone forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Ocean currents Type: general – SubjectFull: Forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Ensemble learning Type: general – SubjectFull: Gulf Stream Type: general – SubjectFull: Gulf of Mexico Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Evaluating the performance of an ensemble forecast system in predicting Loop Current Eddy separation in the Gulf of Mexico. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Thoppil, Prasad G. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Rowley, Clark D. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Hogan, Patrick J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Stear, James IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 09 Text: Sep2025 Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00796611 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 237 Titles: – TitleFull: Progress in Oceanography Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
