Tracking Lava Flow Cooling from Space: Implications for Erupted Volume Estimation and Cooling Mechanisms.

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Title: Tracking Lava Flow Cooling from Space: Implications for Erupted Volume Estimation and Cooling Mechanisms.
Authors: Aveni, Simone1,2 (AUTHOR) simonesalvatore.aveni@uniroma1.it, Ganci, Gaetana2,3 (AUTHOR), Harris, Andrew J. L.3,4 (AUTHOR), Coppola, Diego2,4,5 (AUTHOR)
Source: Remote Sensing. Aug2025, Vol. 17 Issue 15, p2543. 21p.
Subjects: Lava flows, Volcanism, Remote-sensing images, Volcanic eruptions, Cooling systems, Infrared radiation
Abstract: Accurate estimation of erupted lava volumes is essential for understanding volcanic processes, interpreting eruptive cycles, and assessing volcanic hazards. Traditional methods based on Mid-Infrared (MIR) satellite imagery require clear-sky conditions during eruptions and are prone to sensor saturation, limiting data availability. Here, we present an alternative approach based on the post-eruptive Thermal InfraRed (TIR) signal, using the recently proposed VRPTIR method to quantify radiative energy loss during lava flow cooling. We identify thermally anomalous pixels in VIIRS I5 scenes (11.45 µm, 375 m resolution) using the TIRVolcH algorithm, this allowing the detection of subtle thermal anomalies throughout the cooling phase, and retrieve lava flow area by fitting theoretical cooling curves to observed VRPTIR time series. Collating a dataset of 191 mafic eruptions that occurred between 2010 and 2025 at (i) Etna and Stromboli (Italy); (ii) Piton de la Fournaise (France); (iii) Bárðarbunga, Fagradalsfjall, and Sundhnúkagígar (Iceland); (iv) Kīlauea and Mauna Loa (United States); (v) Wolf, Fernandina, and Sierra Negra (Ecuador); (vi) Nyamuragira and Nyiragongo (DRC); (vii) Fogo (Cape Verde); and (viii) La Palma (Spain), we derive a new power-law equation describing mafic lava flow thickening as a function of time across five orders of magnitude (from 0.02 Mm3 to 5.5 km3). Finally, from knowledge of areas and episode durations, we estimate erupted volumes. The method is validated against 68 eruptions with known volumes, yielding high agreement (R2 = 0.947; ρ = 0.96; MAPE = 28.60%), a negligible bias (MPE = −0.85%), and uncertainties within ±50%. Application to the February-March 2025 Etna eruption further corroborates the robustness of our workflow, from which we estimate a bulk erupted volume of 4.23 ± 2.12 × 106 m3, in close agreement with preliminary estimates from independent data. Beyond volume estimation, we show that VRPTIR cooling curves follow a consistent decay pattern that aligns with established theoretical thermal models, indicating a stable conductive regime during the cooling stage. This scale-invariant pattern suggests that crustal insulation and heat transfer across a solidifying boundary govern the thermal evolution of cooling basaltic flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Tracking Lava Flow Cooling from Space: Implications for Erupted Volume Estimation and Cooling Mechanisms.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Lava+flows%22">Lava flows</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Volcanism%22">Volcanism</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Remote-sensing+images%22">Remote-sensing images</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Volcanic+eruptions%22">Volcanic eruptions</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cooling+systems%22">Cooling systems</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Infrared+radiation%22">Infrared radiation</searchLink>
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  Data: Accurate estimation of erupted lava volumes is essential for understanding volcanic processes, interpreting eruptive cycles, and assessing volcanic hazards. Traditional methods based on Mid-Infrared (MIR) satellite imagery require clear-sky conditions during eruptions and are prone to sensor saturation, limiting data availability. Here, we present an alternative approach based on the post-eruptive Thermal InfraRed (TIR) signal, using the recently proposed VRPTIR method to quantify radiative energy loss during lava flow cooling. We identify thermally anomalous pixels in VIIRS I5 scenes (11.45 µm, 375 m resolution) using the TIRVolcH algorithm, this allowing the detection of subtle thermal anomalies throughout the cooling phase, and retrieve lava flow area by fitting theoretical cooling curves to observed VRPTIR time series. Collating a dataset of 191 mafic eruptions that occurred between 2010 and 2025 at (i) Etna and Stromboli (Italy); (ii) Piton de la Fournaise (France); (iii) Bárðarbunga, Fagradalsfjall, and Sundhnúkagígar (Iceland); (iv) Kīlauea and Mauna Loa (United States); (v) Wolf, Fernandina, and Sierra Negra (Ecuador); (vi) Nyamuragira and Nyiragongo (DRC); (vii) Fogo (Cape Verde); and (viii) La Palma (Spain), we derive a new power-law equation describing mafic lava flow thickening as a function of time across five orders of magnitude (from 0.02 Mm3 to 5.5 km3). Finally, from knowledge of areas and episode durations, we estimate erupted volumes. The method is validated against 68 eruptions with known volumes, yielding high agreement (R2 = 0.947; ρ = 0.96; MAPE = 28.60%), a negligible bias (MPE = −0.85%), and uncertainties within ±50%. Application to the February-March 2025 Etna eruption further corroborates the robustness of our workflow, from which we estimate a bulk erupted volume of 4.23 ± 2.12 × 106 m3, in close agreement with preliminary estimates from independent data. Beyond volume estimation, we show that VRPTIR cooling curves follow a consistent decay pattern that aligns with established theoretical thermal models, indicating a stable conductive regime during the cooling stage. This scale-invariant pattern suggests that crustal insulation and heat transfer across a solidifying boundary govern the thermal evolution of cooling basaltic flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.3390/rs17152543
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 21
        StartPage: 2543
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Lava flows
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Volcanism
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Remote-sensing images
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Volcanic eruptions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cooling systems
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Infrared radiation
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Tracking Lava Flow Cooling from Space: Implications for Erupted Volume Estimation and Cooling Mechanisms.
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            NameFull: Aveni, Simone
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            NameFull: Ganci, Gaetana
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            NameFull: Harris, Andrew J. L.
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            – D: 01
              M: 08
              Text: Aug2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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