Performance Evaluation of Similarity Metrics in Transfer Learning for Building Heating Load Forecasting.

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Title: Performance Evaluation of Similarity Metrics in Transfer Learning for Building Heating Load Forecasting.
Authors: Bai, Di1 (AUTHOR), Ma, Shuo2 (AUTHOR) ms0305@tju.edu.cn, Ma, Hongting1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Energies (19961073). Sep2025, Vol. 18 Issue 17, p4678. 14p.
Subjects: Heating load, Forecasting, Heating & ventilation industry, Comparative studies, Energy consumption, Transfer of training
Abstract: Accurately predicting building heating and cooling loads is crucial for optimizing HVAC systems and enhancing energy efficiency. However, data-driven models often face overfitting issues due to scarce training data, a common challenge for new constructions or under data privacy constraints. Transfer learning (TL) offers a solution, but its effectiveness heavily depends on selecting an appropriate source domain through effective similarity measurement. This study systematically evaluates the performance of 20 prevalent similarity metrics in TL for building heating load forecasting to identify the most robust metrics for mitigating data scarcity. Experiments were conducted on data from 500 buildings, with seven distinct low-data target scenarios established for a single target building. The Relative Error Gap (REG) was employed to assess the efficacy of transfer learning facilitated by each metric. The results demonstrate that distance-based metrics, particularly Euclidean, normalized Euclidean, and Manhattan distances, consistently yielded lower REG values and higher stability across scenarios. In contrast, probabilistic measures such as the Bhattacharyya coefficient and Bray–Curtis similarity exhibited poorer and less stable performance. This research provides a validated guideline for selecting similarity metrics in TL applications for building energy forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Energies (19961073) is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Performance Evaluation of Similarity Metrics in Transfer Learning for Building Heating Load Forecasting.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energies+%2819961073%29%22">Energies (19961073)</searchLink>. Sep2025, Vol. 18 Issue 17, p4678. 14p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Heating+load%22">Heating load</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forecasting%22">Forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Heating+%26+ventilation+industry%22">Heating & ventilation industry</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Comparative+studies%22">Comparative studies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+consumption%22">Energy consumption</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Transfer+of+training%22">Transfer of training</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Accurately predicting building heating and cooling loads is crucial for optimizing HVAC systems and enhancing energy efficiency. However, data-driven models often face overfitting issues due to scarce training data, a common challenge for new constructions or under data privacy constraints. Transfer learning (TL) offers a solution, but its effectiveness heavily depends on selecting an appropriate source domain through effective similarity measurement. This study systematically evaluates the performance of 20 prevalent similarity metrics in TL for building heating load forecasting to identify the most robust metrics for mitigating data scarcity. Experiments were conducted on data from 500 buildings, with seven distinct low-data target scenarios established for a single target building. The Relative Error Gap (REG) was employed to assess the efficacy of transfer learning facilitated by each metric. The results demonstrate that distance-based metrics, particularly Euclidean, normalized Euclidean, and Manhattan distances, consistently yielded lower REG values and higher stability across scenarios. In contrast, probabilistic measures such as the Bhattacharyya coefficient and Bray–Curtis similarity exhibited poorer and less stable performance. This research provides a validated guideline for selecting similarity metrics in TL applications for building energy forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Energies (19961073) is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.3390/en18174678
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 14
        StartPage: 4678
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Heating load
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Forecasting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Heating & ventilation industry
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Comparative studies
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy consumption
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Transfer of training
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Performance Evaluation of Similarity Metrics in Transfer Learning for Building Heating Load Forecasting.
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            NameFull: Bai, Di
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            NameFull: Ma, Shuo
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            NameFull: Ma, Hongting
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            – D: 01
              M: 09
              Text: Sep2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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            – TitleFull: Energies (19961073)
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