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Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit.

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Title: Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit.
Authors: Leite, Maria C.A.1 (AUTHOR) almeidamaria@uniovi.es, Agusto, Folashade B.2,3 (AUTHOR), Chen-Charpentier, Benito4 (AUTHOR), Owusu-Ansah, Frank5 (AUTHOR), Domfeh, Owusu5 (AUTHOR)
Source: Ecological Modelling. Dec2025, Vol. 510, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Cacao, Optimal control theory, Mealybugs, Mathematical models, Agricultural administration, Business revenue, Seedlings, Plant viruses
Geographic Terms: West Africa
Abstract: Cacao production in West Africa is being endangered by the cacao swollen shoot disease. The virus that causes the disease is spread by mealybugs. A mild strain of the virus can be used to inoculate susceptible (healthy) seedlings, thus reducing impacts of the closely related severe virus on such trees, which may also reduce spread of the disease. In the present study, we developed a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations with an age structure that models the temporal dynamics of susceptible, inoculated, and severely infected trees and their interaction with mealybugs. Optimal control approaches integrated with this model were employed to identify the most effective strategy for maximizing the economic net benefit for farmers by adjusting the ratio of susceptible to inoculated seedlings utilized to replace severely infected trees. Two scenarios that reflected different strategies for cutting and replacing infected trees were considered. Numerical simulations using real data were performed. Based on model assumptions and control strategies studied, the optimal strategy was to establish a farm with some inoculated seedlings, remove only severely infected trees from the field, and replace them with inoculated seedlings for approximately 10 years and then with the susceptible seedlings. Further study employing models that incorporate additional processes and extended data sets is essential to assess the effectiveness of this strategy. • A new age-structure ODE model for CSSV infection was developed. • Real world data was used to optimize net economic benefit. • For optimal benefit establish a farm with some inoculated seedlings. • Replace infected trees with inoculated seedlings for about 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Ecological Modelling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
FullText Text:
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 188597621
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Data: Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cacao%22">Cacao</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Optimal+control+theory%22">Optimal control theory</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mealybugs%22">Mealybugs</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematical+models%22">Mathematical models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Agricultural+administration%22">Agricultural administration</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Business+revenue%22">Business revenue</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Seedlings%22">Seedlings</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Plant+viruses%22">Plant viruses</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22West+Africa%22">West Africa</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Cacao production in West Africa is being endangered by the cacao swollen shoot disease. The virus that causes the disease is spread by mealybugs. A mild strain of the virus can be used to inoculate susceptible (healthy) seedlings, thus reducing impacts of the closely related severe virus on such trees, which may also reduce spread of the disease. In the present study, we developed a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations with an age structure that models the temporal dynamics of susceptible, inoculated, and severely infected trees and their interaction with mealybugs. Optimal control approaches integrated with this model were employed to identify the most effective strategy for maximizing the economic net benefit for farmers by adjusting the ratio of susceptible to inoculated seedlings utilized to replace severely infected trees. Two scenarios that reflected different strategies for cutting and replacing infected trees were considered. Numerical simulations using real data were performed. Based on model assumptions and control strategies studied, the optimal strategy was to establish a farm with some inoculated seedlings, remove only severely infected trees from the field, and replace them with inoculated seedlings for approximately 10 years and then with the susceptible seedlings. Further study employing models that incorporate additional processes and extended data sets is essential to assess the effectiveness of this strategy. • A new age-structure ODE model for CSSV infection was developed. • Real world data was used to optimize net economic benefit. • For optimal benefit establish a farm with some inoculated seedlings. • Replace infected trees with inoculated seedlings for about 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Ecological Modelling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111284
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 1
        StartPage: N.PAG
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Cacao
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Optimal control theory
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mealybugs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mathematical models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Agricultural administration
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Business revenue
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Seedlings
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Plant viruses
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: West Africa
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Optimal control strategies to curtail cacao swollen-shoot virus infection and maximize net economic benefit.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
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      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Leite, Maria C.A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Agusto, Folashade B.
      – PersonEntity:
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            NameFull: Chen-Charpentier, Benito
      – PersonEntity:
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            NameFull: Owusu-Ansah, Frank
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            NameFull: Domfeh, Owusu
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          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 12
              Text: Dec2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 03043800
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            – Type: volume
              Value: 510
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Ecological Modelling
              Type: main
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