Cognitive reflection, visuospatial ability, and other measures as predictors of Bayesian reasoning.
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| Title: | Cognitive reflection, visuospatial ability, and other measures as predictors of Bayesian reasoning. |
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| Authors: | Brase, Gary L.1 (AUTHOR) gbrase@ksu.edu |
| Source: | Thinking & Reasoning. Nov2025, Vol. 31 Issue 4, p529-545. 17p. |
| Subjects: | Spatial ability, Cognitive ability, Statistical literacy, Individual differences, Pattern perception, Inferential statistics, Critical thinking |
| Abstract: | Many individual difference variables predict Bayesian reasoning performance, including cognitive reflection (thoughtful engagement with a problem rather than intuitive responding). The cognitive reflection test (CRT), though, is interdependent with numerical literacy. Two non-mathematics versions of this test (CRTverbal) are integrated and evaluated here, concurrent with other individual difference measures, as predictors of Bayesian reasoning performance. Two studies found CRTverbal appears to measure a fairly unitary underlying construct that is correlated with Bayesian reasoning performance. However, all other measures were also correlated with Bayesian reasoning, as well as generally with each other (including numerical literacy correlating with CRTverbal). Stepwise regressions found that Bayesian reasoning was best predicted by visuospatial ability and sets reasoning ability, excluding numeracy, working memory (Experiment 1), and pattern extrapolation abilities (Experiment 2). Although cognitive reflection remains a predictor of some utility, these positive manifold patterns of results suggest a broader cognitive ability may be generating these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Abstract: | Many individual difference variables predict Bayesian reasoning performance, including cognitive reflection (thoughtful engagement with a problem rather than intuitive responding). The cognitive reflection test (CRT), though, is interdependent with numerical literacy. Two non-mathematics versions of this test (CRTverbal) are integrated and evaluated here, concurrent with other individual difference measures, as predictors of Bayesian reasoning performance. Two studies found CRTverbal appears to measure a fairly unitary underlying construct that is correlated with Bayesian reasoning performance. However, all other measures were also correlated with Bayesian reasoning, as well as generally with each other (including numerical literacy correlating with CRTverbal). Stepwise regressions found that Bayesian reasoning was best predicted by visuospatial ability and sets reasoning ability, excluding numeracy, working memory (Experiment 1), and pattern extrapolation abilities (Experiment 2). Although cognitive reflection remains a predictor of some utility, these positive manifold patterns of results suggest a broader cognitive ability may be generating these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 13546783 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/13546783.2025.2466238 |
