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Cognitive reflection, visuospatial ability, and other measures as predictors of Bayesian reasoning.

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Title: Cognitive reflection, visuospatial ability, and other measures as predictors of Bayesian reasoning.
Authors: Brase, Gary L.1 (AUTHOR) gbrase@ksu.edu
Source: Thinking & Reasoning. Nov2025, Vol. 31 Issue 4, p529-545. 17p.
Subjects: Spatial ability, Cognitive ability, Statistical literacy, Individual differences, Pattern perception, Inferential statistics, Critical thinking
Abstract: Many individual difference variables predict Bayesian reasoning performance, including cognitive reflection (thoughtful engagement with a problem rather than intuitive responding). The cognitive reflection test (CRT), though, is interdependent with numerical literacy. Two non-mathematics versions of this test (CRTverbal) are integrated and evaluated here, concurrent with other individual difference measures, as predictors of Bayesian reasoning performance. Two studies found CRTverbal appears to measure a fairly unitary underlying construct that is correlated with Bayesian reasoning performance. However, all other measures were also correlated with Bayesian reasoning, as well as generally with each other (including numerical literacy correlating with CRTverbal). Stepwise regressions found that Bayesian reasoning was best predicted by visuospatial ability and sets reasoning ability, excluding numeracy, working memory (Experiment 1), and pattern extrapolation abilities (Experiment 2). Although cognitive reflection remains a predictor of some utility, these positive manifold patterns of results suggest a broader cognitive ability may be generating these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Thinking & Reasoning is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Cognitive reflection, visuospatial ability, and other measures as predictors of Bayesian reasoning.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Spatial+ability%22">Spatial ability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cognitive+ability%22">Cognitive ability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+literacy%22">Statistical literacy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Individual+differences%22">Individual differences</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pattern+perception%22">Pattern perception</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Inferential+statistics%22">Inferential statistics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Critical+thinking%22">Critical thinking</searchLink>
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  Data: Many individual difference variables predict Bayesian reasoning performance, including cognitive reflection (thoughtful engagement with a problem rather than intuitive responding). The cognitive reflection test (CRT), though, is interdependent with numerical literacy. Two non-mathematics versions of this test (CRTverbal) are integrated and evaluated here, concurrent with other individual difference measures, as predictors of Bayesian reasoning performance. Two studies found CRTverbal appears to measure a fairly unitary underlying construct that is correlated with Bayesian reasoning performance. However, all other measures were also correlated with Bayesian reasoning, as well as generally with each other (including numerical literacy correlating with CRTverbal). Stepwise regressions found that Bayesian reasoning was best predicted by visuospatial ability and sets reasoning ability, excluding numeracy, working memory (Experiment 1), and pattern extrapolation abilities (Experiment 2). Although cognitive reflection remains a predictor of some utility, these positive manifold patterns of results suggest a broader cognitive ability may be generating these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Thinking & Reasoning is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1080/13546783.2025.2466238
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Spatial ability
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      – SubjectFull: Statistical literacy
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      – SubjectFull: Individual differences
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      – SubjectFull: Pattern perception
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      – SubjectFull: Inferential statistics
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      – SubjectFull: Critical thinking
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              Text: Nov2025
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