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Ageing-dependent, multi-hazard fragility of monopile-supported offshore wind turbines.

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Title: Ageing-dependent, multi-hazard fragility of monopile-supported offshore wind turbines.
Authors: Zhang, Ziliang1 (AUTHOR) ziliang.zhang@soton.ac.uk, De Risi, Raffaele2 (AUTHOR) raffaele.derisi@bristol.ac.uk, Sextos, Anastasios G.1,2,3 (AUTHOR) a.sextos@bristol.ac.uk
Source: Soil Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering (0267-7261). Jan2026:Part B, Vol. 200, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Aging, Offshore wind power plants, Brittleness, Steel corrosion, Induced seismicity, Hazards, Wind waves, Erosion
Abstract: This paper presents time-dependent multi-hazard fragility functions for a monopile-supported 5 MW offshore wind turbine (OWT) under combined stochastic wind, wave and seismic loads. Ageing is considered by explicitly modelling two major deterioration phenomena: support structure zonal corrosion and monopile foundation scouring. A Latin Hypercube sampled, cloud-based, dual-intensity-measure (IM) fragility assessment framework is employed to produce multi-hazard fragility surfaces at nine evenly separated instants (0–40 years). Various model uncertainties were accounted for via a pre-defined multivariate probabilistic distribution. Failure probabilities at different ages were derived using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for selected Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs), where the full range of operational inflow wind speeds (3–25 m/s) was considered. Over time, the modal characteristics of the soil-foundation-structure system deviate from its original state. The probability of an OWT exceeding the ultimate limit state (ULS) criterion when subjected to a design-level combination of wind, wave and earthquake loads is not just nonnegligible but can increase considerably owing to ageing: by 66 % after 10 years of operation and 100 % after a typical 25-year design life. The results indicate the importance of multi-hazard coupling and provide a robust framework for assessing time-evolving fragility under joint earthquake-wind-wave loading. • Age-dependent, multi-hazard analysis incorporating wind, wave and earthquake loads. • Ageing affects OWT dynamics via Latin Hypercube sampled zonal corrosion and foundation scouring. • The modal characteristics of OWT changes with age. • OWT fragility doubles after 25 years subjected to a design-level load combination. • Fragility deterioration, owing to ageing, initiates fast and gradually slows down. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Soil Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering (0267-7261) is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 189337570
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Ageing-dependent, multi-hazard fragility of monopile-supported offshore wind turbines.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Ziliang%22">Zhang, Ziliang</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> ziliang.zhang@soton.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22De+Risi%2C+Raffaele%22">De Risi, Raffaele</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> raffaele.derisi@bristol.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sextos%2C+Anastasios+G%2E%22">Sextos, Anastasios G.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> a.sextos@bristol.ac.uk</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Soil+Dynamics+%26+Earthquake+Engineering+%280267-7261%29%22">Soil Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering (0267-7261)</searchLink>. Jan2026:Part B, Vol. 200, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Aging%22">Aging</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Offshore+wind+power+plants%22">Offshore wind power plants</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Brittleness%22">Brittleness</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Steel+corrosion%22">Steel corrosion</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Induced+seismicity%22">Induced seismicity</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Hazards%22">Hazards</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wind+waves%22">Wind waves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Erosion%22">Erosion</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This paper presents time-dependent multi-hazard fragility functions for a monopile-supported 5 MW offshore wind turbine (OWT) under combined stochastic wind, wave and seismic loads. Ageing is considered by explicitly modelling two major deterioration phenomena: support structure zonal corrosion and monopile foundation scouring. A Latin Hypercube sampled, cloud-based, dual-intensity-measure (IM) fragility assessment framework is employed to produce multi-hazard fragility surfaces at nine evenly separated instants (0–40 years). Various model uncertainties were accounted for via a pre-defined multivariate probabilistic distribution. Failure probabilities at different ages were derived using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for selected Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs), where the full range of operational inflow wind speeds (3–25 m/s) was considered. Over time, the modal characteristics of the soil-foundation-structure system deviate from its original state. The probability of an OWT exceeding the ultimate limit state (ULS) criterion when subjected to a design-level combination of wind, wave and earthquake loads is not just nonnegligible but can increase considerably owing to ageing: by 66 % after 10 years of operation and 100 % after a typical 25-year design life. The results indicate the importance of multi-hazard coupling and provide a robust framework for assessing time-evolving fragility under joint earthquake-wind-wave loading. • Age-dependent, multi-hazard analysis incorporating wind, wave and earthquake loads. • Ageing affects OWT dynamics via Latin Hypercube sampled zonal corrosion and foundation scouring. • The modal characteristics of OWT changes with age. • OWT fragility doubles after 25 years subjected to a design-level load combination. • Fragility deterioration, owing to ageing, initiates fast and gradually slows down. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Soil Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering (0267-7261) is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=189337570
RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.109900
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 1
        StartPage: N.PAG
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Aging
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Offshore wind power plants
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Brittleness
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Steel corrosion
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Induced seismicity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hazards
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wind waves
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Erosion
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Ageing-dependent, multi-hazard fragility of monopile-supported offshore wind turbines.
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            NameFull: Zhang, Ziliang
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            NameFull: De Risi, Raffaele
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            NameFull: Sextos, Anastasios G.
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            – D: 15
              M: 01
              Text: Jan2026:Part B
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 200
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            – TitleFull: Soil Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering (0267-7261)
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